N10 - Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: General, International, or ComparativeNávrat zpět

This paper suggests that real GDP is not an appropriate indicator for long-term comparisons of the performance of transformation and post-transformation economies either with developed economies, or one with another, or across different phases of development of a single economy. We analyse the possible reasons why real GDP diverges from the theoretical concept of the objective level of value added adjusted for inflation. These reasons concern real exchange rate appreciation and overestimation of inflation due to quality changes in output after the collapse of central planning. To overcome the shortcomings of real GDP in explaining the true "transformation story" we develop the concept of "comparable" real GDP. This concept is calculated from nominal GDP, the exchange rate against the euro, and inflation in the euro area. While the differences between "standard" real GDP and "comparable" real GDP are modest and temporary in advanced economies, they are quantitatively and qualitatively significant and persistent in transformation and post-transformation economies. On the basis of the relevant literature we introduce two modifications of "comparable" real GDP. They account for likely differences in productivity patterns between tradables and non-tradables and between the performance of the export and non-export segments of the economy respectively. We conclude that true convergence is proceeding at a significantly higher pace than real GDP implies and that the Czech economy is converging to the euro area somewhat faster than the Polish economy and much faster than the Hungarian economy.

This paper is aimed at addressing general characteristics of growth and development that concerns all transition countries before their accession to the EU when their convergence to the EU average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is expected. By looking back at the GDP statistics of major industrial countries for the last 90 years, a question is posed why some countries get on a path of a fast growth while some others go from one secular crisis to another. In assessing the policies supporting growth it is concluded that conditions on the company and industry level are more important than national macroeconomic policies.