D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and UncertaintyReturn

We use a gravity model that accounts for multilateral resistance terms (MRT) to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on a country's export. Empirical analysis based on data from 20 countries that traded with one another (creating 380 pairs of importing-exporting countries) over the period 2002-2016 shows that the export of a country is negatively associated with the EPU of its corresponding importing country, but not with the EPU of the exporting country itself. This effect remains qualitatively unchanged regardless whether the exporting country is a developed or a developing economy and whether it focuses on commodities or non-commodities, but the effect is smaller for commodity exporters. Furthermore, the observed negative effect is more pronounced when the unemployment rate in the importing country is high, whilst GDP growth in the importing country does not influence the focal relationship. These findings advance the literature by highlighting the importance of accounting for the differential effects of policy uncertainty in importing and exporting countries and of taking into consideration country and product heterogeneity when analysing the effects of EPU on exports.

Economic theories of the last decades provide analytical framework within which we can explain institutional conditions for corrupt action. Specialists making economic policy recommendations to resolve this problem use several approaches, the most dominant of which are rent seeking and agency theories. In this paper, I explain economic policy recommendations that stem out of both approaches. I argue that scholars suggesting these recommendations within these two frameworks do not understand each other because of different assumptions they make. More specifically, I show that two sets of policy recommendations presented here are based on the particular system of property rights assumed within each theory. In this example, I show why corruption is a problem of the state rather than the market.

A heterogeneous agents model with the Worst Out Algorithm (WOA) was considered for obtaining more realistic market conditions. The WOA replaces periodically the trading strategies that have the lowest performance level of all strategies presented on the market by the new ones. New strategies that enter on the market have the same stochastic structure as an initial set of strategies. This paper shows, by wavelets applications, strata influences of the trading strategies with the WOA.