C50 - Econometric Modeling: GeneralReturn

Equity release contracts allow property owners to receive a financial benefit in exchange for surrendering their real estate to a company. The benefits depend on the life expectancy of owners, the real value of properties, and the rate of interest. These parameters are not the same throughout the years. The aim of the paper is to analyse varying payments of equity release contracts which have already been offered to customers for several years in Poland. A recalculation procedure year by year is proposed applying the actuarial and financial methods. This paper estimates the potential advantages of reverse annuity and reverse mortgage contracts in a changing economic environment. The calculations were made based on actual Polish market data, including the Svensson model of spot interest rate. It is shown that there is considerable scope for increasing retirement income; however, the exact amounts may be unknown. The advantages for customers resulting from changes in parameters and valorization are shown, as well as the risk associated with equity release.

In this study, using the recent recursive unit root tests proposed by Phillips et al. (2015), we identify and date-stamp periods where food and energy prices deviate explosively relative to other prices in the economy and analyse the implications in terms of anchoring inflation expectations. During the period from January 2003 to July 2018, we have detected the existence of such periods for 17 out of 27 EU countries. Identifying these explosive periods is particularly important since evidence reveals that consumers change, i.e., revise their inflation expectations during periods when headline consumer prices deviate explosively from core prices. Furthermore, it is realized that consumers take macroeconomic variables into account as well as past inflation when forming inflation expectations in both normal and explosive periods. On the other hand, there are particular differences among groups of countries while adjusting their inflation expectations during explosive phases. A common feature for all the countries is that during explosive periods, consumers change and update their inflation expectations on the basis of information coming from the interest rate. More specifically, consumers in all the countries perceive a higher current interest rate as an indication of higher future inflation, leading to higher inflation expectations in explosive periods. A particularly important policy implication of these findings is that periods of explosive deviations in headline prices from core prices should be monitored closely while designing policies to anchor inflation expectations.

This study attempted to evaluate the differences between bachelor and master requirements in the field of tourism regarding sixteen communication as well as sixteen managerial competencies explored in a wide range of employers in the Czech Republic. The questionnaire survey data were processed using a multivariate approach of the Fisher linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and its partial least squares algorithm (plsLDA) considering two-set cases and the functional relation of both methods depending on a parameter. It was revealed that although the differences between bachelor and master requirements in communication competencies are more pronounced considering the results of the classical approach to discriminant analysis, this is not the case in its partial least squares variant. The differences are to a great extent variable, filling the whole set of individual competencies. However, the most significant competencies demanded from master graduates are: providing a complex view - summary, providing feedback, time management, leadership and planning, considering both boundaries of eigenvalues with corresponding eigenvectors analytical (resp. smooth) path. The practical implication of the results can serve as a target for modern educational systems preparing students for success in the current competitive environment.

Efficiency and productivity analysis is widely used in health services research. In the paper, two major modelling approaches to efficiency and productivity analysis in health services are evaluated. The first group comprises non-parametric methods based on the theory of mathematical programming, such as data envelopment analysis. The second group originates from econometric analysis of production function. Although the application of quantitative economic analysis in health services is not without problems, the methods discussed are able to help us with identifying best and worst practices within the health systems.