Fulltext search in archive

This paper uses the projection pursuit method (PP method) to construct a comprehensive output indicator and uses the heterogeneous stochastic frontier model (HSFM model) to calculate China's green economy efficiency and analyse effects of environmental factors on the inefficiency fluctuation of green economy. Conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) The average value of China's green economy efficiency is generally low, and a regional heterogeneity of green economy efficiency is obvious. (2) For the overall inefficiency fluctuation of China's green economy, openness has a significant inhibitory effect; the industrialization level and technological level have a certain inhibitory effect, but their importance is weaker than that of openness; fiscal decentralization has an insignificant effect. Since 2001, changes in unit openness and the unit industrialization level have had a strengthened restraining effect on the inefficiency fluctuations of China's green economy, and the change in the unit technology level has had a small and stable inhibitory effect on China's green economy's inefficiency fluctuation. (3) Openness and the industrialization level have had a significant inhibitory effect on the inefficiency fluctuation of China's regional green economy in the Eastern region more than in the Central and Western regions; the technological level has had a certain inhibitory effect in the Central and Western regions, but its influence is lower than that of openness. The inhibitory effect of unit change in openness and the industrialization level on the inefficiency fluctuation of green economy in the Central region is greater than that in the Eastern region. The inhibitory effect of unit change in the technological level on the inefficiency fluctuation of green economy in the Western region is obviously greater than that in the Central and Eastern regions. These conclusions can provide a mathematical basis for a reform of China's green economy efficiency.

Psychological traits have received significant attention in labour market research in recent decades. Unfortunately, empirical evidence remains limited for some psychological traits and their interactions. To address this gap, we conduct a representative survey of employees, assessing competitiveness, persistence, and risk tolerance using single-item scales. This comprehensive study sheds light on the connection between these traits and wages. Our results confirm that individuals possessing these traits tend to earn higher wages, even when we account for indirect factors, such as higher educational attainment and better job positions. It also suggests that competitiveness and risk tolerance are particularly valuable for individuals with middle and high incomes, while persistence is valuable for those with low and middle incomes. These findings support the systematic development of competitiveness, persistence, and risk tolerance through education and sporting activities.

The active participation of the central bank in exchange rate management has accelerated the growth of foreign exchange reserve in India. The massive reserve stockpiling has substantially contributed to apprehensions about excess liquidity in the domestic economy. The extent to which these concerns are justified depends on the degree to which the central bank is able to mitigate its effects on monetary aggregates. This study is an attempt to assess the magnitude of the sterilization coefficient by using quarterly data from 1996 to 2019. In order to estimate sterilization and offset coefficients, the study employed the two-stage least squares (2SLS) method under the theoretical framework of simultaneous equation modelling. The findings show that the reserve accumulation through central bank interventions puts pressure on money supply. However, the RBI sterilization policy was effective as the central bank was able to sterilize 93 percent of its interventions, while the offset coefficient was 72 percent during the period of study. The low value of the offset coefficient compared to the sterilization coefficient indicates a high degree of monetary policy independence in neutralizing the central bank's purchase interventions. Based on the findings, it can be recommended that policymakers should consider the sustainability of interventions and sterilization operations as the dual policy objectives of independent exchange rate management and monetary policy cannot be achieved in the presence of a high interest rate in an inflation-targeting regime.

We Examine the Comovement between China's Commodity Futures and World Crude Oil Prices Based on Their Daily Return Series. Using a Dynamic Time-Varying Approach, We Combine the Generalized Autoregressive Score (Gas) Model with the Copula Approach, Allowing for Asymmetry and Tail Dependence. Our Results Demonstrate a Significant Nonlinear Causal Impact of World Crude Oil Prices on Each of China's Commodities. The Comovement between China's Commodity Futures and Crude Oil Prices Is Positive, with Varying Degrees of Significance across Different Commodity Types. Notably, Non-Ferrous Metal and Chemical Commodity Futures Are More Vulnerable to Rising Crude Oil Prices. From a Dynamic Perspective, We Observe Continued Volatility in the Comovement between China's Commodity Futures and World Crude Oil Prices in Recent Years. Moreover, the Time-Varying Dependence between the Three Non-Ferrous Metals and Crude Oil Prices Is Higher than That of Other Commodities. These Findings Hold Significant Implications for Global Investors, Risk Managers and Policymakers.

This study analyses macroeconomic factors, especially the level of GDP and its changes, in terms of their impact on the revenues of Polish local governments from 1999 to 2016. The importance of the factors in managing local finances is growing because of the increasing threats of globalisation and economies becoming more vulnerable to exogenous shocks. This article attempts to identify the structural weaknesses of the local government revenue system in Poland in the context of macroeconomic circumstances. It follows from our research that the property tax and general state grants are relatively insensitive to GDP changes and that they are capable of ensuring local revenue stability during a crisis. Greater sensitivity to economic fluctuations is shown by shared income taxes. The study analyses Central Statistical Office and Eurostat data using an advanced research approach, the key elements of which are cointegration analysis and a vector error correction model.

This paper empirically analyses the determining factors of the growth in the migration rate in the countries of the Western Balkans. The analysis is carried out with panel data over 17 years from 2005 to 2021. The purpose of this paper is to analyse social variables such as unemployment and standard of living, and political variables such as corruption, political stability, government effectiveness, rule of law and the level of corruption in the migration of citizens. For this purpose, we employ different econometric models and techniques such as OLS, OLS robust fixed and random effects models, and GMM (generalized method of moments). The study's findings demonstrate that high levels of unemployment in the Western Balkan region are the primary cause of the surge in migration; thus, large levels of labour force migration are also present in these countries. The findings also show that variables related to the political situation have statistical significance in reducing migration. The paper does not find a statistically significant influence of the level of corruption on migration. The recommendations for the countries of the Western Balkan region are to create long-term sustainable employment policies and increase wages as preventive measures for migration.

Business R&D spending has been shown to exert both direct and indirect positive effects on value added. Nevertheless, the heterogeneity of the returns to R&D has seldom been examined. Using detailed sectoral data from Czechia over the period 1995-2015, this study finds that privately funded business R&D has both direct and spillover effects, but that the publicly funded part of business R&D only leads to spillovers. The results further suggest that both upstream and downstream spillovers matter, regardless of the source of funding, and that during the period studied, R&D returns were heavily affected by the economic crisis. Lastly, private R&D offers significant returns only after reaching a critical mass, while the effects of public R&D spending do not display such non-linearity. This heterogeneity in the returns to business R&D should be reflected in innovation policy design.

What type of R&D is essential for creating innovations? Is in-house R&D more efficient than purchasing external innovations? The question of various strategies for private firms to succeed in developing innovations is key for ongoing national and international programmes for raising innovativeness of economies. The goal of the paper is to investigate the outcomes of different types of R&D in the context of innovations and to analyse their significance in European countries empirically. In this paper, we aim to provide a quantitative analysis of the problem on the data collected from the Common Innovation Survey. We cover innovations in products, services, production methods, distribution systems and supporting activities. The results suggest that both in-house and external R&D matter for firms' innovativeness, but the effect is stronger for the former for most of the types of innovations considered.

There is no consensus on the key drivers of financial inclusion due to variation in the socioeconomic features of countries, use of indicators and research methods. The main objective of this study is, therefore, to empirically examine the key drivers of financial inclusion across 26 selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies for the period between 2000 and 2019, using a system generalized method of moments (GMM). A principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to construct a composite index of financial inclusion to address the multi-dimensional nature of the variable. The findings of the study indicate that both the macroeconomic and microeconomic factors influence the level of financial inclusion of the SSA countries. Specifically, the lag effect, economic growth, financial stability, inflation, financial deepening, liquidity, profitability, and bank efficiency are important drivers of financial inclusion in the SSA region. It is therefore important for policy makers and regulators to consider these factors while developing policies and strategies that foster access to financial products and services and ensure financial inclusion in the region.

The paper aims at measuring the efficiency of the digital economy in EU countries. For that purpose, data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used. Sub-dimensions of the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) are used as inputs and the Sustainable Development Goals Index (SDGI) as an output. The results revealed that Bulgaria, Italy and Romania are the most efficient digital economies in terms of human capital; Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Lithuania, Poland and Portugal in terms of connectivity; Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania in terms of integration of digital technology; and Romania in terms of digital public services. The result of tobit regression analysis showed that not all the indicators of the DESI dimensions positively influence the efficiency of the digital economy.

We investigate commonality and heterogeneity of inflationary processes in ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries over the period 2001-2013. The research is important for the analysis of monetary policy as it helps understand the origin of price formation from both sectoral and country perspective. With a multi-level factor model we decompose product-level inflation rates into the CEE region-wide, sector, country, country-sector, and idiosyncratic components. The outcomes indicate that CEE region-wide and country specific components are more persistent than sector and product-level components, which is in line with similar studies for core EU countries. Regional factors explain about 17% of variance in monthly price changes, which is more than any other factors (below 10% each). This result is at odds with the assumptions of many sectoral DSGE models and empirical evidence on the importance of sectoral price shocks in developed economies. The difference may be related to the conclusion that the first regional factor is associated with common disinflationary process that occurred in CEE economies in the 2000s, whereas the second one reveals significant correlations with global factors, especially commodity prices and euro area price developments.

This paper empirically examines the possible causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Serbia. In this regard, the focus is on the development of financial intermediation by banks, considering the fact that the banking sector plays an important role in Serbian financial system. The empirical research is based on quarterly data for the period Q1 2004-Q4 2011 by using Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Our empirical findings suggest that process of economic growth contributes to process of financial deepening. On the other hand, the results indicate that there is a significant unidirectional causality that runs from both private enterprise credit to GDP and household credit to GDP to economic growth. Bidirectional causal relation is confirmed only between the share of bank credit to nonfinancial private sector in total domestic credit and economic growth rate.

This paper provides empirical evidence in support of the view that quality of institutions is an important determinant of medium and long-term growth in OECD countries. Regarding the methodology, a panel data analysis with two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation will be used to account for the endogeneity of the institutional variable. Besides institutional quality, we also consider other relevant determinants of potential growth such as the initial level of GDP per capita, public debt, and structural variables typically referred to in economic growth theory. Our estimation results show a positive impact of institutions on subsequent economic growth: an increase in 1 point in institutional quality leads to an estimated increase of 16.88 percentage points in potential GDP per capita growth, in the case of high-debt countries. With this, we notice a particular rel- evance of institutions in countries with high levels of debt. Therefore, our findings support the necessary attention to the institutional tissue of societies since improvements in institutional quality can subsequently improve economic growth.

The tax wedge mainly quantifies the extent to which tax on labour income enervates employment and it reflects the total labour costs. It is commonly defined as the ratio between the amount of taxes paid by the worker and the related total labour costs for the employer. As such, the tax wedge affects both the labour force (unemployment) by reflecting the burden of the employer and indirectly the household disposable income. It is conferred that the alteration caused by the tax wedge on income distribution has been analysed with a small number of empirical studies. Based on the hypothesis that the tax wedge may affect income distribution from different aspects in terms of household size and income level, dynamic panel data analysis is carried out for 36 OECD member countries and the period 2000-2019. The dynamic panel analysis estimation findings for two households (single person with no children, earning 167% of the average wage, and one-earner married couple with two children, earning 100% of average wages) reveal that the tax wedge is negatively related to unfair income distribution. In addition, the aspect of the relationship is the same (negative) for the two households.

The aim of the paper is to analyse the association between the use of accrual-based and real earnings management practices before the company goes public and the decision of institutional investors on buying or refraining from buying shares offered in initial public offering (IPO). The sample consists of 258 Polish new stock companies over the period 2005-2020. We find that such companies refrain from massive earnings management in the pre-IPO period: both real and accrual-based. However, we find evidence that the presence of institutional investors in the IPO is related to earnings inflation (selling, general and administrative expenses). Our study contributes to the debate on the role of institutional ownership in the IPO process in Central and Eastern Europe.

Observing the expanding and high share of export of travel services in both GDP and total export of services in Mediterranean countries, we focus our research on travel service export in twelve countries from 1998 to 2018. We investigated both short-term and long-term significance of export of travel services for GDP growth in Mediterranean countries using the VAR and VECM model and the fixed-effects panel OLS model. In our analysis of significance of export of travel services on current account balance, we applied an accounting approach. Our application of the fixed-effects OLS model on the panel data with GDP growth rate as the dependent variable has shown that, in the short run, export of travel services has a positive impact on GDP growth. In the long run, Granger causality based on block exogeneity Wald tests evidenced that export of travel services has a positive impact on GDP growth, but only at the 10% significance level. Following the accounting approach in our analysis of impact of export of travel services on overall current account balance, we evidenced a strong relevance of export of travel services in achieving current account balance equilibrium.

During the 2008 economic crisis, labour market inactivity, unemployment and work informality in Serbia rose substantially, triggering a salient increase in Gini-measured inequality (by 4.3 pp), while income tax progressivity remained very low. Using the micro-simulation and utility function estimation techniques on 2007 and 2012 household survey data for Serbia, we compare the social welfare effects of a hypothetical shift from flat to progressive taxation, before and after the crisis. We find that a shift from flat to progressive tax and the consequent behavioural response lead to a reduction in inequality, a rise in total labour supply and an increase in the overall social welfare in both years. Although the decrease in inequality is higher in 2012, the overall welfare effects are slightly larger in 2007, due to the stronger labour supply response and the stronger disutility of work found in the latter year. This may suggest that a rise in inequality does not per se create a stronger case for progressive taxation, as the welfare effects are considerably driven by the structure of income-leisure preferences.

Fertilizer has brought great pressure to sustainable ecological environment. Research on the effect of price on fertilizer use as well as the substitution relationship of fertilizer and other input factors of agricultural production is of great importance for green, efficient, and intensive agricultural production in the world. This study first constructs translog cost functions and models of elasticity, then uses the factor input and price data from 2004 to 2016 to measure the price elasticity of fertilizer demand, and the elasticity of factor substitution in China's maize and cabbage production. The results suggest that: the price elasticity of fertilizer demand is in a low elasticity range; there is a compensation relationship between fertilizer and labour and a substitution relationship between fertilizer and machinery in China's maize production, while these relationships in China's cabbage production are opposite.

Uncertainty about monetary policy associated with uncertainty in interest rate is an important determinant of economic decisions. Due to the dominant position of the US economy on global financial markets, in addition to countries' own uncertainties, uncertainty related to the monetary policy of the USA may have an impact on other economies. In this study, we investigated the impact of interest rate uncertainties for different maturities on industrial production, inflation, unemployment and exchange rate. We used the impulse response functions based on the vector error correction model (VECM). We also conducted the Granger causality test to analyse the causality. We examined the impact of US monetary policy uncertainty on the mentioned variables of Turkey. Our findings suggest that uncertainty in long-term interest rates increases unemployment and inflation rates. Although we find that uncertainty in interest rate reduces growth of industrial production, we do not find a causal relationship between these variables. Finally, we show that a shock related to US monetary policy uncertainty tends to increase unemployment significantly, while reducing the growth of production.

This article aims to analyse the issue of a lack of rules on the insurance cover of interest from an OECD perspective during the period 2010-2020. Export credit agencies (ECAs) support export and apply minimum premium rates (MPRs) to the principal amount only, while the insurance agreement covers also the interest amount. This area can be described as a grey zone, because ECAs can decide themselves what cover they provide for a limited price. This paper explains which parts of a lending rate should be covered under credit insurance and provides theoretical and empirical analysis of the maximum extent of interest cover. The extent of such cover is closely related to the return on ECAs' investments. An excessive amount of interest cover creates room for market failures such as moral hazard or adverse selection, which have a negative impact on the domestic economy. The right amount of interest cover, on the other hand, guarantees long-term sustainability and a level playing field among ECAs, as the OECD requires.

When there is bad news hoarding from managers, returns of stocks are no longer efficient. We hypothesize that a proxy for efficient returns predicts stock price bubbles, crashes and crash risk. We find evidence in support of our hypotheses. Lagged price efficiency significantly predicts bubbles, crashes and crash risk in multivariate linear regressions and logit regressions, as predicted by our hypotheses. We also find that the lagged probability of bubbles is only correlated with future returns. In contrast, the lagged probability of crashes is correlated with both future returns and fundamental values of stocks. This result validates our explanation for the formation of bubbles and crashes. Finally, the out-of-sample accuracy ratio of our bubble and the crash prediction model is higher than in previous studies. Our results provide alternative explanations of the mechanics of stock price bubbles and crashes and are helpful for academicians, investors and policymakers.

This study aims to estimate a dynamic fiscal reaction function in a state-space setting to obtain time-varying reaction parameters for appraising the evolution of public debt sustainability in Turkey. The data set used for estimation is the longest for Turkey in the literature. Succinctly speaking, this function quantifies the corrective fiscal efforts exerted to preserve the stability of public debt. The time-varying estimation findings in this study suggest that the recent fiscal history of Turkey can be divided into two subperiods in terms of fiscal stability. Before the mid-1990s, no systematic fiscal response existed to restore the stability of public debt, whereas after the mid-1990s, a remarkable effort was evidenced by the positive fiscal reaction parameters. Notwithstanding some 20 years of strong positive reactions, the former performance appears to be far-off in recent years, and the strength of fiscal reaction has waned gradually, which is perturbing for the future course of fiscal sustainability.

This study revisits the empirical relationship between output volatility and output for twelve OECD countries. An extended AR-EGARCH-M model was used to identify the structural break, asymmetric effect, jump effect and spillover effect. In addition to the classical logarithmic definition of growth, the study uses the Hodrick-Prescott filter to compute the deviations from the long-term trend as the output gap. The empirical results show that (i) the effect of output volatility on output differs across countries under the same model specifications; and (ii) while the in-mean effect and spillover effect are stronger for the output gap-based models, the jump effect has a major effect on output volatility under the classical logarithmic definition.

This paper investigates whether inflows of FDI and innovative activities act as a channel of knowledge spillovers in improving quality of countries' output. In measuring export quality, sophistication of a country's export basket is utilized. Utilizing panel data of countries for the period 2002-2015 and applying GMM methodology, the results indicate that the level of financial development, the quality of human capital and globalization of a country have a determinant role on the relation between knowledge spillover channels and the quality of exports. Patent applications generally positively affect sophistication of exports. FDI serves as a channel for knowledge spillovers to benefit the sophistication level of exports only for developed, more educated, financially developed and globalized countries.

The aim of this paper is to analyse and evaluate the directions of changes in the development of entrepreneurship in the regions of the Visegrad Group countries, i.e., the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, in the period 2004-2018. We carried out research using an entrepreneurship model based on the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) methodology. The literature analysis made it possible to formulate the main research hypothesis, which states that the factors of entrepreneurship development in this period had a different impact on the establishment of enterprises at the level of regions in the Visegrad Group countries. Assigning individual regions of these countries to entrepreneurship classes in the investigated years showed significant differences, which means that the NUTS 2 regions of the Visegrad Group countries differ significantly in terms of entrepreneurship development conditions.

The sustainable development of the digital economy has attracted wide attention. To ex-plore how to improve the operational performance of China's digital firms, this paper conducts an influence mechanism model to test the nonlinear effect, heterogeneity effects, and mediation effects using a panel data of China's digital firms from 2008 to 2017. The empirical results indicate that R&D subsidies have an inverted U-shaped effect on operational performance, and these results are still valid after a series of robustness tests. In addition, we find that R&D subsidies have a heterogeneous effect on operational performance in terms of region, company size, governance structure, and executive education background. Moreover, regarding the influence mechanism, R&D subsidies improve operational performance by improving innovation efficiency. This paper proposes some policy implications to improve the operational performance of China's digital firms.

This study aims to evaluate the effects of selected key factors on health outcomes. Unfortunately, statistical reporting in this field is not harmonized, and in some countries it is completely absent. For this reason, valuable information for health determinant analysis may be lacking or overlooked. Using two different databases, we obtained data from 61 countries for the period 2000-2015. To analyse panel data with over 660 observations, a linear mixed model was applied. This paper contributes to the health economics debate by statistically testing the relationship between health outcomes and variables such as healthcare personnel, healthcare expenditure and infrastructure. The results confirm the importance of healthcare expenditure and healthcare infrastructure. However, the size and direction of the effect vary among countries with different income levels. In regard to human resources, the number of doctors proved to have a significant effect only in lower-income countries.

Based on data for cities and enterprises in China from 2009 to 2020, we examine the effect of urban greening construction on corporate technological innovation. Urban greening con-struction has a pronounced promoting effect on the technological innovation of enterprises, which is more significant among enterprises in the Eastern Region, enterprises in heavily polluting industries and state-owned enterprises. However, urban greening construction only has a significant promoting effect on enterprise invention and green patent applications and has no significant promoting effect on utility models and design patent applications. In addition, urban greening construction mainly enhances enterprise technological innovation by strengthening enterprise environmental responsibility undertaking, enhancing urban human capital density, and improving urban air quality. Promoting the urban marketability process can significantly enhance the role of urban greening construction in enterprise technological innovation.

We examine the growth effects of public and private investment by using data for a large sample of countries. For the full sample, our dynamic panel estimations indicate that both public and private investment have strong positive effects on growth. Our estimations for income levels also show that the impacts of both public and private investment are positive and statistically significant for developing countries. Interestingly, public and private investment promote growth in developing countries with effective and ineffective governments. It seems that countries can significantly benefit from investment regardless of their institutional quality levels. Furthermore, the effect of public investment generally appears to be larger than that of private investment. Given the robust relationship between investment and growth in both ineffective and effective developing countries, an important policy implication of our study is that both types of investment should be encouraged to foster economic growth.

This paper tests how important the time value of money (TVM) principle is in decision making in real-life conditions, when different selection criteria can be considered. A three-stage survey was administered to students from a Romanian university of economics. They were asked to choose between two cars. These cars have equal total cash outflows but different present values. The benefits from using them were not specified, thus inducing a model ambiguity: respondents may consider only cash flows, but they can consider other benefits, too. It was tested whether the answers remain stable when supplementary information is provided. The respondents explained their motivations. Probit regressions were used to explain the preferences for applying or not applying TVM, for switching from one answer to another, and for converging to a response compatible with a preference for TVM. TVM was not the main selection criterion. Financial education had no impact on the opinion.