F13 - Trade Policy; International Trade OrganizationsReturn

We use a gravity model that accounts for multilateral resistance terms (MRT) to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on a country's export. Empirical analysis based on data from 20 countries that traded with one another (creating 380 pairs of importing-exporting countries) over the period 2002-2016 shows that the export of a country is negatively associated with the EPU of its corresponding importing country, but not with the EPU of the exporting country itself. This effect remains qualitatively unchanged regardless whether the exporting country is a developed or a developing economy and whether it focuses on commodities or non-commodities, but the effect is smaller for commodity exporters. Furthermore, the observed negative effect is more pronounced when the unemployment rate in the importing country is high, whilst GDP growth in the importing country does not influence the focal relationship. These findings advance the literature by highlighting the importance of accounting for the differential effects of policy uncertainty in importing and exporting countries and of taking into consideration country and product heterogeneity when analysing the effects of EPU on exports.

The paper analyses some aspects of EU-China trade relations. Correlation analysis was applied to quantify the extent of the influence of the foreign trade with China on the overall foreign trade of the five members of the EU that have the largest foreign trade with China. Given the ongoing trade deficits of the EU with China, we decided to apply the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI) to determine the extent of their trade complementarity. Our initial hypothesis that the economies are highly complementary was rejected. We thus decided to apply the TCI to the EU's trade relations with the US. For the US, the TCI confirmed the existence of high trade complementarity. This implies that the EU can strengthen its negotiating power with China by increasing its trade diversification. These conclusions were also supported by our econometric model. A thorough analysis of EU-China trade relations also revealed the growth potential of the trade in services, which is gaining its momentum given the turbulences in global trade. The paper suggests that the EU needs to strengthen its trade relations with its "natural trade partners" instead of concentrating on China. The paper's focus on trade in services is a major contribution as it has so far been neglected in the economic literature.

It is believed that in many countries export activities could enhance countries' capabilities. It is also believed that trade liberalization or common currency could be an export driver. This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization and common currency on EU countries' export growth. The methodology applied in this research is constructed using specifics of the data that arise from a natural experiment. We examined how exogenous events like joining the EU, WTO, EFTA or becoming a member of Eurozone change the environment, in which countries trade. The results using an unbalanced panel data consisting of 28 EU countries for the period 1995-2015 revealed that membership in WTO instantly increases export by 12.5-13.5%, but has no extra effect in longer period; membership in the EU and EFTA has effect on export with a time lag and common currency did not affect export growth at all.

This paper aims to identify the impact of a "deep" (economic union) and "shallow" (Common Commercial Policy) integration on 4 Visegrad countries' trade with the EU and non-EU industrialized countries. Trade flows are analysed on the basis of sectors over the period of 1995-2011: the gravity model also utilizes sectoral value-added and sectoral output as proxies for the market size. The impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs) is evaluated for 17 WIOD sectors based on the research methodology developed by Baldwin (2006), Flam and Nordstrom (2003) and Fernandes (2006). Contrary to the mentioned research studies, this paper uses a more advanced econometric technique - the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood method displayed in Silva and Tenreyro (2006). This paper concludes that both "deep" and "shallow" trade arrangements have a more pronounced effect on Visegrad high value-added product exports than on Visegrad low value-added product exports. Common Commercial Policy's trade effects on RTAs, for instance in the case of Mexico and Turkey, are comparable to its trade effects with EU countries. The Common Commercial Policy's effect on RTAs is almost absent in low-value-added product sectors of Visegrad countries. Thus, we conclude that integration with the EU influenced Visegrad countries' trade of higher value-added goods with both the EU and non-EU industrialized countries.

Using time series data, the paper empirically analyzes the effects of trade liberalization on exports, imports and trade balance in Pakistan for the period 1981/82 to 2007/08. It concludes that trade liberalization stimulates both exports and imports with the effect being greater on latter than on former thereby worsening the trade balance. Other variables, that is, real exchange rate, domestic and foreign incomes, terms of trade and foreign exchange market distortions affect exports, imports and trade balance in the theoretically expected directions. Inclusion of interaction terms indicate that liberalization stimulates both price and income elasticities of exports, imports and trade balance. These results have important policy implications for degree of trade liberalization in Pakistan.

Conventional wisdom believes that voluntary export restraints (VERs) are beneficial for the exporting country but detrimental to the importing country. Based on the benchmark model of Obstfeld and Rogoff, this paper aims to examine this belief and evaluate the welfare effects of VERs on the world economy. Analytical results find that VERs exert expansion effects on the exporting economy temporarily. The conventional view of VERs effects holds only when there is perfect competition on the goods market or when the exporting country is bigger than the importing country. On the whole, VERs deteriorate the overall welfare of the world economy.

New Regionalism differs markedly from previous development of regional integration. These changes are connected mainly to the necessity of regionalism to react to changing global conditions, new world political order and entrance of new actors into regional integration (i.e. states and superpowers that did not take part in previous waves at all or on a limited scale, i.e. China). This applies also for the transforming countries, at which the regionalism can be observed as late as in its third wave during the 1990s (which applies for the Central and Eastern Europe as well as for the Commonwealth of Independent States' countries) or even later (which applies for China). The aim of this paper is to compare the role of the New Regionalism in most eminent cases in the three parts of the transforming region: in Central and Eastern Europe, in the Commonwealth of Independent States' region and in East Asia. As cases, the Czech Republic, Russia and China were selected, which should enable the study of not only regional aspects, but also selected global impacts of regionalism.

The goal of this paper is to determine one of the consequences of accession of the Czech Republic to the European Monetary Union. The gravity equation is used to estimate the impact of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade. Model's variables include GDPs per capita and populations of each partners, distance between them, exchange rate volatility and several dummy variables, including those, that are signifying membership of given country in the euro area. This model is estimated by general least squares method using panel data for members of the European Union.

As a consequence of the third wave of regionalism, the so called new regionalism, a marked increase in the number of regional groupings can be observed worldwide which makes the preferential relations between states even more complicated and complex. Within these relations those in which a regional grouping is one partner are the most complex. One of such complex relationships, which did not come to being during the third wave of regionalism but was strongly supported by it, is subregionalism - simply said, overlapping of regional integrations. This development can be especially observed in the regions, where a region-wide integration scheme is being formed - such as the European Union in Europe. The aim of this study is to analyze a current state and development of subregionalism within the European Union (EU) and to analyze the effects of this phenomenon in the region. The Czech Republic, as the new member of the EU, is a member of several subregional groupings in Europe. Special regard will be taken to those groupings, where the Czech Republic is an active member. Especially the future development of these groupings will be the main expected outcome of this study. An institutional and political view (analysis of agreements and documents of regional groupings) is the primal approach of this study to the problem of subregionalism and its aim is to identify integration's state, future and relation to the dominant integration. As regionalism is the main theoretical approach of this study, it will examine only the institutionalised integration within the area and will thus omit the regional processes within the EU (the so called euroregions) or the cross-boarder cooperation between particular pairs of member states.

This paper analyses the trade flows and tariff rates of environmental goods in the Czech Republic in the period 1993 - 2002. The analysis is based on environmental goods' categories according to "OECD list of environmental goods". The export and import of environmental goods is investigated also from the foreign trade territorial structure point of view. The five indicators have been used to describe the achieved level of trade liberalization in environmental goods in the Czech Republic.