C01 - EconometricsReturn

This paper uses symmetric and asymmetric testing procedures to examine the issue of the relationship between the output gap and inflation for the Turkish economy using data from 2002:01 to 2021:09. First, it analyses the cointegration by applying different cointegration tests taking into account structural breaks and asymmetric behaviour to reveal whether the relation varies between sub-periods. Afterwards, it examines the asymmetric causality between different shocks. Our empirical results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between series in the existence of two structural breaks and asymmetry. The results also show asymmetric causality running from positive (negative) output gap to positive (negative) inflation shock, and running from negative inflation shock to negative output gap shock. The overall findings indicate the importance of having in mind the structural breaks and asymmetric behaviour of macroeconomic variables in policy-making processes, such as in Turkey during high and volatile inflation.

This paper deals with Czech household mortgage debt and its determinants in the period 1Q2005-2Q2021. Our analysis focuses on the variables determining the level of mortgage debt from both short- and long-term perspectives. Our contribution is two-fold. Firstly, we examine the relationship between the selected variables within a cross-correlation analysis. The results confirm the positive dependency of household mortgage debt and real GDP, real gross average income and the level of house prices. By contrast, a negative relationship was identified for real interest rates, the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Secondly, we explore the ARDL and EC models and identify one cointegration relationship. Our results confirm that house prices and real wages are determinants of household mortgage debt in the long-term perspective. However, a wider range of variables plays a role in the short run, including house prices, real gross average income, inflation and long-term interest rates. Moreover, our model indicates the insignificance of unemployment in both the short and long run.

This paper aims to use cluster analysis to monitor changes in the social regimes of EU countries in the context of their economic situation. In the first step, the paper provides an overview of theoretical studies and categorizes countries into individual social regimes based on available studies. Subsequently, hierarchical cluster analyses are performed for 2007 and 2019, one for a group of redistributive variables and one for socio-economic variables. The cluster analysis confirmed that differences among individual social regimes are blurred over time, and belonging to a social regime does not automatically lead to occurrence in the same cluster. The new and old member states are mixed in terms of redistributive variables, while economic differences among these countries are still present.

The paper quantifies the role of factors associated with the growth (or decline) of micro and small businesses in European economies. The growth is related to the levels of employment and value added in enterprises, as well as, ten institutional variables. We test the data for consistency of behavioural patterns in various countries and gradually remove outlying observations that can lead to erroneous conclusions when using the classic estimators; this is a quite unique approach in panel data analysis. In the first part of this paper we outline a highly robust method of estimation based on fixed effects and least trimmed squares (LTS). In its second part we apply this method on the panel data of 28 countries in 2002-2008 testing for the hypothesis that micro and small businesses in Europe use different strategies for their growth. We run a series of econometric tests where we regress employment and total net production in micro and small businesses on three economic factors: gross capital returns, labour cost gaps in small relative to large enterprises and GDP per capita. In addition, we test the role of 10 institutional factors in the growth of family businesses.

In the paper the discrete choice models are discussed and applied based on empirical data. The main goal of the paper is to find out whether the various discrete choice models provide the analyst with the robust and reliable estimates of values of natural goods or values of changed quality of such goods. Our results indicate that the yielded value estimates using the choice experiment method and discrete choice models are applicable in expert support of decision-making on allocation of public resources to such goods, because they are stable and robust. These issues are investigated for the marginal willingness of Czech visitors to the Mácha Lake beaches to pay for the water quality and beach characteristics.

The paper investigates some features of the corruption in the public administration in a country, which is in the process of integrating into the new structures of the European Union. We estimated the parameters of a regression model that analyses factors like political system pressure, administration transparency, and service quality provided by civil servants using data sets for a representative civil servants sample. Using the regression model and ANOVA we came to the conclusion, that the perception of the corruption has significant differences at the level of the four types of public administration institutions analysed in this paper. The main result is that the corruption level in the public administration is negatively influenced by the stability of the remuneration system, by the lack of transparency and by the political system pressure. On the other hand, church, media, and schools have a positive influence on the reduction of the corruption level.