J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant WorkersReturn

This paper analyzes possible incidence of Turkish EU accession on the emigration from Turkey to the European Union. Panel data estimators are applied on the emigration data from EU-18 into Germany in order to construct possible future scenarios of Turkish migration to the EU. Eventual migration flows from Turkey into the EU are forecasted based on the estimated results. We find that seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator that can be applied in Turkey-EU migration framework. Our results reveal that both the network effect and target country labour market conditions represent the strongest determinants for migration, whilst the effect of per capita income is actually relatively low. In particular, Turkish per capita income does not have nearly any effect on migration, because it enters the model in two variables that work against each other. Furthermore, a very low importance of opening the German labour market for Turkish migrants is found. Estimated coefficients are used to predict migrations to Germany, and through appropriate extrapolations to the whole European Union (EU). Three scenarios of migration are created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Turkey into the Germany during next 25 years is further discussed in detail.

A proper picture of the Czech labour market emerges by focusing on its nuanced details from various perspectives. First we focus on the specific phases of the labour market as it developed in the 1990s. Second, we observe the changing composition of the labour force and labour mobility. Third, we examine the vulnerable categories of people. Policies, active labour market policies in particular, are described in the fourth section. Fifthly, we analyse the flexibility of the labour market in its various forms. In conclusion, several questions regarding the future of the Czech labour market are raised: predominant montage character of the Czech economy and labour force, weak work commitment, growing differentiation of the labour market and a weak legal and institutional environment of business and employment.

This article aims at investigating the nature of the causal relationship between immigration and economic development measured by GDP per capita in Norway using Granger causality test. The results on the unit root test indicate that all the series are non-stationary and are in I(1) process. The Johansen cointegration test reveals that there is no cointegration among the data sets. The Granger causality test shows that when the level of immigration increases, GDP per capita also increases. It has also been found that immigration has no impact on unemployment, and vice versa.