P52 - Comparative Studies of Particular EconomiesReturn

This paper suggests that real GDP is not an appropriate indicator for long-term comparisons of the performance of transformation and post-transformation economies either with developed economies, or one with another, or across different phases of development of a single economy. We analyse the possible reasons why real GDP diverges from the theoretical concept of the objective level of value added adjusted for inflation. These reasons concern real exchange rate appreciation and overestimation of inflation due to quality changes in output after the collapse of central planning. To overcome the shortcomings of real GDP in explaining the true "transformation story" we develop the concept of "comparable" real GDP. This concept is calculated from nominal GDP, the exchange rate against the euro, and inflation in the euro area. While the differences between "standard" real GDP and "comparable" real GDP are modest and temporary in advanced economies, they are quantitatively and qualitatively significant and persistent in transformation and post-transformation economies. On the basis of the relevant literature we introduce two modifications of "comparable" real GDP. They account for likely differences in productivity patterns between tradables and non-tradables and between the performance of the export and non-export segments of the economy respectively. We conclude that true convergence is proceeding at a significantly higher pace than real GDP implies and that the Czech economy is converging to the euro area somewhat faster than the Polish economy and much faster than the Hungarian economy.

This paper analyses various aspects of industrial restructuring across all ten Central and East European (CEE) candidate countries for EU membership during the last decade and provides also some comparisons with current EU Member States. The impressive structural adjustments that have taken place in CEE industries since the beginning of transition brought the structure of manufacturing industry in the majority of CEE candidate countries fairly close to the European pattern both in terms of production and employment. Technology-driven industries account for a growing share of exports in nearly all candidate countries, while labour-intensive industries have growing export shares only in less advanced candidates such as Bulgaria, Romania and in the Baltic states. The initial export specialization pattern of the more advanced CEE candidate countries has thus nearly completely reversed; a remarkable upgrading towards more sophisticated and less capital-intensive industries has occurred.

This paper is aimed at addressing general characteristics of growth and development that concerns all transition countries before their accession to the EU when their convergence to the EU average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is expected. By looking back at the GDP statistics of major industrial countries for the last 90 years, a question is posed why some countries get on a path of a fast growth while some others go from one secular crisis to another. In assessing the policies supporting growth it is concluded that conditions on the company and industry level are more important than national macroeconomic policies.

This paper analyzes development of the ownership structures in Czech voucher-privatized firms during 1996 - 1999. The period can be characterized by increasing ownership concentration uniformly across all categories of owners with exception of banks. Within frequent changes uncovered by cluster analysis, higher ownership concentration was found to preserve itself. In general, investment funds and portfolio companies recorded the highest average concentration increase. Industrial companies and individual owners were found to be the most stable type of owner. Sector perspective shows that while in 1996 the firms do not exhibit excessive differences among sector specific attributes with respect to the proportion of stake held, in 1999 they do.