H56 - National Security and WarReturn

This study investigates the impact of terrorism on financial markets, focusing specifically on Turkey's sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums from 2011 to 2017 - period characterized by frequent and diverse terrorist activities. Employing an EGARCH model with dummy variables for various terrorist groups, we analyze immediate and short-term market reactions across different event windows. Our findings reveal significant volatility in CDS premiums following terrorist incidents, with market responses varying depending on the terrorist group perpetrating the incident. This study enhances the understanding of capital market reactions on terrorist events through CDS instruments, highlighting their role in assessing sovereign credit and country risk.

The changing social status of pensioners is described and structured according to stylized periods. First, I identify the salient features of the communist regime that shifted pensioners to the margins of society. Second, I attempt to trace how the position of pensioners changed as a result of the democratic transition, which empowered pensioners as voters and which led to their rising relative income. Third, I review the recent debate about pension reform - which, as an unresolved issue, has entailed the maintenance of the status quo - and pensioners' swing towards the left. Fourth, the possible impact of current reform proposals on the future income of pensioners are considered. In conclusion, the importance of bringing children back into the pension system and increasing the activity rate of older persons are stressed.