G33 - Bankruptcy; LiquidationReturn

Using a macro-level dataset covering 173 countries from 2000 to 2020, this study is the first attempt to examine how income diversification and market concentration are related to bank stability. Firstly, we document that bank stability is positively related to revenue diversification, suggesting that banks are more stable when they are more engaged in non-traditional activities. Secondly, market concentration is positively associated with bank stability, in line with the concentration-stability hypothesis that banks in a highly concentrated banking system are more likely to be more stable. Thirdly, we show that market concentration modifies the link between revenue diversification and bank stability. Specifically, it is shown that diversified banks are more stable in a more concentrated environment compared to those on a less concentrated market. These results are robust to multiple regression specifications with different proxies for bank stability and income diversification.

The paper investigates the relationship of financial leverage and operating performance in a small open economy. A comprehensive sample consists of panel data from 1,821 Czech firms over the period 2006 to 2017. We find that leverage has a negative effect on the operating performance for the entire sample as well as for subsamples structured according to size or sector. We also find evidence that the relationship between leverage and performance in some sectors and segments is weakened during periods of economic downturn, as well as during the recent foreign exchange interventions of the Czech National Bank. Our study, focusing on the banking perspective, contributes to the debate about the impact of differences in leverage across sectors and segments on the capital allocation channels, managed in small open economies predominantly by banks.

Business failure prediction is an important issue in corporate finance. Different prediction models are proposed by financial theory and are often used in practice. Their application is effortless, selecting only few key inputs with the greatest informative power from the large list of possible indicators. Our paper identifies the financial distress predictors for 5 post-communist countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania) based on information collected from the Amadeus database for the period 2011-2013 using CHAID decision trees and neural networks. We propose a short list of indicators, which can offer a synthetic perspective on corporate distress risk, adapted for these countries. The best prediction models are substantially different from country to country: in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania the flow-approach indicators perform better, while in Bulgaria and Croatia - the stock-approach indicators. The results suggest that the extrapolation of such models from one country to another should be made cautiously. One interesting finding is the presence of the ratios per employee as predictors of financial distress.

This study examines the influence of financial distress on top management turnover in the Republic of Serbia over the period January 2009-June 2015. Using a sample of 86 large and medium-sized privately owned companies that adopted a reorganisation plan in bankruptcy, we found out that top management was changed in 33 companies. A logistic regression provides evidence that probability of top management turnover is significantly correlated with the company's size (positive correlation) and the ownership concentration (negative correlation). The influence of the company's financial performance, applied bankruptcy proceedings and debt monitoring of top management turnover was deemed to be statistically insignificant (at 5% and 10% significance level). Obtained results provide the proof that corporate governance mechanisms in distressed Serbian companies are not efficient.

This paper presents the construction of a new indicator (named the JT index) evaluating the economy's financial stability, which is based on a financial scoring model estimated on Czech corporate accounting data. Seven financial indicators capable of explaining business failure at a 1-year prediction horizon are identified. Using the model estimated in this way, an aggregate indicator of the creditworthiness of the Czech corporate sector (the JT index) is then constructed and its evolution over time is shown. This indicator aids the estimation of the risks of this sector going forward and broadens the existing analytical set-up used by the Czech National Bank for its financial stability analyses. The results suggest that the creditworthiness of the Czech corporate sector steadily improved between 2004 and 2006. However, the JT index for 2007 and 2008 deteriorated what could be explained through global market turbulences while the further decrease in 2009 rather by the global recession. The used methodology for the construction of the JT index might be suitable for decision makers when evaluating the economy's financial stability. Although our research is done as a case study on the Czech Republic, its basic idea might be easily applied to other countries as well.

The results of stress tests of the Czech banking sector based on credit risk and credit growth models, applied to the household and corporate sector are presented in the paper. The use of these newly developed models enables the stress tests to be linked to the CNB's official quarterly macroeconomic forecast. In addition, the article updates the stress scenarios, including simple sensitivity analyses of credit risk for individual sectors. Based on the analysis, an answer is sought to the question of whether the observed credit growth to corporate sector and households poses any threat to the stability of the banking sector. The analyses conclude that the banking sector as a whole seems to be resilient to the macroeconomic shocks under consideration.

This paper extends the costly enforcement model of optimal financing to the case of investment projects financed by several lenders when the legal and economic situation in the emerging market economy does not allow for commitment to contracts and for securitization of credit contracts through use of collateral. We consider the asymmetric situation when only one lender is a big strategic investor. All other lenders are small passive investors. We first provide the sufficient and necessary condition for renegotiation proofness. Then we show that the optimal verification is deterministic. We also discuss the conditions under which the optimal contract is a debt contract. Our methodological framework may be used for example for the analysis of credit provision in food supply chains, where often many small non-strategic investors (small farm-level producers) interact with some big strategic investor (the advanced technology supplier) in the explicit or implicit crediting of some parts of food supply chain like the food processing plants or storage facilities.