H30 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: GeneralReturn

Uncertainty is one of the most important issues for economic actors. Uncertainty about tax, expenditure and debt policy has an impact on the economy. The central question in this study asks how fiscal policy uncertainty affects the Turkish economy. First, we quantify Turkey's fiscal policy uncertainty index based on volatility measurements between 1998Q1 and 2020Q4. This index represents major fiscal, economic and political incidents in Turkey. Next, we analyse the effects of fiscal policy uncertainty on the Turkish economy using a VAR model. Our study finds that fiscal policy uncertainty shocks have detrimental and long-lasting effects on the Turkish economy. The results indicated that a positive standard deviation shock in fiscal policy uncertainty decreases the confidence, output and consumption. The findings of this study reveal critical fiscal policy implications for decision-makers. These findings imply that reducing Turkey's fiscal policy uncertainty is a critical policy priority for the business cycle fluctuations.

In this study, sustainability of budget deficits in Turkey is examined empirically for the pe- riod from January 2006 to September 2020, using time series techniques based on monthly data, under the intertemporal budget constraint approach. In the analysis phase, the Johansen cointegration method was used for the long-term relationship of the series. Analysis results indicated that income and expenditure series are not cointegrated. It is concluded that budget policies for the period under consideration in Turkey are unsustainable; therefore, the applied fiscal policies should be reviewed.

The aim of the article is to answer the question whether the tax benefits that can be obtained by the self-employed in Poland influence the decision to start their own business. In the study, the EUROMOD microsimulation model is used to determine tax benefits from self-employment. The estimated tax benefits are then used in a probit regression to explain the probability of self-employment. The survey is carried out for both original EU-SILC data and adjusted data, assuming that the income reported by the self-employed is underreported. The results of the survey based on the original data indicate that taxpayers make irrational decisions about taking up self-employment. This is because as the benefits of self-employment increase, the probability of self-employment decreases. After ad-justing the data on self-employed income with the underreported income, the results of the analysis lead to the opposite conclusion.

In this article we analyse the evolution of the relationship between budget and trade deficits in Turkey covering the period 1985:1 to 2013:4. The structural break tests suggest the existence of a regime shift after the severe 2001 crisis. Time-varying responses obtained from the TVP-VAR model up to 2003 support the Keynesian view by providing evidence in favour of twin deficits, whereas the remaining responses suggest the remarkable divergence between fiscal and trade deficits.

Within the non-stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model framework this paper examines the implications of alternative fiscal consolidation programs for small open economy. The calibrated model enables realistically quantify the impact of the deficit financing and fiscal consolidation on consumption and saving of households, investment of firms and thereby on the capital stock and real interest rates. Through the interest rate link the impact of deficit financing and fiscal consolidation on cyclical and long-term properties of monetary policy set-up can be observed. Several fiscal consolidations were simulated in order to demonstrate the comparative statics and differences in dynamic paths of above mentioned variables.