C68 - Computable General Equilibrium ModelsReturn

This study questions the importance of accounting for sectoral heterogeneity in a DSGE model for the Czech Republic. The benchmark DSGE model originally developed by the Czech Ministry of Finance benefits from features such as wage and price stickiness, habit formation in the utility function and capital adjustment costs. The Input-Output DSGE model extended hereby proves to provide more precise estimates for the evolution of aggregate variables and to supply a more detailed structure of the economy. The set of variables the dynamics of which significantly improve consists of inflation rate and nominal interest rate. The disaggregated model also fits data well in terms of sectoral production functions. Finally, the absence of industrial heterogeneity in the model is shown to lead to an underestimation of the impact of the technology shock on the Czech gross domestic product.

The Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland are set to join the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in the near future. This paper offers a framework for the quantitative evaluation of the economic costs of joining the EMU. Using an open economy dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices, we investigate the economic implications of the loss of monetary policy flexibility associated with EMU for each of these economies. The main benefit of this general equilibrium approach is that we can directly evaluate the effects of monetary policy in terms of welfare. Our findings suggest that the Czech Republic and Poland may experience sizable welfare costs as a result of joining the EMU. Results for Hungary are less striking as welfare costs in this country seem to be negligible in the benchmark economy. Nevertheless, costs of joining the EMU are higher if government shocks are important and when the trade share with the EMU is small.

The paper investigates how results obtained with standard CGE models can be improved by incorporating the effects of R&D activity in a recursively-dynamic CGE model built for the economy of the Czech Republic. The main objective of the paper is to quantify the impact of R&D activity on the long-term economic growth of the Czech Republic within the recursively dynamic CGE framework. The effect of R&D investment is modelled via the accumulation of knowledge that is treated as a specific production factor. The main findings show that knowledge accumulation can contribute to higher economic growth, but the impact of the dynamisation in the CGE model is very low. However, in terms of structural changes in the economy, the omission of knowledge capitalization might underestimate the tertiary sector in the longer run. The paper also investigates the efficiency of R&D investment and concludes that in the longer run, investment in capital goods is more efficient in achieving higher economic growth. In the concluding chapter, related factors that may improve the impact of knowledge in the CGE model are discussed.