D58 - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium ModelsReturn

This article identifies structural changes in the Czech economy in the period from 1996 to 2012 using a DSGE model estimated using Bayesian methods. A structural change is understood as a statistically significant change in model parameter(s). Prior to the first quarter of 1999, there was a structural change that can be primarily attributed to shocks impacting only the domestic economy, and to the domestic monetary authority's increased preferences towards inflation and exchange rate growth. The elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported consumption goods also increased sharply in this period. As far as the recent economic recession is concerned, it was caused by a much more persistent worldwide technology shock. Habit formation dropped abruptly during the crisis as households tended not to smooth their consumption much anymore. Recursive impulse response analysis carried out on the model suggests that the propagation mechanisms in the model economy changed, implying that the identified structural changes were accompanied by a change in behaviour of the model economy.

The paper investigates how results obtained with standard CGE models can be improved by incorporating the effects of R&D activity in a recursively-dynamic CGE model built for the economy of the Czech Republic. The main objective of the paper is to quantify the impact of R&D activity on the long-term economic growth of the Czech Republic within the recursively dynamic CGE framework. The effect of R&D investment is modelled via the accumulation of knowledge that is treated as a specific production factor. The main findings show that knowledge accumulation can contribute to higher economic growth, but the impact of the dynamisation in the CGE model is very low. However, in terms of structural changes in the economy, the omission of knowledge capitalization might underestimate the tertiary sector in the longer run. The paper also investigates the efficiency of R&D investment and concludes that in the longer run, investment in capital goods is more efficient in achieving higher economic growth. In the concluding chapter, related factors that may improve the impact of knowledge in the CGE model are discussed.