E41 - Demand for MoneyReturn

This paper examines the theoretical concept of equilibrium in the money market that is empirically verified for the economy of the Czech Republic. The subject of the analysis is the relationship defining equilibrium in the domestic money market, i.e. when money demand corresponds to the money supply in the economy. The main objective is to determine whether such a long-term equilibrium relationship exists by verifying this assumption on real data for the Czech economy. The Johansen cointegration approach is applied for modelling the money demand function including four domestic macroeconomic indicators: money supply, price level, gross domestic product, and interest rate. The results suggest that the level of real money supply fluctuated around the estimated long-run equilibrium value in the analysed period 2000-2013.

The demand for real M2 in the Czech Republic is positively influenced by real output and negatively associated with the deposit rate, the koruna/euro exchange rate, and the euro interest rate. The coefficient of real output for the demand for real M1 is insignificant. Hence, depreciation of the koruna or a higher euro interest rate would help raise Czech real output. The Box-Cox transformation test shows that the log-linear form for real M1 and M2 demand cannot be rejected at the 5% level while the linear form for real M1 and M2 demand can be rejected at the 5% level. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests show that parameters in the demand for both real M1 and M2 demand are stable. In comparison, real M2 is a better monetary aggregate.

The demand for money represents one of the most important components of the transmission mechanism. Its analysis plays an important role in the decision-making process of central banks dealing with monetary policies. This paper follows a post-Keynesian approach to the analysis of the demand for money. The econometric analysis is based on the Arestis's model, adjusted for the conditions of the Czech Republic. The cointegration analysis on the basis of both the VAR and ADL models is applied. The premise is confirmed that the demand for money in the Czech Republic from 1994 - 2000 had developed in the long-run mostly under the influence of GDP and interest rate development. This conclusion is valid for balances in both real and nominal money.