F15 - Economic IntegrationReturn

The infrastructure investment could strongly influence the economic growth in the Western Balkans countries and contribute to improved regional cooperation and reconciliation and to faster integration into the EU. However, it is essential that public investments in infrastructure are properly financed and managed. To measure the impact of infrastructure indicators on economic growth, panel regression analysis was used for the period 2000-2021, in six Western Balkan countries. The paper addresses the important question of how to intensify investments in infrastructure to achieve sustainable growth in the Western Balkans. The obtained results confirm the earlier findings about the significant impact of energy, ITC, and road infrastructure on economic growth in the Western Balkans.

The paper explores the interconnections between foreign capital flows and the exchange rate regime switching in developing countries. We formulate the exchange rate regime switching as annual time series of binary/ordered variables employing de facto classification of exchange rate arrangements and regress them on the financial account capital flows for a panel of 28 developing countries which experienced change in their exchange rate regime during the period 2000-2016. Employing probit and logit regression, we discover the FDI, portfolio flows and changes in reserve assets to precede and/or coincide with switching. Specifically, accumulation of foreign reserves increases the probability of switching from floating to peg, while their spending coincides with exits from pegged regimes; at the same time, outflows of FDI and portfolio investments tend to accompany exchange rate regime liberalization, although the evidence on that is less consistent.

This study accounts for the nexus between financial development and intra-trade relationships using nine Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countries with the extraction of data from secondary sources spanning between 1990 and 2021. The following are the con- clusions drawn from the study: exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate, which are criti- cal macroeconomic variables, represent unfavourable factors that suppress the intra-trade rela- tionships within the RCEP region. In light of the above, this study recommends that any time the policymakers in RCEP countries desire better intra-trade relationships within RCEP countries, they should implement a unified monetary policy that will stimulate interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate in such a way that the intra-trade relationships will be enhanced among the RCEP countries.

Analysing papers that reveal by decomposing territorial inequalities in the EU that the share of disparities attributed to the NUTS 3 level has increased over the last 20 years, this paper aims to examine to what extent the financial support in 2000-2006 from ERDF and CF, which are the main regional policy tools but mainly are directed to address the issues arising at the NUTS 2 level, contributed to supporting convergence at the NUTS 3 level. Our re-search strategy relies on combining a conditional β-convergence model and a difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator. Estimations are generated for four alternative post-policy periods, two ways to measure policy intervention and for different funds as well as different expenditure categories. Our research results bring to light the question of potential negative outcomes of the EU's existing regional policy since the policy that is focused on the NUTS 2 level is enlarging imbalances within these regions, i.e., among NUTS 3 regions.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the trade integration process of the Visegrad countries from a special point of view, namely by estimating border effects in the countries. The regressional analysis run with two different estimators (OLS vs. PPML) on two different model specifications suggests that between 1995 and 2011 the V4 countries were integrating continuously into the Single Market of the European Union. The results also show that the size of border effect is fairly sensitive to the estimator and particularly to the specification chosen by the researcher. According to the country-level estimation, Hungary seems to be the most integrated country getting the lowest home bias parameters followed by the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, respectively.

This paper aims to identify the impact of a "deep" (economic union) and "shallow" (Common Commercial Policy) integration on 4 Visegrad countries' trade with the EU and non-EU industrialized countries. Trade flows are analysed on the basis of sectors over the period of 1995-2011: the gravity model also utilizes sectoral value-added and sectoral output as proxies for the market size. The impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs) is evaluated for 17 WIOD sectors based on the research methodology developed by Baldwin (2006), Flam and Nordstrom (2003) and Fernandes (2006). Contrary to the mentioned research studies, this paper uses a more advanced econometric technique - the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood method displayed in Silva and Tenreyro (2006). This paper concludes that both "deep" and "shallow" trade arrangements have a more pronounced effect on Visegrad high value-added product exports than on Visegrad low value-added product exports. Common Commercial Policy's trade effects on RTAs, for instance in the case of Mexico and Turkey, are comparable to its trade effects with EU countries. The Common Commercial Policy's effect on RTAs is almost absent in low-value-added product sectors of Visegrad countries. Thus, we conclude that integration with the EU influenced Visegrad countries' trade of higher value-added goods with both the EU and non-EU industrialized countries.

The paper aims to investigate the impact of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) and common commercial policy (CCP) on export performances of Visegrad group of countries (The Visegrad Four, V-4: Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary) preceding and following the EU accession. The V-4, before becoming the EU members, have participated actively in regionalism, signing free trade agreements and customs unions which often also resulted in the extended economic integration. But since the EU accession in 2004, all RTAs of the new members were no longer valid as these countries became the parties of the CCP of the EU. To analyse whether CCP was beneficial on the export performances of the V-4 countries, we estimate the augmented gravity model by employing Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimator for time periods before and after the EU accession, in 1999-2003 and 2004-2013, respectively.

The present paper is focussed on the impact of introducing the common European currency on export performance. Our objective is to explore the impact of introducing the common European currency on the export performance of Slovakia in comparison to the Czech Republic and the old EU member states. Our findings suggest that the export performance and other export-related indicators evolved largely in parallel in both countries. Positive trade effects brought about by the introduction of the euro are rather moderate - up to 5%. The results to some extent do confirm the existence of the so called "Rose effect" - the effect that two countries sharing the same currency trade more than they would otherwise.

Wide range of academic studies and economic practice are showing strong correlation between GDP growth and FDI flows. Moreover, there is a number of cases when FDI inflows were positively impacting economic development. That provides grounds and needs for profound research in the area of investment determinants. The main objective of this paper is to classify FDI determinants in the EU countries. All assuming that there are differences between the two groups - old and new member states. The econometrical approach of gravity modelling was chosen as the most appropriate methodology to analyse panel data set. Panel is depicting FDI flows coming from the external nonEU investors and does not include intra EU investment flows among the member countries (firstly due to the relative insignificance of the intra-EU flows compared to the outer inflow values and secondly due to the need to answer what exactly leads non-European investor to opt for the EU country A and not B). The random effect model has proved diversity in FDI flows determinants. Study outcomes support the need for policymakers' attention in the EU investment policy harmonization, towards market equalization that would improve competiveness of the whole EU region.

We focus on changes in dynamic correlation during the recent financial crisis. The results show different responses to this symmetric shock in V4 countries. We discuss possible specialization if the dynamic correlation increases only at certain of the frequencies. Especially, in case of the Czech Republic where the variability of dynamic correlation in business cycle frequencies increased in relation to the euro area, whereas decreased in relation to Germany. Consequently, we point out to the limitations of a correlation and concordance index as common indicators of business cycle synchronization in time domain.

This study analyses the directions and the degree of financial integration of ASEAN-5 with the PRC, India, the U.S. and Japan. A non-parametric approach has been used to study the crosscountry correlations based on Concordance Index (CI) and Rolling Concordance Index (RCI). Monthly stock market indices between January 1991 and June 2010 for all the countries involved were analysed. The CI results indicate higher financial interdependence of ASEAN-5 with the U.S. and Japan compared to the PRC and India. The stock markets RCIs amongst ASEAN-5 with the emerging and developed economies depict a rising financial integration amongst these nations. Financial integration amongst ASEAN-5 stock markets with the PRC has gradually increased but is still relatively lower compared to the financial integration with India, the U.S. and Japan. Thus, the financial portfolio diversification of ASEAN-5 to the PRC is recommended, especially if the financial crisis originates from the ASEAN region.

There is empirical evidence that the introduction of the euro led to a significant increase of perceived inflation in most countries. Such an increase and persistence in the perceived inflation might then have an impact on inflation expectations and other macroeconomic variables. The authors have used expectational errors to describe the difference between inflation expectations/anticipations and its observed values, subsequently to identify the causality between these variables.

This paper analyzes possible incidence of Turkish EU accession on the emigration from Turkey to the European Union. Panel data estimators are applied on the emigration data from EU-18 into Germany in order to construct possible future scenarios of Turkish migration to the EU. Eventual migration flows from Turkey into the EU are forecasted based on the estimated results. We find that seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator that can be applied in Turkey-EU migration framework. Our results reveal that both the network effect and target country labour market conditions represent the strongest determinants for migration, whilst the effect of per capita income is actually relatively low. In particular, Turkish per capita income does not have nearly any effect on migration, because it enters the model in two variables that work against each other. Furthermore, a very low importance of opening the German labour market for Turkish migrants is found. Estimated coefficients are used to predict migrations to Germany, and through appropriate extrapolations to the whole European Union (EU). Three scenarios of migration are created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Turkey into the Germany during next 25 years is further discussed in detail.

The less developed Slovak economy was converging quickly to the Czech economic level after the World War II, thanks to the massive reallocation of resources. The inflow amounted to 11% of the Slovak GDP, the outflow from the Czech Lands represented 4% of their GDP. The Slovak GDP per capita reached around three quarters of the Czech one in 1992. After the split of Czechoslovakia, the economic policy adjusted to the changed conditions by sinking real wages and depreciation of Slovak koruna, so that the Slovak ULC are the lowest among the Central European countries now. The cost competitiveness, accompanied by an abundant inflow of FDI and economic reforms after the EU accession helped to speed the real convergence. As a result, the Slovak GDP per capita reached 84% of the Czech one in 2007. The balance of costs and benefits of the euro adoption varies due to different conditions in the succession states and to a certain extent justifies the more rapid advancement to the single currency in Slovakia. The common challenge for both economies is to overcome the one-sided orientation on cost/price competitiveness based on low wages.

The article analyses the process of nominal convergence of the new EU member states (NMS) with particular attention paid to some applied and theoretical aspects, which may have impact on the process of the euro adoption. Chapter two addresses selected theoretical and methodological issues connected with the International Comparison Project (ICP). It discusses determinants and influences affecting price level convergence and some issues that have set off new trends, such as the globalization or process of the on-going European integration. This chapter also presents a brief summary of the main trends of price convergence observed by focusing on changes of comparative price levels (CPL) for various disaggregated items of GDP. It also deals with potential issues and problems arising in this context. Chapter three is aimed at an empirical verification of price convergence and at a search for main driving factors using data for the NMS and the old EU member states over 11 years (1995-2006). There are some differences in results depending on the applied econometric method. The most important determinants of price level are GDP and population, the openness and public finance's indicators are not significant. The last section summarises the main findings.

New Regionalism differs markedly from previous development of regional integration. These changes are connected mainly to the necessity of regionalism to react to changing global conditions, new world political order and entrance of new actors into regional integration (i.e. states and superpowers that did not take part in previous waves at all or on a limited scale, i.e. China). This applies also for the transforming countries, at which the regionalism can be observed as late as in its third wave during the 1990s (which applies for the Central and Eastern Europe as well as for the Commonwealth of Independent States' countries) or even later (which applies for China). The aim of this paper is to compare the role of the New Regionalism in most eminent cases in the three parts of the transforming region: in Central and Eastern Europe, in the Commonwealth of Independent States' region and in East Asia. As cases, the Czech Republic, Russia and China were selected, which should enable the study of not only regional aspects, but also selected global impacts of regionalism.

The goal of this paper is to determine one of the consequences of accession of the Czech Republic to the European Monetary Union. The gravity equation is used to estimate the impact of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade. Model's variables include GDPs per capita and populations of each partners, distance between them, exchange rate volatility and several dummy variables, including those, that are signifying membership of given country in the euro area. This model is estimated by general least squares method using panel data for members of the European Union.

This paper analyses the process of nominal and real convergence of the new Member States of the European Union. It also discusses theoretical and methodological issues relating to this process. The importance of nominal and real convergence is underlined in connection with a successful catching-up. The EU-10 economies experienced robust economic growth in recent years, which had a positive impact on the convergence process. Although this favourable development of real convergence (GDP per capita in PPS) is accompanied by a simultaneous price (nominal) convergence (changes in relative prices and a convergence of price levels), the comparative price level is still biased towards lower level in comparison with the per capita income.

As a consequence of the third wave of regionalism, the so called new regionalism, a marked increase in the number of regional groupings can be observed worldwide which makes the preferential relations between states even more complicated and complex. Within these relations those in which a regional grouping is one partner are the most complex. One of such complex relationships, which did not come to being during the third wave of regionalism but was strongly supported by it, is subregionalism - simply said, overlapping of regional integrations. This development can be especially observed in the regions, where a region-wide integration scheme is being formed - such as the European Union in Europe. The aim of this study is to analyze a current state and development of subregionalism within the European Union (EU) and to analyze the effects of this phenomenon in the region. The Czech Republic, as the new member of the EU, is a member of several subregional groupings in Europe. Special regard will be taken to those groupings, where the Czech Republic is an active member. Especially the future development of these groupings will be the main expected outcome of this study. An institutional and political view (analysis of agreements and documents of regional groupings) is the primal approach of this study to the problem of subregionalism and its aim is to identify integration's state, future and relation to the dominant integration. As regionalism is the main theoretical approach of this study, it will examine only the institutionalised integration within the area and will thus omit the regional processes within the EU (the so called euroregions) or the cross-boarder cooperation between particular pairs of member states.

The paper offers a preliminary analysis of possible spontaneous euroization in the Czech economy. After a brief general introduction of the issue of currency substitution it specifically discusses two things. First, the transmission channels of potential spontaneous euroization, through which the process could possibly complicate the implementation of domestic monetary policy. Second, it analyses the degree of euroization. Among the transmission channels, attention is paid to interest rate and exchange rate channels. The circumstances under which the transmission would be sub-optimal are discussed. Besides the impact on the monetary policy transmission, another risk of progressive spontaneous euroization is seen in the shift of the exchange rate risk from bigger to smaller enterprises in the economy. The available data do not allow a precise measurement of the degree of euroization. Nevertheless, both the ratio of euro-denominated over koruna-denominated deposits and the CNB's survey in 2003 suggest that euroization is not an obstacle for the Czech monetary policy at the moment.

The EU-25 will start operating on May 1, 2004. This paper reviews the position of the new Member States (NMS) in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) with respect to future adoption of euro. It argues that further integration in this area is much more about the deepening of the political integrity of the EU than about lowering transaction costs. However, a debate on the political and economic implications resulting from the adoption of euro by the NMS is full of unsolved issues. The central one is to define the possible scenario of the path to the euro. It implies actions on both sides: the NMS need to implement many economic reforms and enhance the political debate on the benefits of the euro adoption. The EU side must proceed with reforms, including the redefinition of the Stability and Growth Pact. The lack of reforms may hamper the political position of the EU.

The paper is concerned with the impact of market research prior to integration with European Union (EU) on the structures of noncompetitive industries in integrated economy. The analysis focuses on monopolistic markets with stochastic demand. Firms are considered in dynamic multiperiod model, where intertemporal links are determined by expenditures on market research in a present period and benefits from this activity (i.e., smaller variance of the prediction error) in the future. We show that the optimal market research strategy is stationary and depends on market size. Consequently, after accession firms operating prior to integration in small markets are expected to have much less information about the total market than their competitors from the EU. This informational asymmetry may affect the structure of the industry in integrated economy. In the extreme case, the firm operating before integration in the small market can be ruled out from the integrated market.

This paper analyses various aspects of industrial restructuring across all ten Central and East European (CEE) candidate countries for EU membership during the last decade and provides also some comparisons with current EU Member States. The impressive structural adjustments that have taken place in CEE industries since the beginning of transition brought the structure of manufacturing industry in the majority of CEE candidate countries fairly close to the European pattern both in terms of production and employment. Technology-driven industries account for a growing share of exports in nearly all candidate countries, while labour-intensive industries have growing export shares only in less advanced candidates such as Bulgaria, Romania and in the Baltic states. The initial export specialization pattern of the more advanced CEE candidate countries has thus nearly completely reversed; a remarkable upgrading towards more sophisticated and less capital-intensive industries has occurred.

This article addresses the issue of macroeconomic policies in the pre-accession period. The key theme is an assessment of the relationship between the real and nominal convergence of the candidate countries towards the EU. Support for real convergence cannot procced on a long-term basis in contradiction to the nominal convergence criteria. Despite a renewal of growth in 1999, a whole range of persisting structural problems, chiefly in the fiscal area, confirm the benefit of voluntary pursuance of the nominal concergence criteria. Fof the central bank, the inflation criterion is particularly relevant. The issue of catchingup with the EU price level is discussed from this point of view. Neither the theoretical models (the law of one price and the Balassa-Samuelson effect) nor the empirical evidence provide arguments for abandoning the efforts for price stability. The most appropriate monetary policy regime linking the interests of monetary policy and government economic policy is inflation targeting.