C58 - Financial EconometricsReturn

We Examine the Comovement between China's Commodity Futures and World Crude Oil Prices Based on Their Daily Return Series. Using a Dynamic Time-Varying Approach, We Combine the Generalized Autoregressive Score (Gas) Model with the Copula Approach, Allowing for Asymmetry and Tail Dependence. Our Results Demonstrate a Significant Nonlinear Causal Impact of World Crude Oil Prices on Each of China's Commodities. The Comovement between China's Commodity Futures and Crude Oil Prices Is Positive, with Varying Degrees of Significance across Different Commodity Types. Notably, Non-Ferrous Metal and Chemical Commodity Futures Are More Vulnerable to Rising Crude Oil Prices. From a Dynamic Perspective, We Observe Continued Volatility in the Comovement between China's Commodity Futures and World Crude Oil Prices in Recent Years. Moreover, the Time-Varying Dependence between the Three Non-Ferrous Metals and Crude Oil Prices Is Higher than That of Other Commodities. These Findings Hold Significant Implications for Global Investors, Risk Managers and Policymakers.

This paper employs a dynamic herding approach that takes herding under different market regimes into account. We use daily data on US stock returns for the S&P 500 ranging from 2006 to 2017. The results of the linear model yield no evidence of herding. However, the findings of switching regression of Bai and Perron (1998) demonstrate evidence of herding during crisis regimes of S&P 500. The alternative approach of Markov switching also supports these findings.

Global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) is one of important phenomena in the global economy; it can impact on the overall economic performance and stock market per-formance, regardless of the status of the world economy. Thus, this paper empirically investigates the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on the Malaysian stock market over the period from 10:2003 to 2017:03. Using the GARCH model, the study demonstrates that global policy uncertainty affects the Malaysian stock market negatively. Similarly, the SVAR model also shows results consistent with the GARCH estimation. Nevertheless, the Markov switching estimation uncovers that global policy uncertainty has negative impacts on stock market performance in both low and high volatile market states. The impact is, however, greater during the high volatile state. Hence, the relationship between global economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns tends to be asymmetric. The overall empirical results infer that global economic policy uncertainty has some implications for asset pricing.

Profitability of a trading system based on the momentum-like effects of asset price jumps was tested on four currency markets (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY) and three futures markets (Light Crude Oil, E-Mini S&P 500 and VIX), on 7 frequencies (1-minute to 1-day), over a period of more than 20 years. The proposed trading system entered long and short trades in the direction of asset price jumps and held the positions for a fixed horizon, optimized on the in-sample period. The system achieved statistically significant out-sample profits for the USD/CHF, EUR/USD and GBP/USD exchange rates, especially on the 15-minute, 30-minute and 1-hour frequencies, with expected returns of up to 20-30% p.a., including transaction costs. On the 1-day frequency, on the USD/JPY and on the three analysed futures markets, only insignificant profits or losses were achieved. On the 1-minute frequency, the system ended with a loss for all of the assets.

Exposure curves play significant role in modelling of property per risk excess of loss non-proportional reinsurance contracts, especially in the situations when not enough historical data is available for applying experience-based methods or if the underlying exposure changed significantly. The paper deals only with the first loss scale (FLS) approach which is frequently used in Europe. An alternative approach is based on ISO´s PSOLD methodology which is typical for the U.S. The first research into FLS approach was done by Ruth E. Salzmann in 1963 and some further curves have been developed since that time, however, their availability is limited. According to the authors´ knowledge only limited number of articles were published on this topic and no comprehensive publication which would describe the methodology to a larger extent exists. The paper provides a comprehensive description of the FLS exposure rating methodology, aims to summarise both historical and latest developments in this area and also includes various authors´ own practical considerations. The theory is illustrated on numerical examples.

This paper examines contagion in the foreign exchange markets of three Central European countries and the euro area. Contagion is viewed as the occurrence of extreme events taking place in different countries simultaneously and is assessed with a measure of asymptotic tail dependence among the studied distributions. Currency crisis contagion is one strand of this research. However, the main aim of the paper is to examine the potential of bubble contagion. To this end the representative exchange rates are linked to their fundamentals using a cointegration approach. Given the long-time range required by cointegration testing, the variables are first tested for unit roots with structural breaks, whose existence is supported by these tests. In the sequel, the extreme values of the differences between actual daily exchange rates and their monthly equilibrium values determine the episodes associated with large departures from equilibrium. Using tools from Extreme Value Theory, we analyse the transmission of both standard crisis and bubble formation events in the examined currency markets. The results reveal a significant potential for contagion in the currency markets of Central Europe.

The paper presents various GLM models using individual rating factors to calculate the solvency capital requirements for non-life underwriting risk in insurance. First, we consider the potential heterogeneity of claim frequency and the occurrence of large claims in the models. Second, we analyse how the distribution of frequency and severity varies depending on the modelling approach and examine how they are projected into SCR estimates according to the Solvency II Directive. In addition, we show that neglecting of large claims is as consequential as neglecting the heterogeneity of claim frequency. The claim frequency and severity are managed using generalized linear models, that is, negative-binomial and gamma regression. However, the different individual probabilities of large claims are represented by the binomial model and the large claim severity is managed using generalized Pareto distribution. The results are obtained and compared using the simulation of frequency-severity of an actual insurance portfolio.

This paper examines if the volatility exhibits a symmetric or an asymmetric response to past shocks, particularly the relevance of structural breaks for Central European (hereinafter referred to as "CEE") stock markets. In addition, it is of great interest to see if the CEE emerging markets are correlated with other emerging ones, as well as to analyse the correlation with the developed markets, for optimizing investment portfolios. Using a CEE group approach (regional index) and daily data from 2002 to 2015, the results suggest that markets react differently to similar negative and positive returns, except for the rapid growth period, when the greed sentiment dominates the markets. Furthermore, the structural break dates affect volatility, the highest asymmetric coefficient being recorded for the pre-crisis period. For the bivariate approach, the emerging markets and developed markets indexes provided by the Morgan Stanley Capital International (hereinafter referred to as "MSCI") have been considered and the results suggest that CEE stock markets are correlated with emerging stock markets rather than developed ones. For both pairs, the correlation is consistently higher for the break dates characterized by an increase in volatility, which is in line with the literature that claims that the co-movements increase when international factors dominate the national ones, and influence stock markets.

This paper investigates the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between stock returns and exchange rate in four East European emerging markets. Due to persistent long memory and the presence of the asymmetric effect in all asset markets we applied DCC-FIAPARCH model. The estimated negative DCC parameters in all scrutinized countries confirmed that portfolio-balanced theory has predominance in the short run in all selected economies. DCC parameters revealed significant time-varying behaviour, especially during the major crisis periods. By embedding dummy variables in the variance equations, we came to the conclusion that global shocks affect the volatility of DCCs. Particularly, it happened during the Global Financial Crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, but the effects were not linearly equal in all countries. Complementary rolling analysis unveils how conditional volatilities of analysed assets influence DCC. The results suggested that exchange rate conditional volatility has higher influence on DCC than stock conditional volatility.

This paper investigates whether UIRP principle holds and what is predominant driving force, which influences exchange rate movement - economic fundamentals or short-term speculative behaviour. Analysis covers seven East European transition countries and empirical data comprise weekly time series ranging from first week in January 2003 to last week in December 2013. The research method is Component-GARCH in Mean Model, which decomposes temporary and permanent element of volatility. The mean and variance equations have been adjusted for the structural breaks' presence in order to improve estimated parameters. The results suggested that UIRP principle does not hold in any country. After structural breaks inclusion, we have found that the permanent effect is significant in determination of exchange rate dynamics in five countries, but it does not apply for the transition effect. However, further outliers' purification revealed that only in Serbia short-term transition component plays an important role.

Current paper has focused on the capital structure management theories. The theoretical part of the study firstly highlights the differences between trade-off theories and pecking order theories. In the empirical part there are then proved some significant relationships between financial indicators (debt/equity ratio and return on equity) of homogenous data sample from the Czech branch of building area. The aim of the study is to prove the differences between the capital structure development that are based on the type of the Czech companies' ownership in the selected NACE industrial branch and to point out some other particularities. The contribution of the paper is a comparison of the theory as well as practice of this issue in the Czech Republic. For pooled sample there are used selected financial indicators of 57 building companies, all with turnover of more than CZK 1.5 billion. The choice of this criterion was a result of a change in efficiency in Czech economy observed in the selected period. We can assume that this factor will have low influence on the selection of financial resources of large corporations. We may even say that for large companies the availability of financial resources remain unchanged. We have obtained annual data from 2004 to 2011. Due to such short estimation period, but the width of pooled sample on the other hand, it is used generalized method of moments (GMM) panel regression. There are also arguments of motivation to analyse business branch of building specifically. Moreover, an analysis is split according to ownership of companies into two categories, for the Czech and foreign owners. Based on the recent literature there has been made and tested three hypotheses. Results of the article have clearly proved the separation of managers from owner's positions. On the top of that, domestic companies are not pushed to distribute the realized profit so much as foreign owners that prefer the return of their means invested into business. There is also a suggestion of future interests in research focused on other Czech business branches, too.

Assuming a non-satiable risk-averse investor, the standard approach to portfolio selection suggests discarding of all inefficient investment in terms of mean return and its standard deviation ratio within its first step. However, in literature we can find many alternative dispersion and risk measures that can help us to identify the most suitable investment opportunity. In this work two new dispersion measures, fulfilling the condition that ""more is better than less"" are proposed. Moreover, their distinct characteristics are analysed and empirically compared. In particular, starting from the definition of dispersion measures, we discuss the property of consistency with respect to additive shifts and we examine two dispersion measures that satisfy this property. Finally, we empirically compare the proposed dispersion measures with the standard deviation and the conditional value at risk on the US stock market. Moreover, within the empirical example the so called ""alarm"" is incorporated in order to predict potential fails of the market.