E66 - General Outlook and ConditionsReturn

This paper evaluates the accuracy of real GDP growth forecasts published in the period 1995-2013 by two Czech institutions: the Ministry of Finance (MF) and the Czech National Bank (CNB). A two-stepped approach is adopted: first a battery of forecasting errors (MAE, RMSE, MASE) is calculated, complementary to evaluation papers already available. Then statistical analysis is carried out by comparing both MF and CNB forecasts with OECD, European Commission and consensus benchmarks (Kruskal-Wallis test), assessing the presence of systemic bias (Wilcoxon test) and determining their incremental improvement (Page trend test). The results show that although some error patterns might suggest performance deficiencies (i.e. during the recession periods), the accuracy of forecasts prepared by both the MF and CNB does not differ significantly from the benchmark forecasts; MF and CNB predictions do not contain systemic bias and their accuracy improves as the horizon shortens. The paper also highlights several methodological shortcomings in the internal evaluations conducted by both institutions, indicating a potential for further improvement.