I26 - Returns to EducationReturn

The objective of the paper is to investigate the relationship between education and employment level in 27 member countries of OECD over the period 1998-2019. To achieve this, the paper first analyses the effect of the number of graduates from upper secondary, post-secondary and tertiary education programmes. Additionally, the paper constructs an education index which covers graduates from upper secondary, post-secondary and tertiary education programmes. After calculating distribution of graduates using the standard deviation method, the paper employs two-step system GMM developed by Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998). The findings show that graduates from upper secondary, post-secondary and tertiary education, as well as the distribution of graduates, have a positive effect on employment, respectively. It is expected that policymakers consider the effect of graduates from different education levels on employment to design substantial education and employment strategies.

In the 1990s, the transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe witnessed an upward trend in returns to education, unlike in Western European countries. This upward trend led to much higher returns than in what was observed in the communist period or compared to the West. The surveys EU-SILC collected since 2005 show that although returns to tertiary education were converging across Europe, there is still a big difference between East and West, with returns considerably higher in the East. Panel analysis reveals also substantial differences in the factors behind returns to tertiary education in the East and the West. The assumed negative relationship between the share of tertiary-educated workers in the working-age population and the returns to tertiary education were confirmed only in the West. The job vacancy rate has a significant negative impact on returns to tertiary education only in the East. While in the West the labour market seems to react more to labour supply, in the East labour demand plays a more important role.