E27 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and ApplicationsReturn

One of the major limitations of the supply-driven input-output (I-O) Ghosh model concerns its linear production function. Using the I-O table, this paper replaces the linear production function with the Cobb-Douglas (CD) production function within the supply-driven model. The two models are compared both theoretically and empirically. Nonlinear production function, relative substitutability of primary factors, and variability of the proportion of intermediate inputs over product levels are the characteristics of the proposed model. The consideration of sectors' Solow residual as Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of sectors is yet another characteristics of the proposed model. The model is also plausible in value added and supply shock computations.

This research is related to the assessment of alternative unemployment rate predictions for the Romanian economy, the forecasts being provided by three anonymous forecasters: F1, F2 and F3. F3 provided the most accurate forecasts for the horizon 2001-2014, while F2 predictions are the less accurate according to U1 Theil's statistic and according to a new method that has not been used before in literature in this context. The multi-criteria ranking was applied to make a hierarchy of the forecasters regarding the accuracy and five important accuracy measures were taken into account at the same time: mean errors, mean squared error, root mean squared error, U1 and U2 statistics of Theil. The combined forecasts of forecasters' predictions are the best strategy to improve the forecasts accuracy. The filtered and smoothed original predictions based on Hodrick-Prescott filter, respectively Holt-Winters technique, are a good strategy of improving the accuracy only for F2 expectations. The assessment and improvement of forecasts accuracy have an important contribution in growing the quality of decision-making process.