Prague Economic Papers 2022, 31(1):79-114 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.793
Paradox of Excess Liquidity in European Emerging and Transition Economies
- a Duke Unversity, USA and AAB College, Kosovo
European emerging and transition economies are in immense need of investments and renewal of capital, yet they produce a considerable amount of unutilized resources. In particular, banks hold excess liquidity in the face of seemingly profitable lending opportunities. Is it a demand-side or supply-side problem or is this region entirely different and have we been working under the wrong paradigm? This study creates a new estimate of excess liquidity by taking into account banks' overall liquidity position. Breaking down precautionary from involuntary excess liquidity, a significant presence of the latter is evident. A part of the story deals with insensitivity of deposits to interest rates. Based on our standard understanding of how banks work, this is puzzling and this study creates a new way to look at this. Using new measures is the way to launch the investigation of causes and policy implications for involuntary excess liquidity.
Keywords: Excess liquidity, emerging economies, banks, European countries
JEL classification: D53, D60, E44, E52, G21, O16
Received: March 13, 2021; Revised: January 4, 2022; Accepted: January 10, 2022; Published: March 1, 2022 Show citation
References
- Agénor, P. R., Aynaoui, E. K. (2010). Excess liquidity, bank pricing rules, and monetary policy. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34, 923-933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.10.003
Go to original source...
- Agénor, P. R., Aizenman, J., Hoffmaister, A. W. (2004). The credit crunch in East Asia: What can bank excess liquid assets tell us? Journal of International Money and Finance, 231, 27-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2003.08.008
Go to original source...
- Aikaeli, J. (2011). Determinants of Excess Liquidity in Tanzanian commercial banks. The African Finance Journal 113, 47-63. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.971750
Go to original source...
- Aliu, F., Knapkova, A., Nadirov, O. (2016). Factors affecting interest rate risk: the case of Kosovo. Paper presented at the 6th EACO International Scientific Conference.
- Baldo, L., Hallinger, B., et al (2017). The distribution of excess liquidity in the euro area. European Central Bank Occasional Paper series No. 200.
Go to original source...
- Barajas, A., Chami, R., Ebeke, C., Oeking, A . (2018). What's different about monetary policy transmission in remittance-dependent countries? Journal of Development Economies, 134, 272-288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.05.013
Go to original source...
- Blanchard, O.J., Griffiths, M., Gruss, B. (2013). Boom, bust, recovery: Forensics of the Latvia crisis. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 442, 325-388.
Go to original source...
- Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2017). Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms: Bank for International Settlements.
- Bogoev, J., Petrevski, G. (2012). Interest rate pass-through in South East Europe: An empirical analysis. Economic Systems, 436, 571-593. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.03.001
Go to original source...
- Chami, R., Fullenkamp, C., Oeking, A. (2018). Are remittances good for labour markets in LICs, MICs and fragile states? IMF Working Paper No. 102.
Go to original source...
- Commission of the European Communities (1990). European Economy, December, 45.
- Cornett, M. M., McNutt, J. J., Strahan, P.E., Tehranian, H. (2011). Liquidity risk management and credit supply in the financial crisis. Journal of Finance and Economics, 1012, 297-312.
Go to original source...
- Darvas, Z., Pichler, D. (2018). Excess liquidity and bank lending risks in the euro area. European Parliament, Policy Issue No. 18.
- De Vroey, M., Malgrange, P. (2011). The History of Macroeconomics from Keynes's General Theory to the Present. Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales de l'Universite Catholique de Louvain Discussion Papers No. 28.
- Ding, W., Domaç, I., Ferri, G. (1998). Is there a credit crunch in East Asia? Asia Pacific Journal of Economics and Business, 22, 4-32.
- Drakos, K., Nicholas, G. (2011). On the determinants of credit rationing: Firm-level evidence from transition countries. Journal of International Money and Finance 30(8): 1773-1790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.09.004
Go to original source...
- ECB (2019a). Monetary statistics 2000-2018. Frankfurt: European Central Bank.
- ECB (2019b). Statistical bulletins 2000-2018. Frankfurt: European Central Bank.
- EMMI (2019). Euribor and Eonia rates 2000 - 2018. Brussels: European Money Markets Institute.
- FRED (2020). 5-Bank Asset Concentration. FRED Economic Data.
- Hasanoviæ, E., Latiæ, T. (2017). The Determinants of excess liquidity in the banking sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Working Paper HEIDWP11-2017.
- Hashi, I., Toçi, V. (2010). Financing constraints, credit rationing and financing obstacles: Evidence from firm-level data in South-Eastern Europe. Economic and Business Review, 112, 29-60.
Go to original source...
- Haughton, A., Iglesias, E. (2012). Interest rate volatility, asymmetric interest rate pass through and the monetary transmission mechanism in the Caribbean compared to US and Asia. Economic Models, 296, 2071-2089.
Go to original source...
- Hellström, K. (2009). Financial accounting quality in a European transition economy: The case of the Czech Republic. Dissertation. Stockholm School of Economics.
- Huang, T.H., Liu, N.H. (2014). Bank competition in transition countries: Are those markets really in equilibrium? Empirical Economics, 47, 1283-1316.
Go to original source...
- Intercontinental Exchange (2019). Libor rates 2000-2018.
- International Monetary Fund (2019). Bosnia and Herzegovina Technical Assistance report - implementation of a new reserve requirement framework.
- International Monetary Fund (2019a). World Economic Outlook WEO. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.asp Accessed in October 2019
- IMF (2019b). Financial Soundness Indicators FSIs. Washington: International Monetary Fund.
- IMF (2019c). IMF respective country reports 2003 - 2019. Washington: International Monetary Fund.
- IMF (2004). Monetary policy implementation at different stages of market development. Monetary and Financial Systems Department. Washington: International Monetary Fund.
Go to original source...
- Jaffee, D. M., Modigliani, F. (1969). A theory and test of credit rationing. American Economic Review, 559, 850-572.
- Jayaraman, T. K., Choong, C. K. (2012). Implications of excess liquidity in Fiji's banking system: An Empirical Study. Munich Personal RePEc Archive 43505.
- Jazbec, B., Kastrati, A. (2011). Unlocking Growth Potential in the Balkans, in Nowotny, E., Mooslechner, P., Ritzberger-Grünwald, D., ed., Post-Crisis Growth and Integration in Europe. Vienna: Edward Elgar, pp. 70-89.
Go to original source...
- Jovanovic, B., Krstevska, A., Popovska-Kamnar, N. (2015). Can monetary policy affect economic activity under surplus liquidity? Some Evidence from Macedonia. National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia Research Paper No. 03.
- Karilaid, I., Talpsepp, T., Vaarmets, T. (2014). Implications of the liquidity crisis in the Baltic-Nordic region. Baltic Journal of Economics (14)1-2, 35-54. https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2014.949603
Go to original source...
- Kastrati, A., Adnett, N., Toçi, V. (2018). The relationship between the output gap and excess liquidity: Evidence from Czech Republic, Estonia and Kosovo. Journal of Economics and Management, 311, 95-118. https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2018.31.05
Go to original source...
- Kastrati, A., Pugh, G., Toçi, V. (2017). Output gap in transition economies using unobserved components method: The case of Czech Republic, Estonia and Kosovo. Economic Thought and Practice, 123, 477-500.
- Khemrraj, T. (2013). Bank liquidity preference and the investment demand constraint. Economic Models, 33, 977-990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.008
Go to original source...
- Khemrraj, T. (2010). Excess Liquidity, Oligopoly Banking and Monetary Policy in Less Devel- oped Countries? Oxford Economic Papers, 62, 86-113. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpp013
Go to original source...
- Khemrraj, T. (2007). Monetary Policy and Excess Liquidity: The Case of Guyana. Journal of Social and Economic Studies, 563, 101-127.
- Manove, M., Padilla, J. A., Pagano, M. (2001). Collateral versus project screening: a model of lazy banks. RAND Journal of Economics, 432, 726-744. https://doi.org/10.2307/2696390
Go to original source...
- Männasoo, K., Meriküll. J. (2020). Credit constraints and R&D over the boom and bust: Firm-level evidence from Central and Eastern Europe. Economic Systems, 2, 44, 100747. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2020.100747
Go to original source...
- Mishkin, F. (2018). Improving the use of discretion in monetary policy. International Finance, 321, 224-238.
Go to original source...
- Mishra, P., Montiel, P. (2012). How effective is monetary transmission in Low-Income Countries? A survey of the empirical evidence. IMF Working Paper 143.
Go to original source...
- Morrison, G. (1966). Liquidity preferences of commercial banks. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
- Nguyen, V .H. T., Boateng, A., Newton, D. (2015). Involuntary excess reserves, the reserve requirements and credit rationing in China. Applied Economics, 1440, 1424-1437. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2014.995362
Go to original source...
- Nguyen, V. H. T., Boateng, A. (2015). Bank excess reserves in emerging economies: A critical review and research agenda. International Review of Financial Analysis, 39, 158-166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2015.02.005
Go to original source...
- Nguyen, V. H. T., Boateng, A., Pham, T. T. T. (2019). Involuntary excess reserve and heterogeneous transmission of policy rates to bank lending rates in China. Empirical Economics, 57, 1023-1044. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1468-x
Go to original source...
- OECD (1960-1987). National Accounts: Main Aggregates. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
- Primus, K. (2017). Excess reserves, monetary policy and financial volatility. Journal of Banking & Finance Pages, 74, 153-168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.08.005
Go to original source...
- Ruffer, R. Stracca, L. (2006). What is Global Excess Liquidity and Does It Matter?, ECB Working Paper 696.
Go to original source...
- Saxegaard, M. (2006). Excess liquidity and effectiveness of monetary policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. IMF Working Paper No. 115.
Go to original source...
- Syverson, C. (2019). Macroeconomics and Market Power: Context, Implications, and Open Questions. Journal of Economic Perspective, 333, 23-43. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.3.23
Go to original source...
- Waller, C. J., Lewarne, S. (1994). An Expository Model of Credit Rationing. Journal of Macroeconomics, 316, 539-545. https://doi.org/10.1016/0164-07049490022-1
Go to original source...
- World Bank (2019). Financial sector indicators. Washington: World Bank.
- World Bank (2019). Doing Business. Washington: World Bank.
- World Bank (2019). Economy and Growth Indicators. Washington: World Bank.
- World Bank (2019). Worldwide Governance Indicators. Washington: World Bank.
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.