G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; MortgagesReturn

This study develops a multi-dimensional composite index to measure financial inclusion in Ethiopia, using a two-stage Principal Component Analysis based on ten traditional and five digital indicators from 2015 to 2023. The results reveal a significant increase in Ethiopia’s financial inclusion score, rising from an average of 10.89% in 2015 to 52.18% in 2023. Among the dimensions, traditional availability (0.2625) is the most influential, followed by traditional usage (0.2616), digital accessibility (0.2505), and digital availability (0.2254). Further analysis reveals that the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia alone contributes 48.99% for financial inclusion score, while five medium-sized and eleven small-sized private banks collectively account for 29.26% and 21.75%, respectively. The developed index proves to be a valuable tool for policymaking and evaluation, addressing previous limitations like arbitrary weight selection. It offers a detailed perspective on financial inclusion trends among commercial banks in Ethiopia, consistent with existing studies.

This paper examines the validity of the risk-return trade-off for a sample of Czech banks over the period 2002-2022 by analysing the relationship between the bank risk and risk-adjusted returns. I find evidence of a significant negative association between the regulatory risk measure and risk-adjusted returns, indicating that the risk-return trade-off does not hold. Specifically, a 100 bps increase in the risk is associated with about a 7 bps decrease in the return on risk-adjusted assets (RORWA) and an 11 bps decrease in the risk-adjusted net interest margin (rNIM) in the short run. The long-run effect is about double for RORWA and almost triple for rNIM. I also find evidence that during the period of low interest rates, the effect for RORWA was about a half smaller, albeit still negative. On the contrary, when non-regulatory measures of risk or risk-adjusted profitability are used, the risk-return trade-off seems to hold.

Using developing countries in Europe for context, this study examines the complex relationship between financial crises and financial integration. We use panel data comprising 37 countries in Europe, including Iceland, Belarus, Ukraine, Turkey, and Russia from 2000-2019 and the general method of moments. Our findings show that there is a positive relationship between financial integration and development and economic growth. In addition, the results suggest that a higher degree of financial integration is not necessarily increasing financial fragility during a financial crisis. Therefore, the results show that it is a self-defeating policy for developing countries to apply a strategy of financial protectionism over a financial crisis.

Using a macro-level dataset covering 173 countries from 2000 to 2020, this study is the first attempt to examine how income diversification and market concentration are related to bank stability. Firstly, we document that bank stability is positively related to revenue diversification, suggesting that banks are more stable when they are more engaged in non-traditional activities. Secondly, market concentration is positively associated with bank stability, in line with the concentration-stability hypothesis that banks in a highly concentrated banking system are more likely to be more stable. Thirdly, we show that market concentration modifies the link between revenue diversification and bank stability. Specifically, it is shown that diversified banks are more stable in a more concentrated environment compared to those on a less concentrated market. These results are robust to multiple regression specifications with different proxies for bank stability and income diversification.

This study accounts for the nexus between financial development and intra-trade relationships using nine Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countries with the extraction of data from secondary sources spanning between 1990 and 2021. The following are the con- clusions drawn from the study: exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate, which are criti- cal macroeconomic variables, represent unfavourable factors that suppress the intra-trade rela- tionships within the RCEP region. In light of the above, this study recommends that any time the policymakers in RCEP countries desire better intra-trade relationships within RCEP countries, they should implement a unified monetary policy that will stimulate interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate in such a way that the intra-trade relationships will be enhanced among the RCEP countries.

This study evaluates the effects of opening new segments of mass rapid transit (MRT) lines on housing prices near the MRT stations in Tucheng District and Xinzhuang District, New Taipei City, Taiwan. The effect of proximity to each MRT station is estimated separately with difference-in-differences regressions integrated with spatial econometrics with heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors. The opening of the new segment of the Blue Line, also known as Bannan Line of the Taipei Metro, does not significantly influence housing prices within 600-metre road network distance of the MRT stations, compared to prices outside the distance range. In contrast, and also unlike the findings of prior studies, although the segment and the stations are underground structures, the opening of the new segment of the Orange Line, also known as the Zhonghe-Xinlu Line of the Taipei Metro, significantly decreases housing prices within 600-metre road network distance of the MRT stations, compared to prices outside the distance range, perhaps because the opening of the stations is delayed about one and a half years to be used as a temporary storage area for MRT trains. The findings have implications for homebuyers, investors, mortgage lending institutions and tax assessment authorities.

This paper examines the impact of financial market development, financial crises and deposit insurance on bank risk based on macro data of 86 countries during the period 1998-2014. The results show that banking sector development and stock market development have opposing effects on bank risk measured as bank non-performing loan ratio. The introduction of an explicit deposit insurance system plays a significant role in reducing banks’ risk. However, the bank market development after the introduction of this system also increases banks’ risk. The impact of financial market development and deposit insurance system on banks’ risk was more significant before the 2008 financial crisis. It is found that there is a nonlinear relationship between financial market development, deposit insurance, financial crises and banks’ risk. The stock market development has an asymmetric effect on banks’ risk.

Price changes on all international financial and commodity markets have shown a sig- nificant correlation. The correlation dependence increased due to macroeconomic changes that led to cyclical economic trends caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the new economic circumstances, there has been a change in investment strategy of individual and institutional investors. The investment portfolios have increased in demand related to the purchase of gold, seen as a safe-haven asset, which has led to significant growth in aggregate demand on the international precious metals market. This paper deals with a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between the investment in gold as an asset and the movement of major world market indices. We used cryptocurrency (bitcoin) volatility as an independent variable in the model. We tested its correlation to the other major market indices and gold as a safe-haven asset. Related to a proposed model based on GARCH DCC and the Generalised Reduced Gradient (GDR) algorithm, we set up the Hedging Effectiveness (HE) index and an optimally weighted investment portfolio.

European emerging and transition economies are in immense need of investments and renewal of capital, yet they produce a considerable amount of unutilized resources. In particular, banks hold excess liquidity in the face of seemingly profitable lending opportunities. Is it a demand-side or supply-side problem or is this region entirely different and have we been working under the wrong paradigm? This study creates a new estimate of excess liquidity by taking into account banks' overall liquidity position. Breaking down precautionary from involuntary excess liquidity, a significant presence of the latter is evident. A part of the story deals with insensitivity of deposits to interest rates. Based on our standard understanding of how banks work, this is puzzling and this study creates a new way to look at this. Using new measures is the way to launch the investigation of causes and policy implications for involuntary excess liquidity.

Foreign banks have played a major role in Central and Eastern European economic landscape over the last decades. They have spurred banking intermediation and fuelled economic growth for years. However, the global financial crisis unveiled the other side of the coin. This article analyses foreign banks' lending behaviour in Central and Eastern Europe over the period from 2000 to 2016. It aims to investigate the nexus between bank loan growth, cross-border bank claims and the cycle period. Moreover, it captures the impact of the financial cycle on foreign banks' credit behaviour and highlights whether foreign bank ownership is influenced by host- and home-country effects. Our findings reveal the strong nexus between foreign banks' loan growth and cross-border bank claims. Also, we emphasize the pro-cyclicality of foreign banks' loan growth and cross-border bank claims. Furthermore, we see clear differences related to foreign banks' lending behaviour during normal and turbulent times, triggered by host- and home-country effects. These results raise policy challenges regarding the right bank ownership balance and the use of prudential regulation.

 The aim of this study is to provide an overview of the principles of IFRS 9 implementation and to analyse its impact on the Czech banking sector. Unlike the previous IAS 39 standard, valid until the end of 2017, the new accounting rules require banks to estimate forward-looking expected credit losses (ECL) while considering relevant exposure level information as well as available macroeconomic predictions. Due to the increased complexity of the ECL models and changing macroeconomic expectations, we hypothesize that the new standard leads to increased volatility of loan loss allowances. This hypothesis is empirically tested and more or less confirmed by an analysis of the quarterly flows of allowances for a sample of large Czech banks from the years 2016-2017 under IAS 39 and from 2018-2019 under IFRS 9.

Although the use of residential real estate macroprudential tools has become common in recent years, rigorous approaches to their calibration have been relatively scarce. The goal of this paper is to present an approach to (i) evaluating direct risks to financial stability related to residential real estate exposures, and to (ii) calibrating borrower-based macroprudential measures. First we present a macroprudential indicator of potential losses related to the provision of new mortgage loans. Then we show how to determine risky values of the loan-to-value, loan-to-income and loan service-to-income ratios by per-forming stress tests on the individual new mortgage loans. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of this approach on the case of the Czech Republic. We conclude by show-ing that simultaneous adoption of several macroprudential measures may enhance their efficiency without imposing higher restrictions on the mortgage market.

This study aims to enhance the empirical evidence on the determinants of collateralized borrowing by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by presenting new empirical evidence on emerging market countries. Using the data from World Bank Enterprise Surveys from nine emerging markets, we find that older SMEs are less likely to provide collateral for bank loans. The results also reveal that loans received by firms whose top managers are more experienced in the industry and firms with a higher percentage of material inputs and services purchased on account are less likely to be secured. SMEs in the manufacturing industry are more likely to provide collateral for bank loans than service industry firms. The likelihood that the loan is secured is higher for firms with larger loan sizes. Furthermore, our results indicate that the probability of pledging collateral is higher for SMEs that operate in countries with higher borrower-bank proximity.

For successful monetary policy implementation, it is crucial to know the pricing behaviour of banks and the determinants of banks' lending rates. With the onset of the global financial crisis, markets in unsecured lending ceased to provide a reliable level of market costs, while markets in cross-currency products gained significance. The aim of this research is to gauge the extent to which the EUR-CZK cross-currency basis spread is reflected in the corporate lending rates provided by Czech banks. We discovered that just over 50% of the changes in the basis pass through to the lending rates. The greater part of this pass-through can be identified in EUR lending rates, which are, as a result, higher. In the case of CZK, the negative basis should tend to decrease the lending rates. However, the impact is fairly limited, and we were not able to confirm any significant long-run relationship.

We present a macro stress-testing model for banks' market and funding liquidity risks with a survival period of one year. The model follows the main principles of the Basel standards LCR and NSFR. Besides, the model takes into account the impact of both bank-specific and market-wide scenarios and includes second- round effects of shocks due to banks' feedback reactions. The presented methodology is then applied to a sample of Czech banks. This allows us to monitor the sensitivity of their liquidity position to the combination of shocks under consideration.

This paper contributes to the current literature dealing with drivers of bank business model changes. We analyse the relationship between fee and commission income share and banks' performance in terms of profitability, risk and risk-adjusted profitability in the European Union. We applied the System Generalized Method of Moments to a unique data set of 329 EU banks in the period 2005-2014, which resulted in three key findings. First, we did not find any diversification benefits by increasing the fee income share. Therefore, we can conclude that the increase in fee income share observed in recent years in EU banks was driven mainly by external factors, such as increased competition, rather than by internal reasons. Second, higher reliance on equity financing and better quality of provided loans enhance banks' performance. Third, bank business strategies and macroeconomic factors are crucial determinants of banks' performance.

The size of the shadow banking sector (SBS) has more than doubled in the Czech Republic over the last decade. This places a potential burden on policy makers. On the one hand, the SBS complements regular banking by expanding access to credit and investments, enabling better risk sharing and maturity transformation, and sup-porting market liquidity. On the other hand, SBS activities can put the stability of the financial system at risk and amplify its procyclicality by exacerbating the build-up of leverage and asset price bubbles. We implement a FAVAR model of the Czech economy to determine the impact of macroeconomic factors on the SBS. We find that the SBS: (i) is sensitive to changes in market interest rates and term spread; (ii) exhibits great procyclicality; (iii) can act as a complement to regular banking and satisfy some additional demand for credit. We also define some potential risks of continued growth of the SBS, linked to our empirical evidence.

This paper investigates how lender-borrower relationships affect credit cost for small and medium sized companies (SMEs). We use data within the period 2006–2015 for the Polish SME sector and deploy panel regression models to analyse how the number and length of banking relationships influence the financial costs of a random sample of Polish SMEs. We document that the price of capital decreases as relationships progress. Outcomes of the research are thus inconsistent with the “hold-up” hypothesis. Moreover, we find evidence that supports the view that multiple banking relationships generate more financial benefits for companies than a relationship with one lender.

The aim of this article consists in the analysis of the beta coefficient presented in different areas for three types of financial institutions: banks, investment banks and life insurance companies. In the final evaluation, we analyse whether the beta coefficient has a high tendency to reach number one and whether there is a relatively stabilized position of the beta coefficient different from one for a certain period and a certain financial institution on a certain market and whether it is possible to avoid a relatively complicated process of beta coefficient identification in income valuation. For that reason, the analysis of the five-year beta coefficient in the years 2000-2014 was performed for the USA, developed European, emerging European, developed Asian and emerging Asian regions. The analysis proved that the beta coefficient values are lower than the "magic one", meaning that using a beta coefficient equal to one is possible only in some specific cases. Also, stability of the beta coefficient with some permitted deviation was identified only for some financial institutions and for some markets, for example 0.6 for banks on the developed Asian market and 0.35 on the US market.

This study examines the role of firm-specific, macroeconomic, banking and financial environment factors in determining whether they were able to access external finance during the global financial crisis. Heckman's selection approach is used to model the demand and supply of credit in the euro area during and after the financial crisis period. We conclude that since 2011, when the rejection probabilities for external credit applications peaked, the chances of obtaining credit have improved. However, young and small firms are still more likely to have their credit applications rejected. A decrease in government support such as guarantees increases the probability of rejec-tion, as does a reduction in firms' own capital and a worsening credit history. Among the bank-specific factors, an increase in banks' equity capitalization reduces the rejection probability, while an increase in the cost of borrowed funds and a decrease in the competition levels raise the rejection probability. The legal structure to deal with insolvency disputes and the development of the credit information market have a significant bearing on credit availability, as we find that an increase in the time to resolve insolvencies and a reduction in adverse selection problems by credit information sharing increase the credit rejection probabilities.

This paper empirically assesses the financial performance of Czech credit unions in relation to other European cooperative banks in terms of their profitability and stability. We created a unique dataset of 283 cooperative banks from 15 European countries in the period 2006-2013. Using the system GMM and alternative panel data methods, we reveal worse performance of Czech credit unions in terms of both profitability and stability compared to their European peers. We also argue that big credit unions in the Czech Republic have assumed a non-sustainable business model depending on excessive risk taking while enjoying implicit subsidy via deposit insurance. In conclusion, we argue that under recent capital management policies, big Czech credit unions will likely face serious financial problems in coming years.

On a comprehensive duration data set covering 189 countries from 1960 to 2015, we employ a Heckman two-step selection model to investigate determinants of deposit insurance coverage. We find that macroeconomic status, bank structure and regulatory, political institution, legal system and deposit insurance design characteristics have a significant effect on deposit insurance coverage. Moreover, empirical results show that the impact factors are different between developing and developed countries, especially the design characteristics. Specifically, for developing countries, the scheme with the Foreign currency will support a higher coverage. And for developed countries, the Interbank deposits will lead to a lower coverage, but the No coinsurance shows the opposite effect. It is noteworthy that both the Payouts and Backstop from government influence the coverage setting conversely in different samples, which implies that there may be higher banks' risk-taking incentives in developing countries after setting up explicit deposit insurance system.

This paper investigates the short and long-run relationship between credit risk and two bank profitability indicators ROA and ROE in Central and Eastern European countries during the period from 2000 to 2010. Results from previous research mostly confirm the negative relationship between profitability and credit risk by considering the current or one year lagged value of profitability. Certain crisis indicates that more profitable banks before the crisis became more risky during the time of crisis. These results motivate us to upgrade the model of credit risk by including earlier values of profitability. Results indicate that two or three years are necessary for growth of profitability to increase credit risk. However, the long-run relationship between foreign banks' profitability and credit risk is positive, for both indicators. For the domestic bank, the long-run effect of ROA on credit risk is positive, while for ROE this relationship is negative.

This article focuses on bank valuation standards as some recommended steps how to evaluate some concrete commercial bank by the market value. Different approaches, methods and models were analysed and the final recomendations were stated. Basic valuation approaches such as the income approach, the market-based approach and the asset-based approach used for traditional entreprises valuation are recommended also for the commercial banks valuation, but it is necessary to adjust them according to some specifics of banks. After the precise analysis it is possible to recommend the application of Market-Based Valuation or in other words Relative Valuation in the combination with Bond Pricing Model. This is the best choice, but only in case there is some comparable bank or comparable transaction available. In the opposite case it is possible to recommend the application of the income approach based on DDM or DCFE in the combination with Bond Pricing Model or with Excess Return Model. Asset-Based Valuation could be used in case of valuation of different type of bank´s asset or in case of the valuation for accounting or tax purposes. The most important problem lies also in the identification of the coefficient beta that oscillates in case of the large maturity banks according to the "magic one".

Common exposure to macroeconomic risk factors across financial institutions is a source of a systemic risk that influences quality of banks´ loan portfolios. This paper focuses on the growing literature on credit risk determinants. The aim of the paper is to provide more general information on effects of macroeconomic drivers with the use of quantitative meta-analytic techniques. We consider five of the most common macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans ratio. The meta-regression results suggest that there are some significant differences among studies, which could be identified. For instance, data specification, estimation method, number of countries and observations included in the model play a significant role. In some cases, e.g. inflation and exchange rate, the size of the effects presented in journals with impact factor are significantly different from other types of studies included in the analysis. The sub-sample analysis mostly confirms meta-regressions results.

In this paper, we analyse the key determinants of bank fee and commission income in the European Union with a special emphasis on market concentration. On a sample of 258 EU banks during the 2007–2014 period, we apply System Generalized Method of Moments. First, we argue that the banks facing higher competition tend to expand more aggressively into non-traditional activities, and therefore they report a higher share of fee income in total income. Second, we found that a higher equity to assets ratio is related with higher shares of fee income since the bank needs more capital to prevent or manage the potential risks of the non-traditional activities. Finally, a high deposits to assets ratio tends to increase the fee income share, which may be possibly attributed to relatively high switching costs and to close depositor-bank relationship in the EU banks.

We surveyed representative sample of 1,004 adult Poles to check the extent to which they distinguish among the entities operating in the market for personal loans in Poland, how they perceive loans and lending entities, and what is their knowledge on lending/borrowing issues. Particularly, we were interested in getting the insight into the fragment of the market that is operated by personal loan companies, with special emphasis on the profile of the average (statistical) borrower. Our examination was motivated by the controversies surrounding the law amendment started in Poland in 2015 in order to regulate the fraction of the consumer credit market represented by personal loan companies. By utilizing logistic and multivariate linear regression models with variables obtained from our survey, we tested whether the legal reform was well-informed and well-addressed. We found that Polish households have serious problems with distinguishing various entities that provide loans to private individuals and that such problems manifest even greater problem of material shortcomings in Poles' debt literacy. We also evidenced low public trust to lending entities, particularly to loan companies. In the light of the findings the law amendment is well-grounded, however it should be supported by actions aimed at enhancing households' financial literacy.

In this paper, we contribute to the literature focusing on ethics in banking from both theoretical and empirical point of view. We argue that the recent business of the global banking industry is not sustainable and we believe that ethical banking may represent one of the alternative models. In the empirical section, we investigate how ethics in the banking business models affects their financial performance. We identified 69 ethical banks and compared them with conventional banks using Bankscope data of more than 80,000 bank-year observations for the 2003-2013 period. We apply the Within-Between estimation method to bank financial indicators of Return on Assets, Return on Equity and their respective volatilities. We conclude that ethical banks report significantly lower volatility in Return on Equity than their conventional counterparts. In addition, the hypothesis that ethical banks would have higher profitability than their peers is not rejected.

Risk management for banking products can be challenging in general, but is even more risky in a global, low interest rate environment. This paper deals with the risk management of savings accounts, a bank product defined as a non-maturing account with embedded option that bears a relatively attractive rate of return. We focus on the interest rate risk of savings accounts. By constructing the replicating portfolio and simulating market rates and client rates, we show that under the severest scenario, some banks in the Czech Republic might face a significant capital shortage in next two years if market rates start to increase dramatically from recent low levels. We conclude that savings accounts are riskier liabilities than current accounts and term deposits for banks. Moreover, we propose imposing stricter regulation and supervision on these bank products since they might increase systemic risk of the Czech banking sector in coming years.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the way in which capital influences profitability of banks and exposure to risk in seven European countries: Austria, Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Romania, the Netherlands and Hungary. Based on previous studies, we developed a model of simultaneous equations to analyse the relation between capital, risk and performance. The model includes 68 banks and covers the period between 2006 and 2011. In addition, estimations have been made for the three capital ratios (own capital ratio, tier 1 ratio and capital adequacy ratio) for each country included in this study. The obtained results have revealed the existence of a negative relationship between capital and taken risks and a positive relationship between capital and profitability, as well as between risk and profitability.

This study offers a scientific and methodical approach to identifying systemically important domestic banks based on the indicator-based measurement approach recommended by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. By improving both a set of criteria and indicators of a bank's systemic importance it is offered to distinguish its five levels - low, moderate, medium, significant and high. The approach was tested on 26 Ukrainian banks representing different groups (depending on the size of assets) according to the classification of the National Bank of Ukraine. We have discovered the absence of banks with high systemic importance in the period 2007-2011 - the majo-rity of banks are characterized by their moderate or low level. In our opinion, the best solution for systemic risk regulation would be the introduction of a differentiated regime of supervision over banks depending on their level of systemic importance and risk profile.

The aim of this paper is to find out determinants which affect the commercial banks' decision to lend on the interbank market in the Visegrad countries. The data cover the period from 2000 to 2011. The net interbank position of individual banking sectors significantly differs. Results of the probit model showed that banks' decision to lend in interbank market is determined both by bank-specific and macroeconomic factors. Bank liquidity, capital adequacy and quality of the loan portfolio are important bank-specific factors. Growth rate of the gross domestic products, unemployment rate, financial crisis and level of interest rates matter among macroeconomic factors. Although the Visegrad countries have a lot in common, different factors determined the banks' decision in individual countries. Moreover, the direction of influence of some factors may also differ.

The paper deals with the phenomenon of foreign bank ownership, which is prevalent in the countries of Central, Eastern and South Eastern European region as well as in New Zealand. Using a sample of 17 countries and filtering out more than 140 domestically operating foreign-owned banks, we examine the determinants of their performance in relation to host country conditions over the period of seven years between 2005 and 2011. Based on our knowledge, we use the largest data set in this respect compared to other researchers. Using system GMM and fixed effects models, we reveal that macroeconomic fundamentals of the host country affect the foreign-owned banks' performance but do not suffice in explaining it fully. This result points out that sound banks with higher operational efficiency operating in growing economies with low inflation rate tend to perform better than their peers.

The paper emphasizes that any approach to defining technical efficiency in banking is just a different outlook on manifold goals and functions that commercial banks pursue. Three commonly applied approaches, i.e. the service-oriented approach, the intermediation approach and the profitoriented approach, are not in conflict but are complementary in providing information on how commercial banks perform in financial intermediation, provision of banking services and profit seeking. In addition to the methodological contribution of the paper, it investigates the efficiency of the Slovak banking industry over the years 2000-2011 so as to find whether employment of a specific approach changes the view on efficiency of individual commercial banks. To this end, the non-parametric method of evaluation is employed based on the slack-based measure model of data envelopment analysis. The results suggest that general impressions of the efficiency status of individual banks as obtained within the three approaches are similar in most cases.

The influence of foreign banks on a host country's lending depends on several factors, including the policy of the parent bank, the strategy of entry, economic cycles in the home country and abroad, growth prospects, the indebtedness of commitments and the capital adequacy of the parent bank. During the most recent economic crisis, the credit supply of foreign banks in the 10 new European Union (EU) Member States has not remained stable in the crisis. More specifically, we find evidence that foreign banks have cut the credit supply slightly in the new EU Member States.

This paper empirically examines the possible causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Serbia. In this regard, the focus is on the development of financial intermediation by banks, considering the fact that the banking sector plays an important role in Serbian financial system. The empirical research is based on quarterly data for the period Q1 2004-Q4 2011 by using Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Our empirical findings suggest that process of economic growth contributes to process of financial deepening. On the other hand, the results indicate that there is a significant unidirectional causality that runs from both private enterprise credit to GDP and household credit to GDP to economic growth. Bidirectional causal relation is confirmed only between the share of bank credit to nonfinancial private sector in total domestic credit and economic growth rate.

The 2007-2009 global financial turmoil was exacerbated by a low level of financial market regulatory coordination. Historical experience has shown that despite implementing regulations, supervision and macroeconomic policies, the financial industry regularly experiences crises. Consequently, a similar impact might be expected from the Basel III new bank regulatory framework. The aim of this paper is two-fold; in the first part dedicated to theory we describe the Basel III regulatory standards and argue that this regulation is not sufficient and will not prevent financial markets from experiencing future crises. Moreover, we discuss implementation of new banking regulation in Europe: the Capital Requirements Directive IV and stricter capital requirements for European banks set by the European Banking Authority in 2011. In the second part, we focus on an empirical analysis of the impact of stricter capital requirements as defined in the Basel III framework on the market value of European banks. Our analysis employs the fixed effects methodology on the financial data collected from 172 banks listed on European stock exchanges during the 2005-2011 period. We conclude that the impact of the Basel III regulation on the value of bank shares will probably be perceived negatively by the market, which could be reflected in a drop in the market value of the observed banks.

The global banking system proved significantly vulnerable to systemic risk during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. In this paper, we construct an agent-based network model of systemic risk to a banking system, and use it for stress-testing of several different regulatory measures. First, our simulations confirm that sufficient capital buffers in individual banks are crucial for protecting the stability of the whole system. Second, we show that the regulatory measures installed as preventive measures to ensure that the banks possess sufficient capital buffers have almost no positive effects on stability when the system is collapsing. Finally, we highlight various data deficiencies which prevent the researchers and regulators from fully understanding the complete range of systemic risk and make it difficult to devise effective and targeted regulatory measures at this time.

This paper is devoted to the estimation of the probability of default (PD) as a crucial parameter in risk management, requests for loans, rating estimation, pricing of credit derivatives and many others key financial fields. Particularly, in this paper we will estimate the PD of US banks by means of the statistical models, generally known as credit scoring models. First, in theoretical part, we will briefly introduce the two main categories of credit scoring models, which will be afterwards used in application part - linear discriminant analysis and regression models (logit and probit), including testing the statistical significance of estimated parameters. In the main part of the paper we will work with the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks which will be separated into two groups (non-default and default) on the basis of historical information. Subsequently, we will stepwise apply the mentioned above scoring models on this sample to derive several models for estimation of PD. Further we will apply these models to the control sample to determine the most appropriate model.

We investigate the influence which the financial condition of a multinational bank group may have on the lending rates of its affiliates, using data from the ten biggest banks in the Czech Republic under foreign control. The analysis is based on a theory of bank lending in which the implicit opportunity costs of lending by a foreign bank affiliate are influenced by the scarcity of funds within the multinational conglomerate. The theory predicts that parent banks' influence should be stronger in loan segments with more pronounced information asymmetry. Our empirical model, which explains the interest rate charged by the affiliate by means of affiliate-level controls and a parent influence variable, is tested for three categories of commercial non-financial borrowers (domestically owned firms, foreign-owned firms and the self-employed). Evidence of parent influence is found in a limited number of cases of banks and borrower classes for which the constraint on fund flow within the parent bank group is likely to be tight, particularly when the borrower class is of strategic importance for the affiliate's overall performance.

The current financial crisis has boosted the efforts of international financial institutions to strengthen collaboration in the field of banking supervision, with a particular focus on macro prudential supervision. One of the stated objectives is the creation of a warning system, in which economic and financial vulnerabilities at the regional level will be coupled with the potential for spillovers or contagion between markets and countries. The aim of this study is to design an early warning system in order to highlight, at an earlier stage, the likelihood of deterioration of the Romanian banking system credit portfolio's quality. The paper focuses on the relationship between several macroeconomic and bank-specific variables and overdue and doubtful loans. The warning system developed will be used further to made predictions on the degree of credit portfolio impairment, under the auspices of the actual financial crisis.

Channels through which monetary policy affects aggregate demand can be divided into three groups: traditional interest rate channel, other asset price channels and credit channel composed of balance sheet channel (named also broad credit channel), only recently separated bank capital channel and bank lending channel. Banks face troubles in keeping their present or acquiring new financial sources, when central bank tightens its monetary policy. Banks characterized by differences in size, capitalization, liquidity and ownership face different levels of informational asymmetry and are therefore differently affected by changes in monetary policy. If larger, better capitalized, more liquid, state owned and/or domestically owned banks respond weaker to changes in monetary policy it is possible to argue that bank lending channel is effective. This hypothesis is tested on a panel of annual data for individual Slovenian banks in the period between 1993 and 2007 using general method of moments. Results largely confirm the existence of the bank lending channel in Slovenia.

This paper focuses on operational risk measurement techniques and on economic capital estimation methods. A data sample of operational losses provided by an anonymous Central European bank is analyzed using several approaches. Multiple statistical concepts such as the Loss Distribution Approach and the Extreme Value Theory, including scenario analysis method, are considered. Custom plausible loss events defined in a particular scenario are merged with the original data sample and their impact on capital estimates and on the financial institution as a whole is evaluated. Two main questions are assessed - what is the most appropriate statistical method to measure and model operational loss data distribution and what is the impact of hypothetical plausible events on the financial institution. The g&h distribution was evaluated to be the most suitable one for operational risk modeling. The method based on the combination of historical loss events modeling and scenario analysis provides reasonable capital estimates and allows for the measurement of the impact of very extreme events on banking operations.

This article presents a meta-regression analysis of 32 studies on frontier efficiency measurement in banking, focusing on the sensitivity of the reported estimates to the methodological design. Our findings suggest that study design is crucial for the resulting scores. The differences between the scores estimated using parametric and non-parametric approaches arise when the Fourierflexible functional form is used since this functional form yields lower scores. Generally, the higher the number of observations, the higher is the average estimated efficiency. The removal of scale effects using equity capital increases the profit efficiency but it is insignificant for other scores. The efficiency analysis should distinguish the commercial banking from other bank types because the former tends to deliver lower efficiency scores.

The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between non-performing loans and bank efficiency in Malaysia and Singapore. To achieve the objective, cost efficiency was estimated using the stochastic cost frontier approach assuming normal-gamma efficiency distribution model proposed by Greene (1990). The cost efficiency scores were then used in the second stage Tobit simultaneous equation regression to determine the effect of non-performing loans on bank efficiency. The results indicate that there is no significant difference in cost efficiency between banks in Singapore and Malaysia although banks in Singapore exhibit a higher average cost efficiency score. The Tobit simultaneous equation regression results clearly indicate that higher non-performing loan reduces cost efficiency. Likewise, lower cost efficiency increases non-performing loans. The result also support the hypothesis of bad management proposed by Berger and DeYoung (1992) that poor management in the banking institutions results in bad quality loans, and therefore, escalates the level of non-performing loans.

This paper introduces a model for stress testing of probability of default of individuals. The model rests on assumption that the individual defaults if his savings fall below zero. The probability of default is then described as a function of several macroeconomic indicators, such as wages, unemployment and interest rates. Stress testing is carried out by applying exogenous stress scenarios for development of these indicators. The model implies that sensitivity of probability of default to the stress is mainly driven by installment to income ratio and for mortgages also by loan maturity. Hence installment to income ratio is suggested as the appropriate tool to manage credit risk of retail portfolios.

The results of stress tests of the Czech banking sector based on credit risk and credit growth models, applied to the household and corporate sector are presented in the paper. The use of these newly developed models enables the stress tests to be linked to the CNB's official quarterly macroeconomic forecast. In addition, the article updates the stress scenarios, including simple sensitivity analyses of credit risk for individual sectors. Based on the analysis, an answer is sought to the question of whether the observed credit growth to corporate sector and households poses any threat to the stability of the banking sector. The analyses conclude that the banking sector as a whole seems to be resilient to the macroeconomic shocks under consideration.

This article sets out to describe and discuss the methodology of selected financial soundness and financial stability indicators, including the attempts to construct an aggregate financial stability indicator. The first part is devoted to discussion of Financial Stability Indicators by the International Monetary Fund and presents also the values of the IMF's core Financial Soundness Indicators for the Czech Republic and other selected countries, using the data from the 2005 pilot study. This part partly covers also other existing approaches to definition and collection of partial financial soundness indicators, such as the indicators regularly assessed by the European Central Bank. In the second part, the article reviews existing approaches to construct an aggregate financial stability indicator. These include alternative approaches using balance sheet and profit and loss data, as well as financial market and regulatory agencies' data. The last part constructs a preliminary composite indicator for the stability of the Czech banking system and discusses its development over time.

An exposure to macroeconomic risk factors across banks is a source of systemic risk that influences the banking sector performance. In this paper, we present some evidence on macroeconomic variables affecting the non-performing loans (NPL) ratio in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia. The GDP growth might have improved borrowers' ability to serve their bank loans in Slovenia, meanwhile the accelerating NPL ratio dynamics has failed to support the hypothesis that the GDP growth fosters an improvement in the NPL ratio in the case of Slovakia. Meanwhile deceleration in the NPL ratio on export impulses has supported a procyclical theory in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia. The response of non-performing loans to inflation supports the hypothesis about the lowering inflation that decelerates the NPL ratio. Savings have accelerated the NPL ratio in the case of Slovakia and Slovenia. The banking sector performance is possibly reflecting a favourable assessment of the economic growth and an increasing indebtedness of private sector could become causes of concern if the macroeconomic environment should develop less favourably.

Due to the capital decree legislated by the Bank of Slovenia, Slovenian commercial banks can apply internal models for capital requirements calculation for currency risk and selected market risks (general position risk in line with debt and equity instruments, price change risk for commodities) as an alternative or in combination with standardised methodology. In risk management process banks consider the first and the second moment of a yield probability distribution as portfolio managers seek to achieve the best possible trade-off between risk represented by variance of returns and expected return. In cases when liquidity of instruments on financial markets is low, banks should consider also the third (skewness) and the fourth (kurtosis) moment of a yield probability distribution. All moments define the characteristics of yield probability distribution and therefore affect the risk measure value, being calculated on the basis of yield probability distribution function. The goal of this paper is to calculate the third moment of a yield probability distribution functions for a set of selected assets in financial market in Slovenia and to initiate implementation of a proper risk measure when yield distribution function is not elliptic.

Banks played a central and, at times, controversial, role in the post-1989 transformation of the Czech economy. This article is trying to assess that role by setting it in a historical and comparative context. Economic historians have specified two broad models of banking behaviour, although the differences can be exaggerated. Transition economies show some common characteristics, but past history gave Czech banks a particularly important role and policy makers pursued a conception under which they would finance rapid economic transformation, partly following a model from the past. With varying degrees of willingness, established banks took on this role, undermining their own financial solidity. As the Czech road ran into difficulties, so a different conception of banks' development was adopted, closer to policies more familiar across Central and Eastern Europe.