Prague Economic Papers 2020, 29(1):53-66 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.725

Impacts of Global-Economic-Policy Uncertainty on Emerging Stock Market: Evidence from Linear and Non-Linear Models

Mohammad Enamul Hoquea, Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidib
a UKM-Graduate School of Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (The National University of Malaysia), Malaysia
b Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (The National University of Malaysia), Faculty of Economics and Management, Malaysia

Global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) is one of important phenomena in the global economy; it can impact on the overall economic performance and stock market per-formance, regardless of the status of the world economy. Thus, this paper empirically investigates the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on the Malaysian stock market over the period from 10:2003 to 2017:03. Using the GARCH model, the study demonstrates that global policy uncertainty affects the Malaysian stock market negatively. Similarly, the SVAR model also shows results consistent with the GARCH estimation. Nevertheless, the Markov switching estimation uncovers that global policy uncertainty has negative impacts on stock market performance in both low and high volatile market states. The impact is, however, greater during the high volatile state. Hence, the relationship between global economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns tends to be asymmetric. The overall empirical results infer that global economic policy uncertainty has some implications for asset pricing.

Keywords: Global economic policy uncertainty, GARCH, Markov switching, Malaysia, stock market
JEL classification: C58, E32, E37, E44, E52, E62, F50, F65, G10

Received: January 20, 2018; Accepted: January 24, 2019; Prepublished online: September 24, 2019; Published: February 25, 2020  Show citation

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Hoque, M.E., & Azlan Shah Zaidi, M. (2020). Impacts of Global-Economic-Policy Uncertainty on Emerging Stock Market: Evidence from Linear and Non-Linear Models. Prague Economic Papers, 29(1), 53-66. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.725
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