Prague Economic Papers 2022, 31(1):79-114 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.793

Paradox of Excess Liquidity in European Emerging and Transition Economies

Albulenë Kastrati ORCID...a
a Duke Unversity, USA and AAB College, Kosovo

European emerging and transition economies are in immense need of investments and renewal of capital, yet they produce a considerable amount of unutilized resources. In particular, banks hold excess liquidity in the face of seemingly profitable lending opportunities. Is it a demand-side or supply-side problem or is this region entirely different and have we been working under the wrong paradigm? This study creates a new estimate of excess liquidity by taking into account banks' overall liquidity position. Breaking down precautionary from involuntary excess liquidity, a significant presence of the latter is evident. A part of the story deals with insensitivity of deposits to interest rates. Based on our standard understanding of how banks work, this is puzzling and this study creates a new way to look at this. Using new measures is the way to launch the investigation of causes and policy implications for involuntary excess liquidity.

Klíčová slova: Excess liquidity, emerging economies, banks, European countries
JEL classification: D53, D60, E44, E52, G21, O16

Vloženo: 13. březen 2021; Revidováno: 4. leden 2022; Přijato: 10. leden 2022; Zveřejněno: 1. březen 2022  Zobrazit citaci

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Kastrati, A. (2022). Paradox of Excess Liquidity in European Emerging and Transition Economies. Prague Economic Papers31(1), 79-114. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.793
Stáhnout citaci

Reference

  1. Agénor, P. R., Aynaoui, E. K. (2010). Excess liquidity, bank pricing rules, and monetary policy. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34, 923-933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.10.003 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  2. Agénor, P. R., Aizenman, J., Hoffmaister, A. W. (2004). The credit crunch in East Asia: What can bank excess liquid assets tell us? Journal of International Money and Finance, 231, 27-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2003.08.008 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  3. Aikaeli, J. (2011). Determinants of Excess Liquidity in Tanzanian commercial banks. The African Finance Journal 113, 47-63. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.971750 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  4. Aliu, F., Knapkova, A., Nadirov, O. (2016). Factors affecting interest rate risk: the case of Kosovo. Paper presented at the 6th EACO International Scientific Conference.
  5. Baldo, L., Hallinger, B., et al (2017). The distribution of excess liquidity in the euro area. European Central Bank Occasional Paper series No. 200. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  6. Barajas, A., Chami, R., Ebeke, C., Oeking, A . (2018). What's different about monetary policy transmission in remittance-dependent countries? Journal of Development Economies, 134, 272-288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.05.013 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  7. Blanchard, O.J., Griffiths, M., Gruss, B. (2013). Boom, bust, recovery: Forensics of the Latvia crisis. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 442, 325-388. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  8. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2017). Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms: Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Bogoev, J., Petrevski, G. (2012). Interest rate pass-through in South East Europe: An empirical analysis. Economic Systems, 436, 571-593. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.03.001 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  10. Chami, R., Fullenkamp, C., Oeking, A. (2018). Are remittances good for labour markets in LICs, MICs and fragile states? IMF Working Paper No. 102. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  11. Commission of the European Communities (1990). European Economy, December, 45.
  12. Cornett, M. M., McNutt, J. J., Strahan, P.E., Tehranian, H. (2011). Liquidity risk management and credit supply in the financial crisis. Journal of Finance and Economics, 1012, 297-312. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  13. Darvas, Z., Pichler, D. (2018). Excess liquidity and bank lending risks in the euro area. European Parliament, Policy Issue No. 18.
  14. De Vroey, M., Malgrange, P. (2011). The History of Macroeconomics from Keynes's General Theory to the Present. Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales de l'Universite Catholique de Louvain Discussion Papers No. 28.
  15. Ding, W., Domaç, I., Ferri, G. (1998). Is there a credit crunch in East Asia? Asia Pacific Journal of Economics and Business, 22, 4-32.
  16. Drakos, K., Nicholas, G. (2011). On the determinants of credit rationing: Firm-level evidence from transition countries. Journal of International Money and Finance 30(8): 1773-1790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.09.004 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  17. ECB (2019a). Monetary statistics 2000-2018. Frankfurt: European Central Bank.
  18. ECB (2019b). Statistical bulletins 2000-2018. Frankfurt: European Central Bank.
  19. EMMI (2019). Euribor and Eonia rates 2000 - 2018. Brussels: European Money Markets Institute.
  20. FRED (2020). 5-Bank Asset Concentration. FRED Economic Data.
  21. Hasanović, E., Latić, T. (2017). The Determinants of excess liquidity in the banking sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Working Paper HEIDWP11-2017.
  22. Hashi, I., Toçi, V. (2010). Financing constraints, credit rationing and financing obstacles: Evidence from firm-level data in South-Eastern Europe. Economic and Business Review, 112, 29-60. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  23. Haughton, A., Iglesias, E. (2012). Interest rate volatility, asymmetric interest rate pass through and the monetary transmission mechanism in the Caribbean compared to US and Asia. Economic Models, 296, 2071-2089. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  24. Hellström, K. (2009). Financial accounting quality in a European transition economy: The case of the Czech Republic. Dissertation. Stockholm School of Economics.
  25. Huang, T.H., Liu, N.H. (2014). Bank competition in transition countries: Are those markets really in equilibrium? Empirical Economics, 47, 1283-1316. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  26. Intercontinental Exchange (2019). Libor rates 2000-2018.
  27. International Monetary Fund (2019). Bosnia and Herzegovina Technical Assistance report - implementation of a new reserve requirement framework.
  28. International Monetary Fund (2019a). World Economic Outlook WEO. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.asp Accessed in October 2019
  29. IMF (2019b). Financial Soundness Indicators FSIs. Washington: International Monetary Fund.
  30. IMF (2019c). IMF respective country reports 2003 - 2019. Washington: International Monetary Fund.
  31. IMF (2004). Monetary policy implementation at different stages of market development. Monetary and Financial Systems Department. Washington: International Monetary Fund. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  32. Jaffee, D. M., Modigliani, F. (1969). A theory and test of credit rationing. American Economic Review, 559, 850-572.
  33. Jayaraman, T. K., Choong, C. K. (2012). Implications of excess liquidity in Fiji's banking system: An Empirical Study. Munich Personal RePEc Archive 43505.
  34. Jazbec, B., Kastrati, A. (2011). Unlocking Growth Potential in the Balkans, in Nowotny, E., Mooslechner, P., Ritzberger-Grünwald, D., ed., Post-Crisis Growth and Integration in Europe. Vienna: Edward Elgar, pp. 70-89. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  35. Jovanovic, B., Krstevska, A., Popovska-Kamnar, N. (2015). Can monetary policy affect economic activity under surplus liquidity? Some Evidence from Macedonia. National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia Research Paper No. 03.
  36. Karilaid, I., Talpsepp, T., Vaarmets, T. (2014). Implications of the liquidity crisis in the Baltic-Nordic region. Baltic Journal of Economics (14)1-2, 35-54. https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2014.949603 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  37. Kastrati, A., Adnett, N., Toçi, V. (2018). The relationship between the output gap and excess liquidity: Evidence from Czech Republic, Estonia and Kosovo. Journal of Economics and Management, 311, 95-118. https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2018.31.05 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  38. Kastrati, A., Pugh, G., Toçi, V. (2017). Output gap in transition economies using unobserved components method: The case of Czech Republic, Estonia and Kosovo. Economic Thought and Practice, 123, 477-500.
  39. Khemrraj, T. (2013). Bank liquidity preference and the investment demand constraint. Economic Models, 33, 977-990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.008 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  40. Khemrraj, T. (2010). Excess Liquidity, Oligopoly Banking and Monetary Policy in Less Devel- oped Countries? Oxford Economic Papers, 62, 86-113. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpp013 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  41. Khemrraj, T. (2007). Monetary Policy and Excess Liquidity: The Case of Guyana. Journal of Social and Economic Studies, 563, 101-127.
  42. Manove, M., Padilla, J. A., Pagano, M. (2001). Collateral versus project screening: a model of lazy banks. RAND Journal of Economics, 432, 726-744. https://doi.org/10.2307/2696390 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  43. Männasoo, K., Meriküll. J. (2020). Credit constraints and R&D over the boom and bust: Firm-level evidence from Central and Eastern Europe. Economic Systems, 2, 44, 100747. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2020.100747 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  44. Mishkin, F. (2018). Improving the use of discretion in monetary policy. International Finance, 321, 224-238. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  45. Mishra, P., Montiel, P. (2012). How effective is monetary transmission in Low-Income Countries? A survey of the empirical evidence. IMF Working Paper 143. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  46. Morrison, G. (1966). Liquidity preferences of commercial banks. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  47. Nguyen, V .H. T., Boateng, A., Newton, D. (2015). Involuntary excess reserves, the reserve requirements and credit rationing in China. Applied Economics, 1440, 1424-1437. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2014.995362 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  48. Nguyen, V. H. T., Boateng, A. (2015). Bank excess reserves in emerging economies: A critical review and research agenda. International Review of Financial Analysis, 39, 158-166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2015.02.005 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  49. Nguyen, V. H. T., Boateng, A., Pham, T. T. T. (2019). Involuntary excess reserve and heterogeneous transmission of policy rates to bank lending rates in China. Empirical Economics, 57, 1023-1044. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1468-x Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  50. OECD (1960-1987). National Accounts: Main Aggregates. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
  51. Primus, K. (2017). Excess reserves, monetary policy and financial volatility. Journal of Banking & Finance Pages, 74, 153-168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.08.005 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  52. Ruffer, R. Stracca, L. (2006). What is Global Excess Liquidity and Does It Matter?, ECB Working Paper 696. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  53. Saxegaard, M. (2006). Excess liquidity and effectiveness of monetary policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. IMF Working Paper No. 115. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  54. Syverson, C. (2019). Macroeconomics and Market Power: Context, Implications, and Open Questions. Journal of Economic Perspective, 333, 23-43. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.3.23 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  55. Waller, C. J., Lewarne, S. (1994). An Expository Model of Credit Rationing. Journal of Macroeconomics, 316, 539-545. https://doi.org/10.1016/0164-07049490022-1 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
  56. World Bank (2019). Financial sector indicators. Washington: World Bank.
  57. World Bank (2019). Doing Business. Washington: World Bank.
  58. World Bank (2019). Economy and Growth Indicators. Washington: World Bank.
  59. World Bank (2019). Worldwide Governance Indicators. Washington: World Bank.

Tento článek je publikován v režimu tzv. otevřeného přístupu k vědeckým informacím (Open Access), který je distribuován pod licencí Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), která umožňuje nekomerční distribuci, reprodukci a změny, pokud je původní dílo řádně ocitováno. Není povolena distribuce, reprodukce nebo změna, která není v souladu s podmínkami této licence.