F40 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: GeneralReturn

The paper analyses some aspects of EU-China trade relations. Correlation analysis was applied to quantify the extent of the influence of the foreign trade with China on the overall foreign trade of the five members of the EU that have the largest foreign trade with China. Given the ongoing trade deficits of the EU with China, we decided to apply the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI) to determine the extent of their trade complementarity. Our initial hypothesis that the economies are highly complementary was rejected. We thus decided to apply the TCI to the EU's trade relations with the US. For the US, the TCI confirmed the existence of high trade complementarity. This implies that the EU can strengthen its negotiating power with China by increasing its trade diversification. These conclusions were also supported by our econometric model. A thorough analysis of EU-China trade relations also revealed the growth potential of the trade in services, which is gaining its momentum given the turbulences in global trade. The paper suggests that the EU needs to strengthen its trade relations with its "natural trade partners" instead of concentrating on China. The paper's focus on trade in services is a major contribution as it has so far been neglected in the economic literature.

An essential part of the EU's growth strategy is support to its own international competitiveness. The reason is that the domestic industry is losing its former positions and is being pushed out of both domestic and international markets. Developments on the international steel market over the last year confirm that the market is likely to see significant changes as a result of protective measures. Most of them will jeopardise the international competitiveness of the European steel industry with negative impacts on its overall economic growth. The aim of this paper is to analyse the influence of energy prices and, based on an international comparison of production conditions, identify the comparative advantages of the EU in this segment. For this purpose, use will be made of the RCA indicator and other research methods. The authors formulate some statements concerning the future development of this sector and the conditions which need to be satisfied to boost its competitiveness.

It is believed that in many countries export activities could enhance countries' capabilities. It is also believed that trade liberalization or common currency could be an export driver. This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization and common currency on EU countries' export growth. The methodology applied in this research is constructed using specifics of the data that arise from a natural experiment. We examined how exogenous events like joining the EU, WTO, EFTA or becoming a member of Eurozone change the environment, in which countries trade. The results using an unbalanced panel data consisting of 28 EU countries for the period 1995-2015 revealed that membership in WTO instantly increases export by 12.5-13.5%, but has no extra effect in longer period; membership in the EU and EFTA has effect on export with a time lag and common currency did not affect export growth at all.

This paper investigates effects of the real exchange rate and its volatility on trade balance and real GDP using a set of eighteen countries, mainly the OECD developed countries. The paper reports econometric procedures and empirical estimates for major currency-owned large economies and non-major currency- owned countries. One task, for which the elasticities of international trade and real GDP are needed, is developing exchange rate assessments. The study finds that real currency depreciation leads to improvement of trade balance in most of the examined developed countries. But the trade balances after real depreciation of currency do not follow J-curve patterns. With regard to the real exchange rate variability, the evidence is mixed. Similarly, effects of the real currency devaluation on real GDP differ across countries. Also, we observe that major currency-owned countries could have different value-and-volume-effects with non-major currency countries.

The main objective of this paper is to find the determinants of the international competitiveness of the manufacturing sectors of the Czech economy, using the database of 13 manufacturing sub-sectors in 1995-2011, with the aid of ECM model. The authors research the question of how much foreign and domestic demand, the level of labour costs, the level of sector innovation intensity, the level of sector openness to foreign markets as well as sectoral labour productivity influence the changes in their trade balance. The results of the analysis conducted show substantial differences in the roles particular variables play in explaining the net exports in individual sectors. The results of the analysis indicate mostly a greater impact of the researched factors on net exports in long rather than short term.

The paper quantifies the role of factors associated with the growth (or decline) of micro and small businesses in European economies. The growth is related to the levels of employment and value added in enterprises, as well as, ten institutional variables. We test the data for consistency of behavioural patterns in various countries and gradually remove outlying observations that can lead to erroneous conclusions when using the classic estimators; this is a quite unique approach in panel data analysis. In the first part of this paper we outline a highly robust method of estimation based on fixed effects and least trimmed squares (LTS). In its second part we apply this method on the panel data of 28 countries in 2002-2008 testing for the hypothesis that micro and small businesses in Europe use different strategies for their growth. We run a series of econometric tests where we regress employment and total net production in micro and small businesses on three economic factors: gross capital returns, labour cost gaps in small relative to large enterprises and GDP per capita. In addition, we test the role of 10 institutional factors in the growth of family businesses.

After joining the EU in 2004, Slovenia and other new members will have to adopt the euro. Their accession to the European Monetary Union will require stabilizing and later fixing their exchange rates and thus restrictive monetary policy. The paper shows that successful stabilization of the exchange rate also requires restrictive fiscal policy. Fiscal policy that is not compatible with the goals of monetary policy would prevent stabilization of the exchange rate.