C33 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal ModelsReturn

This study estimates the impact of public debt on public investment in Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies. We implement Cross-sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) model, which effectively handles cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, while dealing with short- and long-run coefficients simultaneously. The results indicate the existence of both short- and long-term crowding out effects of public debt on public investment in the CEE region. These findings have significant fiscal policy repercussions, particularly in context marked by constrained financial resources and substantial debt loads, as has been the case in a number of CEE economies.

This paper examines the validity of the risk-return trade-off for a sample of Czech banks over the period 2002-2022 by analysing the relationship between the bank risk and risk-adjusted returns. I find evidence of a significant negative association between the regulatory risk measure and risk-adjusted returns, indicating that the risk-return trade-off does not hold. Specifically, a 100 bps increase in the risk is associated with about a 7 bps decrease in the return on risk-adjusted assets (RORWA) and an 11 bps decrease in the risk-adjusted net interest margin (rNIM) in the short run. The long-run effect is about double for RORWA and almost triple for rNIM. I also find evidence that during the period of low interest rates, the effect for RORWA was about a half smaller, albeit still negative. On the contrary, when non-regulatory measures of risk or risk-adjusted profitability are used, the risk-return trade-off seems to hold.

The balanced growth theory and the neoclassical growth model predict that certain macroeconomic variables such as output, consumption, and investment grow at a constant rate. Analytically, it indicates that the consumption-output ratio and the investment-output ratio (termed "great ratios") must be stationary. Moreover, consumption and investment must be cointegrated with output. This paper examines these implications with respect to developed (G7) and emerging (E7) countries using data for the period 1970-2019. The validity of the balanced growth hypothesis (BGH) is tested by using unit root tests (univariate analysis) and cointegration techniques (multivariate analysis) that permits endogenously determined structural breaks. The findings of our univariate analysis suggest limited evidence of the BGH in developed and developing countries. The multivariate analysis exhibits more supportive evidence of the BGH in five developed countries and limited evidence for two developing countries. The study also employs the Westerlund (2006) panel cointegration test with structural breaks to examine the validity of the BGH. Empirical findings validate the BGH for the G7 countries, while it is not validated for E7 countries. In sum, the study promulgates the use of structural breaks in a multivariate setup in testing the BGH to find robust evidence.

There is no consensus on the key drivers of financial inclusion due to variation in the socioeconomic features of countries, use of indicators and research methods. The main objective of this study is, therefore, to empirically examine the key drivers of financial inclusion across 26 selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies for the period between 2000 and 2019, using a system generalized method of moments (GMM). A principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to construct a composite index of financial inclusion to address the multi-dimensional nature of the variable. The findings of the study indicate that both the macroeconomic and microeconomic factors influence the level of financial inclusion of the SSA countries. Specifically, the lag effect, economic growth, financial stability, inflation, financial deepening, liquidity, profitability, and bank efficiency are important drivers of financial inclusion in the SSA region. It is therefore important for policy makers and regulators to consider these factors while developing policies and strategies that foster access to financial products and services and ensure financial inclusion in the region.

The changing population dynamics have substantial impact on economy. This paper investigates the effects of demographic change on economic growth. The share of working age population, child dependency ratio, old-age dependency ratio and age dependency ratio are used as demographic variables. The effects of these variables on the gross domestic product per capita growth rate are examined for the OECD countries covering the period 1970-2021. Four different models are estimated by using panel ARDL estimation method. The findings derived from the estimated models point out that the old-age dependency ratio and age dependency ratio have negative effects on economic growth. On the other hand, the share of working age population has a positive effect on economic growth. These results suggest that demographic change causing an increase in the dependency ratio and a decrease in the share of working age population will have adverse impacts on economic performance in the long run.

Government debt has increased not only in times of economic stress, but it has become a com- mon manifestation of government expenditure funding. The aim of the paper is to inspect the effect of government debt on economic freedom in ten CEE countries between 1995 and 2020 using a panel model approach. Selected quantitative and qualitative variables were examined to validate the hypothesis, including public governance indicators, besides the economic ones. Based on a robust panel setting, we conclude that government debt has a negative impact on economic freedom. A causality from government debt to economic freedom is detected to- gether with a long-term equilibrium relationship between them, with both a long-run and a short-run negative impact of debt on economic freedom. For the considered countries, the gross debt impacts economic freedom and not vice-versa.

We examine the growth effects of public and private investment by using data for a large sample of countries. For the full sample, our dynamic panel estimations indicate that both public and private investment have strong positive effects on growth. Our estimations for income levels also show that the impacts of both public and private investment are positive and statistically significant for developing countries. Interestingly, public and private investment promote growth in developing countries with effective and ineffective governments. It seems that countries can significantly benefit from investment regardless of their institutional quality levels. Furthermore, the effect of public investment generally appears to be larger than that of private investment. Given the robust relationship between investment and growth in both ineffective and effective developing countries, an important policy implication of our study is that both types of investment should be encouraged to foster economic growth.

This paper investigates the transmission from interest rates to household saving behaviour when introducing two main innovations of analysing this relationship. The first one is based on the use of a set of client interest rates instead of one monetary policy rate. This step enables us to distinguish impacts of the substitution and income effects in more detail. The second major innovation lies in the division of households into income categories, which provides us with more observations and thus makes it possible to conduct this analysis even for a single country. Using the generalized method of moments for the dynamic panel data, we analyse Czech household behaviour for the period 2004-2015. The results highlight that when we ignore details of the transmission channel and use only a monetary policy rate, we lose crucial information about contradictory impacts of the substitution and income effects that are primarily reflected in the client interest rates. This fact may clarify most of the interest rate-savings rate puzzle.

This paper investigates the influence of foreign direct investment on innovation by em-ploying the panel cointegration method incorporating multiple structural breaks and a dynamic common correlated estimation for 34 countries over the period 1991-2016. Our findings indicate that the series of innovation and foreign direct investment are stationary after considering the potential structural breaks and that the external shock is mainly from country-specific shocks. Our results also suggest that a long-run co-integrated relationship exists with one break between foreign direct investment and innovation. Furthermore, the estimation based on the dynamic common correlated estimation shows that foreign direct investment has a long-run significant positive influence on technological innovation. Our findings shed light on the importance of accounting for structural breaks when discussing the relationship between foreign direct investment and technological innovation.

Based on OECD country experiences over the period from 1990 to 2015, this research rigorously investigates: (1) how fiscal autonomy effects economic growth; (2) whether there is an optimal level of decentralization; and (3) whether and how other factors influence economic performance in a decentralized economy. We find that revenue decentralization does not affect economic performance. The expenditure decentralization dividend in terms of an enhanced economic growth rate can be achieved only when the initial share of local government expenditure is smaller than the growth-maximizing degree through along with tax collection and trade openness.

Estimation of claims reserves, which should be held by the insurer so as to be able to meet expected future claims arising from policies currently in force and policies written in the past, presents an important task for insurance companies to predict their liabilities. A common approach to the reser-ving problem is based on generalized linear models (GLM). In this article, the application of genera-lized linear mixed models (GLMM) - an extension of the GLM - for estimation of the loss reserves is shown. Since the GLMM allows incorporating a random effect instead of several fixed effects corresponding to the accident years as in case of the GLM, volatility of the prediction is reduced. This allows more flexible risk valuation, which is a crucial element of risk management and capital allocation practices of non-life insurers. A real data example together with diagnostics for the model selection are provided as an illustration of the potential benefits of the presented approach.

The aim of this paper is to examine the interaction patterns between equity and real estate returns in 8 emerging economies from Central and Southeastern Europe. For that purpose we apply the TAR model entailing two regimes and endogenously determined threshold, delay parameter, and lag length. The results suggest that in all the countries, the interaction between equity and real estate returns is subject to regime switching in at least one direction. Equity returns in general seem to be much more sensitive to real estate returns changes, while the reaction of real estate returns to changes in equity returns is not always present and it is much more subdued and delayed. In the majority of the countries, the value of the threshold is large and negative suggesting that equity returns (real estate returns) react differently to large negative changes of real estate returns (equity returns) when compared to changes of different magnitudes and alternative signs. Equity returns react more strongly to large negative changes of the real estate returns than to small negative or positive real estate returns changes, while the reaction of the real estate returns to the equity returns changes varies across countries, making neither regime more prevalent.

The purpose of this study is to determine the validity of the triplet deficit hypothesis, which means the savings gap and budget deficit effect on the current account deficit. The empirical model is estimated for the G7 countries during the period between 1994 and 2011. The findings show that budget deficit and savings gap have important role in current account deficit in terms of estimator results. Moreover, bi-directional causality between the current account deficit and the savings gap and between the budget deficit and the savings gap are determined. So, especially the savings gap has an important effect on the current account deficit and the budget deficit. That is, triplet deficit hypothesis is valid in G7. Moreover, traditional approach is also valid since the causality is found between the current account deficit and budget deficit. Thereby, the authors conclude that the choice of statistical tools in analysing the nature of relationship among the current account deficit, the budget deficit, and the savings gap may play a key role for policy makers.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the way in which capital influences profitability of banks and exposure to risk in seven European countries: Austria, Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Romania, the Netherlands and Hungary. Based on previous studies, we developed a model of simultaneous equations to analyse the relation between capital, risk and performance. The model includes 68 banks and covers the period between 2006 and 2011. In addition, estimations have been made for the three capital ratios (own capital ratio, tier 1 ratio and capital adequacy ratio) for each country included in this study. The obtained results have revealed the existence of a negative relationship between capital and taken risks and a positive relationship between capital and profitability, as well as between risk and profitability.

This paper examines the effect of schooling on economic growth. It tests the link between schooling and economic growth using the system GMM estimation for a panel of 86 countries in the years 1960-2005. Affirming the results of the previous literature the positive impact of schooling on growth has been confirmed. The paper presents two main findings. First, additional year of schooling contributes positively to per capita output growth. Secondly, high percentage share of population with no formal education results in economic growth slowdown.

Income, expenditure and similar variables in monetary units tend to have distributions similar to log-normal. Description of such variables after logarithmic transformation by the normal model is often not accurate enough, especially for multivariate data. Deviations of their empirical distributions from the theoretical lognormal distribution often require more sophisticated analysis. Mixtures represent a very flexible way of reconstructing complex distributions with irregular features and are suitable for detailed modelling. Multivariate mixture models are applied to the Czech longitudinal survey of household income in the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) in 2005-2008. The analysis identifies distinct patterns of progression of income, with a high percentage of households having steady annual increases over the four years (three transitions). Graphical presentation of the results is emphasised.

The aim of this work is to provide new evidence on the factors that determine the flow of FDI among transition countries. The analysis takes into consideration the period of most intense transition and post-transition (1994-2002) of 26 former socialist countries. The empirical estimates enable us to draw two main conclusions: first classical locational FDI factors maintain their role in the context of transition countries, and, second, that FDI are influenced by specific market and institutional factors. Among market variables, relatively higher labour costs surprisingly do not constitute an obstacle for foreign investment. We find that variables reflecting market stabilising institutions play a more important role than those representing market creating institutions. Although, there is a certain tolerance of foreign investors towards weak institutional environment, we demonstrate that, to attract FDI, countries should reinforce their macroeconomic stability by focusing on market stabilising institutions.

This paper analyzes possible incidence of Turkish EU accession on the emigration from Turkey to the European Union. Panel data estimators are applied on the emigration data from EU-18 into Germany in order to construct possible future scenarios of Turkish migration to the EU. Eventual migration flows from Turkey into the EU are forecasted based on the estimated results. We find that seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator that can be applied in Turkey-EU migration framework. Our results reveal that both the network effect and target country labour market conditions represent the strongest determinants for migration, whilst the effect of per capita income is actually relatively low. In particular, Turkish per capita income does not have nearly any effect on migration, because it enters the model in two variables that work against each other. Furthermore, a very low importance of opening the German labour market for Turkish migrants is found. Estimated coefficients are used to predict migrations to Germany, and through appropriate extrapolations to the whole European Union (EU). Three scenarios of migration are created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Turkey into the Germany during next 25 years is further discussed in detail.

This article examines the main current account balance determinants in order to assess the potential excessiveness of current account deficits in selected transition countries. For this purpose, dynamic panel-regression techniques are used to characterise the properties of current account variations across the transition regions. The results are chiefly consistent with the theoretical and previous empirical analysis, indicating a moderate level of current account deficits persistency and negative effects of economic growth, real appreciation and worsening of terms of trade on the external balances. Furthermore, the validity of the stages of development hypothesis and twin deficit hypothesis, as well as the significance of demographic factors is confirmed in the regions. Finally, the results suggest that most transition countries are justified in running relatively high current account deficits.

This paper empirically examines the determinants of economic growth and convergence in transitive economies of Central and Eastern Europe in the 1990s. While the cross-section regression suggests the absence of a significant convergence across the EU15 and other transitive economies, the Visegrad four (Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) dummy being positive and significant indicates that this group of countries has done relatively better than the other group of transitive economies. Moreover, the results indicate that there was an income per capita convergence within Visegrad countries. Switching to a panel data approach, and controlling for macroeconomic stability, financial development, human and physical capital accumulations and other policy variables, the results seem to suggest that there was a conditional convergence across EU15 and transitive economies in the 1990s.

This paper finds that poverty (the savings gap), income instability, and external factors that include debt service payments and capital flight to be the main causes of overseas borrowing by developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s. As far as the empirical strategy is concerned, the application of a panel data approach seems to be highly preferred, as it allows to control time-specific events that are linked to overseas borrowing, particularly given the rapid changes in the global macroeconomic environment in the past years. Moreover, this strategy helps to produce a more robust explanation by allowing to incorporate country-specific factors as developing countries themselves are heterogeneous in terms of their colonial heritages, geopolitical and strategic significance, and creditworthiness, all affecting the level of indebtedness and the potential bargaining power to manage the subsequent debt crisis.