F37 - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and ApplicationsReturn

This paper brings to the foreground an indicator rather less used in specialized studies - the implicit tax rate of consumption - as an effective tax rate of consumption. In an empirical analysis, we try to analyse the impact of the main determinants on the implicit tax rate of consumption. The analysis is based on the panel technique in order to show the impact of tax harmonization on consumer taxation at EU27, EU15 and NMS12 levels, testing three hypotheses: (1) the implicit tax rate of consumption is directly influenced by the economic growth rate; (2) the effects of harmonization are more pronounced in the new EU member states; (3) during an economic crisis, the budget deficit and public debt determine changes in the implicit tax rate.

Connection between macroeconomic variables and foreign exchange (FX) rates evaluated in the context of out-of-sample forecasting is a well-known problem in economics. We propose a method that utilizes stochastic models based on jump processes (namely the normal inverse Gaussian and Meixner models), combines them with macroeconomic fundamentals, and using a moving (rolling or recursive) regularized estimation procedure produces forecasts of FX rates. These are compared to benchmark models, namely the direct forecast and the Gauss model forecast. Empirical out-of-sample experiments are performed on EUR/USD and USD/DKK currencies.

Exchange rate forecasting is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention nowadays especially because of its difficulty and host of practical applications in globalising world of today. The paper presents an enhanced MIA-GMDH-type network, discusses its design methodology and carries out some numerical experiments in the field of exchange rate forecasting. The method presented in this paper is an enhancement of self-organizing polynomial Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) with several specific improved features - coefficient rounding and thresholding schemes and semi-randomized selection approach to pruning. The experiments carried out include exchange rate prediction and hedging case study where the predictions were used for financial management decision simulation of a virtual company. The results indicate, that the method shows promising potential of self-organizing network methodology. This implies that the proposed modelling approaches can be used as a feasible solution for exchange rate forecasting in financial management.