E23 - Macroeconomics: ProductionReturn

The balanced growth theory and the neoclassical growth model predict that certain macroeconomic variables such as output, consumption, and investment grow at a constant rate. Analytically, it indicates that the consumption-output ratio and the investment-output ratio (termed "great ratios") must be stationary. Moreover, consumption and investment must be cointegrated with output. This paper examines these implications with respect to developed (G7) and emerging (E7) countries using data for the period 1970-2019. The validity of the balanced growth hypothesis (BGH) is tested by using unit root tests (univariate analysis) and cointegration techniques (multivariate analysis) that permits endogenously determined structural breaks. The findings of our univariate analysis suggest limited evidence of the BGH in developed and developing countries. The multivariate analysis exhibits more supportive evidence of the BGH in five developed countries and limited evidence for two developing countries. The study also employs the Westerlund (2006) panel cointegration test with structural breaks to examine the validity of the BGH. Empirical findings validate the BGH for the G7 countries, while it is not validated for E7 countries. In sum, the study promulgates the use of structural breaks in a multivariate setup in testing the BGH to find robust evidence.

In this paper, we apply the aggregate production function to approximate the path of potential output and decompose it into its determinants. Based on the decomposition we evaluate the supply side performance from a macroeconomic perspective. We use a time-varying NAIRU to derive the amount of potential labour and a newly developed measure of capital services to account for the productive impact of capital. In addition, trend total factor productivity is estimated. During 1995-2000, the growth in potential output was constrained by a gradual increase in the NAIRU, a temporary drop in investment activity and, most importantly, by only a modest rise in total factor productivity. For the period 2001-2005, we observe substantial improvements in the supply-side performance, except for the functioning of the labour market.

This paper deals with the Czech economy supply side performance from the macroeconomic point of view. In order to evaluate the supply side behaviour we calculate the potential output dynamic path and contribution of its particular determinants using the production function method. The results show that the potential output growth was rather slow around 2 per cent. This implies that e. g. even 3 per cent growth can cause macroeconomic imbalances. Increase of the non-accelerating-inflation-rate of unemployment (NAIRU), weak growth of the capital stock and weak growth of total factor productivity appear to be the reasons for the constrained ability of the Czech economy to grow steadily and converge to EU level.

This article addresses the issue of macroeconomic policies in the pre-accession period. The key theme is an assessment of the relationship between the real and nominal convergence of the candidate countries towards the EU. Support for real convergence cannot procced on a long-term basis in contradiction to the nominal convergence criteria. Despite a renewal of growth in 1999, a whole range of persisting structural problems, chiefly in the fiscal area, confirm the benefit of voluntary pursuance of the nominal concergence criteria. Fof the central bank, the inflation criterion is particularly relevant. The issue of catchingup with the EU price level is discussed from this point of view. Neither the theoretical models (the law of one price and the Balassa-Samuelson effect) nor the empirical evidence provide arguments for abandoning the efforts for price stability. The most appropriate monetary policy regime linking the interests of monetary policy and government economic policy is inflation targeting.