Q47 - Energy ForecastingReturn

Although it is notoriously difficult to utilize financial ratios to forecast the crude oil market prices, our study challenges this perception and reveals that the second risk premium principal component analysis (RP-PCA) factor may contain statistically significant information for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts of future crude oil prices. Our evidence illustrates that the second RP-PCA factor substantially outperforms many other popular predictors (approximately 30 conventional predictors) in forecasting crude oil prices and generating adequate higher values of economic profits. We conduct a range of informative tests, including bootstrap simulation, success ratio tests, alternative out-of-sample evaluation periods, and structure break tests. Furthermore, we illustrate that the forecasting ability of the second RP-PCA factor may stem from its ability to forecast oil market sentiment. Our study presents a novel and indicatable financial instrument for policymakers to predict crude oil prices robustly. The theoretical motivation of this study links to Cochrane's (2005) framework for general candidate factors in asset pricing.

Electricity forward contracts can normally be traded in two ways in the Czech Republic: OTC forwards, which means bilaterally or bilaterally through a broker, and futures through the Power Exchange Central Europe. Each way has its own economic pros and cons. As the most crucial point, a counterparty risk and costs of funding are usually mentioned. Contracts traded on the power exchange bear less or no credit risk, as every deal is paired via central counterparty. On the other hand, the power exchange requires a margin deposit and daily profit and loss settlement which might increase funding costs. The fact that the counterparty risk is lower for exchange contracts with higher funding costs is well-known, but rarely quantified. We use the so-called Credit Value Adjustment concept in order to quantify the market value of the credit risk. We compare this value with potential funding costs. The aim of this paper is to compare both the OTC and exchange ways of trading using risk-adjusted economic characteristics.