C5 - Econometric ModelingReturn

Numerous studies have explored the possible causes of global carbon emissions and climate change; however, the impact of export diversification and concentration on these emissions is a less examined topic in literature. This study investigates the effects of export diversification and concentration on carbon emissions in Türkiye from 1995 to 2018, utilizing the nonlinear ARDL method. The findings indicate that export diversification reduces carbon emissions after accounting for the effects of other control variables, such as renewable energy, levels of inequality, and government size. In this model, an increase in renewable energy, inequality, and government size leads to higher carbon emissions and worsens environmental quality, although the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is supported. Additionally, this study reveals that positive shocks in export concentration reduce carbon emissions, while negative shocks increase emissions. This hypothesis remains valid for the specified period in Türkiye, but the control variables display behavior similar to export diversification. The results suggest that mitigating climate change and improving environmental quality in Türkiye relies on policies that support export diversification and concentration.

Modeling policy effects in the context of high-dimensional data requires a balanced consideration of omitted interaction bias and overfitting problems. This paper investigates the role of machine learning algorithms in stabilizing estimates and demonstrates the possible regularization bias caused by common LASSO methods. To overcome the three problems simultaneously, post-double selection is used to screen for the interaction terms that need to be included in the model, and the variance estimates are expanded to measure the uncertainty of the interaction effects and marginal effects. Monte Carlo simulations analyze the main factors affecting conditional and non-linear relationships: covariance and sample size. The results of empirical examples show that different model settings and estimation methods can lead to observable differences in the conclusion of treatment effect heterogeneity, and in general, post-double selection has better performance than other estimation methods.

This paper analyses the relation between Czech exports in goods and services and German GDP. In order to contribute to the current state of knowledge the analysis goes more into detail in terms of disaggregating the German GDP. Do Czech exports depend more on German domestic absorption, or is it, rather, German exports which determine Czech exports? Does the Czech Republic produce goods for German consumers or is it an ""outsourced"" supplier to German export channels, instead? Co-integration analysis and the analysis of the commodity structure of Czech exports to Germany are employed to address these questions. The indings of this research indicate that the relationship between Czech exports and German GDP is a very complex one. The Czech economy can be considered a part of German distribution channels, which serves as its specialized outsourced production capacity.

The paper attempts to analyse the effects of the cumulated public sector debt (in this relation essentially government debt and family debt), primarily on the development of the population's standard of living. In this regard, the paper quantifies the impact of debt on the real standard of living - whether we define it merely as the ability to consume, or broadly as the sum of multiple criteria including, for instance, the quality of the environment. This quantification uses data from the economy of the Czech Republic; however, this method can be in principle used for other national economies, but must be adjusted to reflect the specific features of their development. Using the analysis of time series, the paper investigates some other aspects of the debt situation of families in the Czech Republic, especially the development of the relationship between families' savings and debt, and finds that debt prevails over savings in the long run. Several conclusions for the future can be derived from these results. These conclusions can be summarized in a statement that future political representations will have to continuously bridge the gap between the need to reduce the standard of living of large groups of the population on the one hand, and the need to make sure that the necessary reforms are politically viable on the other hand.

Specific features of quarterly econometric model for Montenegro are dealing with the euroization of the economy, de facto separation of Montenegrin economy from Serbian economy. The model is specified with final demand as driving force of the economic growth, but, in addition, with some specific detail of supply side economics regarding negative role of government expenditures and taxation on some forms of activity. Key features of the model are: inclusion of relevant real and financial sectors of the economy, estimation of labour and capital market, division of labour market on tradable and non-tradable part, creation of activity variable in addition to industrial production and identifying final demand as driving force of the economy. Special features are connected with peculiarities of Montenegrin economy, which include lack of domestic currency and fiscal restraint following Maastricht criteria. Model enables the analysis of measures of monetary, fiscal and some employment policy. The ultimate goal of building model was to describe functioning of Montenegrin economy which needs to be better understood by authorities (government, central bank). Next, model is intended to help identifying and quantifying appropriate measures of economic policy; their quantification should be consistent with the major economic goals authorities declared in their yearly economic policy resolutions.