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This paper introduces a novel application of Growth-at-Risk (GaR) as an early warning system (EWS) for predicting recessions. By transforming GaR into a classification model, we assess its ability to signal economic downturns across 11 Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies from 2005 to 2024. We compare GaR’s performance with logistic regression across eight forecasting horizons. Our findings indicate that GaR slightly outperforms the logit model when financial conditions are used as the primary predictor. However, when additional factors such as agents’ expectations and financial flows are incorporated, the performance gap narrows. Our results suggest that Growth-at-Risk can function as an effective early warning system without significant performance trade-offs, while offering a flexible and theoretically grounded alternative. Policymakers can leverage Growth-at-Risk not only as a tail risk instrument but also as a classifier, enhancing their forecasting capabilities.

This paper presents the impact of fiscal councils in the European Union on public fi- nance. Using a fiscal reaction function, the impact of fiscal councils on the discretionary component of fiscal policy is examined. The impact of fiscal councils is a topical issue due to the fact that most EU countries have established fiscal councils in response to the EU legislation adopted after the last financial crisis. The empirical results imply that fiscal councils are complementary to numerical fiscal rules and instrumental for limiting deficit bias in the EU countries, most importantly through monitoring of compliance with fiscal rules and endorsement of macroeconomic and budgetary forecasts. Despite certain research limits, the empirical results point to similar conclusions as from recent papers. Out of the empirical findings, several recommendations can be made for fiscal policy-making.

Green finance aims to achieve a balance between economic performance and sustainable economic development. This study examines the effect of green finance on sustainable eco- nomic development at the national level by spotlighting countries that are at the forefront of green bond issuance. Employing balanced panel data and utilizing a mediation model with fixed effects, the results demonstrate a significant ability of green finance to mitigate carbon emissions and promote high-quality economic development. The robustness of the findings is confirmed by a series of statistical tests. Furthermore, the renewable energy consumption structure enhances the suppressive effect of green finance on carbon emissions, highlighting its crucial role as a channel for mitigating carbon emissions. Overall, increasing green bond investment and structuring renewable energy consumption are crucial for carbon emission reduction, and this paper contributes new evidence regarding the emission reduction effects of green finance. It also offers several policy implications: by prioritizing green finance, R&D, and renewable energy consumption, the policymakers can achieve high quality economic development and lower carbon emissions.

This paper deals with Czech household mortgage debt and its determinants in the period 1Q2005-2Q2021. Our analysis focuses on the variables determining the level of mortgage debt from both short- and long-term perspectives. Our contribution is two-fold. Firstly, we examine the relationship between the selected variables within a cross-correlation analysis. The results confirm the positive dependency of household mortgage debt and real GDP, real gross average income and the level of house prices. By contrast, a negative relationship was identified for real interest rates, the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Secondly, we explore the ARDL and EC models and identify one cointegration relationship. Our results confirm that house prices and real wages are determinants of household mortgage debt in the long-term perspective. However, a wider range of variables plays a role in the short run, including house prices, real gross average income, inflation and long-term interest rates. Moreover, our model indicates the insignificance of unemployment in both the short and long run.

Modeling policy effects in the context of high-dimensional data requires a balanced consideration of omitted interaction bias and overfitting problems. This paper investigates the role of machine learning algorithms in stabilizing estimates and demonstrates the possible regularization bias caused by common LASSO methods. To overcome the three problems simultaneously, post-double selection is used to screen for the interaction terms that need to be included in the model, and the variance estimates are expanded to measure the uncertainty of the interaction effects and marginal effects. Monte Carlo simulations analyze the main factors affecting conditional and non-linear relationships: covariance and sample size. The results of empirical examples show that different model settings and estimation methods can lead to observable differences in the conclusion of treatment effect heterogeneity, and in general, post-double selection has better performance than other estimation methods.

This study explores the determinants of sectoral wage dynamics in Croatia, including inter-sectoral wage linkages, using both panel data methods and Granger causality analysis. Given the large deficits in Croatian merchandise trade and accumulated external liabilities, wage formation in the exporting sectors receives a particular focus. It has been found that exporters are wage leaders and that labour productivity is a more important wage determinant for the exporting sectors than for other sectors. Public sector wages do not affect wages in private sectors. There are, however, wage spillovers within the group of exporting sectors and possibly a bi-directional causal relationship between wages in exporting and private sheltered sectors. Thus, some exporting industries may face pressure from wage increases in more successful exporting sectors as well as in private sheltered sectors. A more coordinated wage-setting system could contribute to improving overall export performance and reducing external trade imbalances.

The article discusses which policies and to what extent should be financed from the EU budget and/or from the national budgets of the EU member states to satisfy the rationale and efficiency point of view. To answer these questions we discuss the existing approaches and apply the most relevant ones (in particular the theory of fiscal federalism and public sector economics) to examine the current structure of the EU budget expenditures. We conclude that there are few EU policies that would be more efficient if they were more fiscally centralized and there is a policy that should be brought down to national (regional) level.

This paper analyses the impact of German macroeconomic news announcements and ECB meeting days on the conditional volatility of the Czech, Polish, and Hungarian Foreign Exchange markets as proxied by CZK/EUR, PLN/EUR, and HUF/EUR exchange rate returns over six years (2010-2015). A currency intervention period (11/2013-2015) in the Czech Republic is examined separately. EGARCH-type models with normal and Student's t-distributions are employed. The comprehensive analysis shows the following results. (i) The IFO index, Factory Orders increase and the PMI index from the Service Sector, the labour market data decrease conditional volatility of PLN/EUR. (ii) The IFO index and Industrial Production increase conditional volatility of HUF/EUR on the day of the announcement. (iii) Data from the labour market has a calming effect on CZK/EUR after the central bank launched currency interventions. (iv) IFO index increases and the PMI index from the Manufacturing Sector decreases conditional volatility of CZK/EUR before currency interventions were introduced (2010-11/2013).

This article investigates the relationship between environmentally related taxes introduced in OECD countries and air pollution, represented by carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emission levels in the atmosphere. The article makes a statistical analysis of data on environmental taxes, specifically energy and transport taxes, and other variables that might affect air quality in the OECD member countries. The ARDL model used on the panel data of all OECD member countries shows statistical significance in only one out of five models. A subsequent comparative analysis of the reduced sample of OECD countries that are members of the EU exhibits a statistically significant effect of environmentally related tax revenues on the air emission levels, indicating that this relationship is present in the reduced sample.

This paper investigates current budgeting practices of Czech companies. The article aims to provide recent empirical evidence on the impact of business complexity on budgeting in the Czech Republic, with the main focus on modern budgeting methods. Despite the plethora of critical voices against traditional budgeting, budgeting remains an essential part of most companies' corporate governance. The empirical investigation is based on a questionnaire survey and its statistical evaluation using tests of goodness of fit and cluster analysis. Fundamental research questions of the paper include the influence of business complexity on Czech companies' budgeting practices, factors that currently play an essential role and their importance, and the approach of Czech companies to modern budgeting practices. The results indicate that Czech firms use various financial management tools, including budgets. Traditional budgeting methods are still dominant in most companies; empirical data evaluation confirmed mild differences between companies financed by domestic and foreign capital; nevertheless, those distinctions were not confirmed by statistical testing. Essential factors in the budgeting practice of the respondents are the connection of budgets to strategic planning and the possibility of using budgets as a tool for business performance evaluation.

This paper presents the construction of a new indicator (named the JT index) evaluating the economy's financial stability, which is based on a financial scoring model estimated on Czech corporate accounting data. Seven financial indicators capable of explaining business failure at a 1-year prediction horizon are identified. Using the model estimated in this way, an aggregate indicator of the creditworthiness of the Czech corporate sector (the JT index) is then constructed and its evolution over time is shown. This indicator aids the estimation of the risks of this sector going forward and broadens the existing analytical set-up used by the Czech National Bank for its financial stability analyses. The results suggest that the creditworthiness of the Czech corporate sector steadily improved between 2004 and 2006. However, the JT index for 2007 and 2008 deteriorated what could be explained through global market turbulences while the further decrease in 2009 rather by the global recession. The used methodology for the construction of the JT index might be suitable for decision makers when evaluating the economy's financial stability. Although our research is done as a case study on the Czech Republic, its basic idea might be easily applied to other countries as well.

Although the use of residential real estate macroprudential tools has become common in recent years, rigorous approaches to their calibration have been relatively scarce. The goal of this paper is to present an approach to (i) evaluating direct risks to financial stability related to residential real estate exposures, and to (ii) calibrating borrower-based macroprudential measures. First we present a macroprudential indicator of potential losses related to the provision of new mortgage loans. Then we show how to determine risky values of the loan-to-value, loan-to-income and loan service-to-income ratios by per-forming stress tests on the individual new mortgage loans. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of this approach on the case of the Czech Republic. We conclude by show-ing that simultaneous adoption of several macroprudential measures may enhance their efficiency without imposing higher restrictions on the mortgage market.

The aim of the article is to answer the question whether the tax benefits that can be obtained by the self-employed in Poland influence the decision to start their own business. In the study, the EUROMOD microsimulation model is used to determine tax benefits from self-employment. The estimated tax benefits are then used in a probit regression to explain the probability of self-employment. The survey is carried out for both original EU-SILC data and adjusted data, assuming that the income reported by the self-employed is underreported. The results of the survey based on the original data indicate that taxpayers make irrational decisions about taking up self-employment. This is because as the benefits of self-employment increase, the probability of self-employment decreases. After ad-justing the data on self-employed income with the underreported income, the results of the analysis lead to the opposite conclusion.

Czechia is one of the most export-oriented countries, reaching high levels of economic complexity. However, its innovative capabilities remain limited. Taking these factors into consideration, we determined the country's optimal diversification path by identifying prospective export sectors which would enhance the country's competitiveness. We combine the product space and proximity methodologies on predicted export data together with a company-level analysis. We identified machinery for specialized industries and parts thereof (SITC 7284), machine-tools for specialized industries parts or accessories (SITC 7281) and power hand tools, pneumatic or non-electric, and parts thereof (SITC 7541) as the most prospective categories in terms of high complexity, expected trade volume growth, proximity to Czechia's existing production capabilities and manufacturing base operated by large, highly innovative Czech-owned firms.

The changing population dynamics have substantial impact on economy. This paper investigates the effects of demographic change on economic growth. The share of working age population, child dependency ratio, old-age dependency ratio and age dependency ratio are used as demographic variables. The effects of these variables on the gross domestic product per capita growth rate are examined for the OECD countries covering the period 1970-2021. Four different models are estimated by using panel ARDL estimation method. The findings derived from the estimated models point out that the old-age dependency ratio and age dependency ratio have negative effects on economic growth. On the other hand, the share of working age population has a positive effect on economic growth. These results suggest that demographic change causing an increase in the dependency ratio and a decrease in the share of working age population will have adverse impacts on economic performance in the long run.

Price changes on all international financial and commodity markets have shown a sig- nificant correlation. The correlation dependence increased due to macroeconomic changes that led to cyclical economic trends caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the new economic circumstances, there has been a change in investment strategy of individual and institutional investors. The investment portfolios have increased in demand related to the purchase of gold, seen as a safe-haven asset, which has led to significant growth in aggregate demand on the international precious metals market. This paper deals with a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between the investment in gold as an asset and the movement of major world market indices. We used cryptocurrency (bitcoin) volatility as an independent variable in the model. We tested its correlation to the other major market indices and gold as a safe-haven asset. Related to a proposed model based on GARCH DCC and the Generalised Reduced Gradient (GDR) algorithm, we set up the Hedging Effectiveness (HE) index and an optimally weighted investment portfolio.

Motivated by the persistent fall in oil prices due to incessant uncertainty-inducing events in recent years, this study empirically examined if economic growth in Africa's top five oil exporters (Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Libya, and Nigeria) is responding asymmetrically to changes in global economic uncertainty as well as uncertainties from U.S., Europe and China using nonlinear ARDL framework from 1997Q1 to 2021Q4. We find that rising global uncertainty hampers economic growth in these economies, while declining global uncertainty significantly enhances growth in Nigeria, Angola and Libya in the short run, but becomes growth-retarding in the long run. Thus, economic growth responds asymmetrically to global uncertainty, especially in the short run. The findings are robust to U.S., Europe, and China uncertainties, except that economic growth in Libya and Algeria remained unresponsive to U.S. and China uncertainties respectively. We concluded that Africa's oil exporters should embrace policies that can strengthen their resilience to global economic uncertainty as well as uncertainties from U.S., Europe, and China.

The EU Cohesion Policy is one of the European Union’s key policy instruments for reducing economic and social disparities among its regions. The paper evaluates the policy contribution to regional economic growth in V4 (Visegrad Four) countries. The study establishes a significant variation in ESIF (European Structural and Investment Funds) distribution at the NUTS2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) level within the V4 regions over 2000–2018. It suggests that ESIF absorption was not evenly distributed across regions within the V4 countries. This finding indicates that regional disparities in ESIF distribution may have contributed to economic imbalances within the countries. Secondly, a causal link between regional growth and ESIF absorption is identified. Along with other covariates, the use of the ESIF shows a statistically significant, although very modest, effect on the economic growth of V4 countries. Finally, the assumption of cross-country growth dispersion is investigated. The research results suggest statistically significant regional growth differences between Czechia and Slovakia on the one hand and Poland and Hungary on the other. It implies that the impact of ESIF absorption on economic growth may have varied among these V4 countries, potentially due to differences in policy implementation, economic structures or other factors.

Foreign banks have played a major role in Central and Eastern European economic landscape over the last decades. They have spurred banking intermediation and fuelled economic growth for years. However, the global financial crisis unveiled the other side of the coin. This article analyses foreign banks' lending behaviour in Central and Eastern Europe over the period from 2000 to 2016. It aims to investigate the nexus between bank loan growth, cross-border bank claims and the cycle period. Moreover, it captures the impact of the financial cycle on foreign banks' credit behaviour and highlights whether foreign bank ownership is influenced by host- and home-country effects. Our findings reveal the strong nexus between foreign banks' loan growth and cross-border bank claims. Also, we emphasize the pro-cyclicality of foreign banks' loan growth and cross-border bank claims. Furthermore, we see clear differences related to foreign banks' lending behaviour during normal and turbulent times, triggered by host- and home-country effects. These results raise policy challenges regarding the right bank ownership balance and the use of prudential regulation.

The relationship between R&D expenditures and firm growth is examined for a cross-country firm-level dataset for the EU countries in the period from 1989 to 2019. A panel dynamic average treatment effect is estimated using a panel time-varying dynamic difference-in-differences model. The methodology can be counted as novel. The results show a positive and significant relationship between R&D and firm growth within the first five years of R&D investment in the 22 EU countries, over 700 firms and 30 years. The main novelty of the present study comes from examining the time-varying effect of R&D expenditures on firm growth for manufacturing firms in EU countries.

The paper explores the interconnections between foreign capital flows and the exchange rate regime switching in developing countries. We formulate the exchange rate regime switching as annual time series of binary/ordered variables employing de facto classification of exchange rate arrangements and regress them on the financial account capital flows for a panel of 28 developing countries which experienced change in their exchange rate regime during the period 2000-2016. Employing probit and logit regression, we discover the FDI, portfolio flows and changes in reserve assets to precede and/or coincide with switching. Specifically, accumulation of foreign reserves increases the probability of switching from floating to peg, while their spending coincides with exits from pegged regimes; at the same time, outflows of FDI and portfolio investments tend to accompany exchange rate regime liberalization, although the evidence on that is less consistent.

This paper aims to use cluster analysis to monitor changes in the social regimes of EU countries in the context of their economic situation. In the first step, the paper provides an overview of theoretical studies and categorizes countries into individual social regimes based on available studies. Subsequently, hierarchical cluster analyses are performed for 2007 and 2019, one for a group of redistributive variables and one for socio-economic variables. The cluster analysis confirmed that differences among individual social regimes are blurred over time, and belonging to a social regime does not automatically lead to occurrence in the same cluster. The new and old member states are mixed in terms of redistributive variables, while economic differences among these countries are still present.

The research and investment community seems to ignore the long-term sustainability of Bitcoin, which is reflected in four flaws: transaction fees, miners' revenue, concentration and electricity consumption. While most of the authors have aimed to examine one topic at a time, with a particular interest in electricity consumption and carbon footprint, the aim of this paper is to examine all these issues simultaneously to provide a more comprehensive view on long-term sustainability of Bitcoin. This paper looks at these flaws and reveals why Bitcoin is not sustainable in the long run, how decentralization is being lost, how the design is putting artificial and unrealistic pressure on the ecosystem, while all being powered by an unjustifiable amount of dirty electricity sources. Our main findings are as follows. Firstly, transaction fees are already high and set to increase in time, further discriminating small transactions against big ones. Secondly, miners' revenue comes mostly from the block reward. The block reward is the main income source for miners, but is set to be cut on a regular basis, making miners' revenue not sustainable in the long run. Thirdly, miner concentration is already an issue, with a possibility of deepening even more and diminishing the idea of decentralization. Fourthly, the high electricity demand and the associated carbon footprint thus cannot be justified by any means. We deem our results useful for overall policy and regulatory implications.

Catastrophic natural events in the Czech Republic have always caused a considerable burden on public finance. However, this risk can be transferred to capital market investors through CAT bonds, which have never been used for this purpose in the Czech Republic. The paper deals with the theoretical background of CAT bonds, resulting in a back test simulation of a hypothetical CAT bond issued for the period 1999-2003. As a result, by transferring the risk to the capital market, investors could save a significant part of the Czech Republic's public funds.

This study accounts for the nexus between financial development and intra-trade relationships using nine Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countries with the extraction of data from secondary sources spanning between 1990 and 2021. The following are the con- clusions drawn from the study: exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate, which are criti- cal macroeconomic variables, represent unfavourable factors that suppress the intra-trade rela- tionships within the RCEP region. In light of the above, this study recommends that any time the policymakers in RCEP countries desire better intra-trade relationships within RCEP countries, they should implement a unified monetary policy that will stimulate interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate in such a way that the intra-trade relationships will be enhanced among the RCEP countries.

Government debt has increased not only in times of economic stress, but it has become a com- mon manifestation of government expenditure funding. The aim of the paper is to inspect the effect of government debt on economic freedom in ten CEE countries between 1995 and 2020 using a panel model approach. Selected quantitative and qualitative variables were examined to validate the hypothesis, including public governance indicators, besides the economic ones. Based on a robust panel setting, we conclude that government debt has a negative impact on economic freedom. A causality from government debt to economic freedom is detected to- gether with a long-term equilibrium relationship between them, with both a long-run and a short-run negative impact of debt on economic freedom. For the considered countries, the gross debt impacts economic freedom and not vice-versa.

This paper employs a dynamic herding approach that takes herding under different market regimes into account. We use daily data on US stock returns for the S&P 500 ranging from 2006 to 2017. The results of the linear model yield no evidence of herding. However, the findings of switching regression of Bai and Perron (1998) demonstrate evidence of herding during crisis regimes of S&P 500. The alternative approach of Markov switching also supports these findings.

In this study, sustainability of budget deficits in Turkey is examined empirically for the pe- riod from January 2006 to September 2020, using time series techniques based on monthly data, under the intertemporal budget constraint approach. In the analysis phase, the Johansen cointegration method was used for the long-term relationship of the series. Analysis results indicated that income and expenditure series are not cointegrated. It is concluded that budget policies for the period under consideration in Turkey are unsustainable; therefore, the applied fiscal policies should be reviewed.

We study convergence and club formation of housing prices in European countries using several measures of housing prices. We employ correlations, innovative trend and gap approaches, and cointegration analysis to study the long-term development of housing prices and their reactions to crises. We find that housing prices in European countries do not converge and their development since the creation of the monetary union has differed. The most prominent examples are the differences between Southern European countries heavily affected by the Global Financial Crisis and the rest of the countries. Our analysis reveals several country clubs with similar growth patterns and reaction to crises which do not necessarily follow the traditional division between old and new EU member states. Our findings are in line with the literature, which finds that housing prices in the EU do not converge overall, and housing prices do not co-move in general, but only within smaller subgroups, which may be regionally dispersed.

Multinational enterprises apply aggressive tax planning (ATP) to optimize global tax liability usually by combining parameters of different tax systems in both national jurisdictions and double tax treaties. At a macroeconomic level, the implementation of various optimization schemes affects the given values of the balance of payments. By conducting econometric analysis, the present paper examines the extent to which selected optimization schemes can be traced in the Czech Republic's balance of payments. The results show that payments for counselling services and royalties flow mostly to locations with low corporate tax rates, which may suggest an attempt to shift the tax base. Moreover, dividend and interest yields tend to move to countries with high foreign direct investments (FDIs) and balanced ratios between FDIs received and made, indicating that they are only conduit (transit) countries through which profits are transferred to another destination.