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Outreach and Effects of the ECB Corporate Sector Purchase Programme

Jakub Jakl

Prague Economic Papers 2020, 29(3):291-314 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.729

This paper analyses the effects of the ECB Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) on yields of corporate sector bonds and its impact on the corporate sector's debt markets. The CSPP started as a part of an existing asset purchase programme and significantly affected corporate bond markets. Any research undertaken in this area of the ECB's respective actions is fairly limited due to the restrained access to data and its OTC nature. This paper analyses CSPP effects by using two distinct methods - a detailed regression-controlled event study and an impulse-response analysis of constructed VAR models. This study addresses questions regarding time, size and place of effects caused by the CSPP on corporate bond markets and deals in detail with related issues and related economic theory backgrounds. A series of obtained sector, country and company-specific results gives us a picture of the non-negligible impact of the CSPP on purchased bonds and of the size and persistency of stock and flow effects of the ECB's actions.

Selected Socioeconomic Determinants of the Size of the Nonprofit Sector Serving Households in the OECD Countries

Jindřich Špička, Markéta Arltová, Petr Boukal

Prague Economic Papers 2019, 28(3):276-295 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.671

The article investigates the differences in socioeconomic determinants of the size of the nonprofit sector serving households in the wealthy and less wealthy OECD countries. Based on panel data modelling of 22 wealthy OECD countries and 17 less wealthy OECD countries in the long-term period 2000-2014, authors revealed distinctive determinants of the size of the nonprofit sector serving households in the wealthy and less wealthy countries. The model identified GDP per capita, government health care expenditures per capita, number of refugees per hundred thousand inhabitants and unemployment rate as significant long-term determinants of the size of the nonprofit sector in the wealthy OECD countries. Alternatively, GDP per capita, age and educational structure are significant long-term determinants of the size of the nonprofit sector in the less wealthy OECD countries. Authors found opposing effect of GDP per capita on the size the nonprofit sector between the two groups of countries.

Neither Parasite nor Paragon: Are Business Groups a Source of Competitive Power?

Ömer T. Doruk

Prague Economic Papers 2022, 31(2):143-168 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.800

While profit persistence has been widely examined in the current literature, there have been no extensive studies on the link between business group membership and profit persistence on an emerging market. Using panel data econometric methods, this article examines the link between profit persistence and membership in a large industrialists' group, also known as the TUSIAD (Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Foundation), in the Turkish manufacturing sector in the period 1990-2017. The findings show that the re- lative magnitude of profit persistence of firms with TUSIAD membership is higher than those without TUSIAD membership in the Turkish manufacturing sector.

Analysing Impact of Economic Crises on Sector Profits with a New Approach

İsmail Cakmak, Selcen Öztürk

Prague Economic Papers 2023, 32(3):225-245

The manufacturing sector has been regarded as a key factor in the history of economic devel-opment and growth. However, economic fluctuations affect manufacturing seriously. This study examines the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on Turkish manufacturing sector profit-ability. This paper uses micro-econometric difference in differences methods in conjunction with the macroeconomic forecasting method to investigate how profit levels in the Turkish manufacturing industry are affected by the crisis. The results indicate that the profit levels changed significantly after the crisis with a one-year lag and actual profits exceeded the estimated profits in the later years. Economic impacts of crises have long been investigated; however, this paper differs from the literature in using a new analytical framework for the issue. The suggested method can be expanded to other areas, which can spark new future studies.

Placing the Czech Shadow Banking Sector under the Light

Martin Hodula, Martin Macháček, Aleš Melecký

Prague Economic Papers 2020, 29(1):3-28 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.710

The size of the shadow banking sector (SBS) has more than doubled in the Czech Republic over the last decade. This places a potential burden on policy makers. On the one hand, the SBS complements regular banking by expanding access to credit and investments, enabling better risk sharing and maturity transformation, and sup-porting market liquidity. On the other hand, SBS activities can put the stability of the financial system at risk and amplify its procyclicality by exacerbating the build-up of leverage and asset price bubbles. We implement a FAVAR model of the Czech economy to determine the impact of macroeconomic factors on the SBS. We find that the SBS: (i) is sensitive to changes in market interest rates and term spread; (ii) exhibits great procyclicality; (iii) can act as a complement to regular banking and satisfy some additional demand for credit. We also define some potential risks of continued growth of the SBS, linked to our empirical evidence.

Impact of Implementation of IFRS 9 on Czech Banking Sector

Oľga Pastiranová, Jiří Witzany

Prague Economic Papers 2021, 30(4):449-469 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.775

 The aim of this study is to provide an overview of the principles of IFRS 9 implementation and to analyse its impact on the Czech banking sector. Unlike the previous IAS 39 standard, valid until the end of 2017, the new accounting rules require banks to estimate forward-looking expected credit losses (ECL) while considering relevant exposure level information as well as available macroeconomic predictions. Due to the increased complexity of the ECL models and changing macroeconomic expectations, we hypothesize that the new standard leads to increased volatility of loan loss allowances. This hypothesis is empirically tested and more or less confirmed by an analysis of the quarterly flows of allowances for a sample of large Czech banks from the years 2016-2017 under IAS 39 and from 2018-2019 under IFRS 9.

Foreign Trade as a Tool to Strengthen the EU's Competitiveness Against China (A Case of the Service Sector)

Peter Baláž, Michaela Královičová, Dušan Steinhauser

Prague Economic Papers 2020, 29(2):129-151 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.731

The paper analyses some aspects of EU-China trade relations. Correlation analysis was applied to quantify the extent of the influence of the foreign trade with China on the overall foreign trade of the five members of the EU that have the largest foreign trade with China. Given the ongoing trade deficits of the EU with China, we decided to apply the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI) to determine the extent of their trade complementarity. Our initial hypothesis that the economies are highly complementary was rejected. We thus decided to apply the TCI to the EU's trade relations with the US. For the US, the TCI confirmed the existence of high trade complementarity. This implies that the EU can strengthen its negotiating power with China by increasing its trade diversification. These conclusions were also supported by our econometric model. A thorough analysis of EU-China trade relations also revealed the growth potential of the trade in services, which is gaining its momentum given the turbulences in global trade. The paper suggests that the EU needs to strengthen its trade relations with its "natural trade partners" instead of concentrating on China. The paper's focus on trade in services is a major contribution as it has so far been neglected in the economic literature.

The Institutional-Economic Nexus in Driving Greenfield FDI to European Countries

Ľubica Štiblárová

Prague Economic Papers 2026, 35(1):28-55 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.903

While theoretical perspectives often emphasize the role of high-quality institutions in attracting foreign investors, empirical findings remain rather mixed. This study advances existing research by exploring the interplay between quality of institutions and economic development in driving greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) in European countries. The results do not suggest that better institutions alone directly help attract FDI in the selected European sample from 2003-2022. However, in more economically developed host countries, institutional quality plays a significant role, whether measured by real GDP per capita or GNI per capita. Further analysis reveals that both legal and political components of institutional quality have a beneficial conditional effect in more developed countries. Conversely, this finding does not hold uniformly across all FDI; it applies to FDI in the services sector but not in manufacturing, which may be explained by efficiency-seeking motives.

The Hold-up Problem and Banking Relationships: Evidence from the Polish SME Sector

Marcin Grzelak

Prague Economic Papers 2019, 28(6):670-687 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.727

This paper investigates how lender-borrower relationships affect credit cost for small and medium sized companies (SMEs). We use data within the period 2006–2015 for the Polish SME sector and deploy panel regression models to analyse how the number and length of banking relationships influence the financial costs of a random sample of Polish SMEs. We document that the price of capital decreases as relationships progress. Outcomes of the research are thus inconsistent with the “hold-up” hypothesis. Moreover, we find evidence that supports the view that multiple banking relationships generate more financial benefits for companies than a relationship with one lender.

The Reverse Banzhaf and Shapley - Shubik Index for SMEs in Slovak Medical Labs

Zuzana Čičková, Monika Ferenčáková, Peter Peťko

Prague Economic Papers 2026, 35(1):97-120 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.905

This study examines the potential for cooperation between traditionally competitive small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the sector 86901 - Medical laboratory services in Slovakia as a strategy to enhance competitiveness in the face of large market players. By building coalitions, SMEs can overcome natural disadvantages, such as limited economies of scale, a lack of capital, or limited access to innovation. In this article, we will focus on the possibilities of applying the Banzhaf and Shapley - Shubik indices, as well as their reverse interpretation, to quantify the individual strength of a player within potential coalition groupings, with an emphasis on Slovak SMEs. The quantification of the indices considers key regulatory elements, including compliance with antitrust laws, and these legal frameworks are crucial for promoting fair competition while enabling SMEs to reap the benefits of cooperation.

The impact of traditional and digital financial inclusion on bank profitability: Evidence from Ethiopian commercial banks

Mohammed Jatoro Arebo, Andualem Goshu Mekonnen

Prague Economic Papers 2026, 35(1):121-165 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.904

While prior research emphasizes the socio-economic benefits of financial inclusion, its implications for bank profitability remain underexplored. This paper employs seven traditional and four digital indicators to create a financial inclusion index through principal component analysis (PCA). To capture potential nonlinearities, quadratic specifications are incorporated within a two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) framework and validated using the Lind and Mehlum (2010) U-shape test, while Granger causality tests examine directional effects over the 2015-2023 period. Results indicate that traditional financial inclusion positively influences profitability, although the hypothesized inverted U-shaped effect is economically plausible but not statistically confirmed. Digital financial inclusion initially reduces profitability, but its squared term reveals a statistically significant U-shaped effect, indicating gains after reaching a critical threshold. Granger causality test indicates a bi-directional relationship for traditional inclusion and a uni-directional for digital inclusion. The results emphasize the need for banks to integrate cost-effective digital tools alongside traditional services. Policymakers recommended adopting supportive regulatory frameworks, enhancing financial literacy, and ensuring consumer protection to foster digital transformation without undermining profitability. An integrated and phased approach aligning financial inclusion with profitability strategies is essential for promoting a resilient and inclusive banking sector.

Hidden Consequences of Consumer Protection on the Financial Market: Regulation-introduced Bias

Jiří Šindelář, Petr Budinský

Prague Economic Papers 2024, 33(3):277-318 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.862

This paper deals with the problem of how the risk perception among retail customers is affected by the consumer protection regulation on the financial market. Through a questionnaire survey, we have measured the effect of selected consumer protection measures on banking or investment decisions taken by a young (student) population. These measures included the most common elements of financial regulation, such as bank deposit insurance, corporate bond prospectus, licenced fund management and securities broker indemnity insurance. Our results show that protective state intervention represents strong stimuli for customer decision-making with a widely misleading effect. It overshadows other factors, including individual qualification, risk-reward preference and demographic attributes, all of which were found to be insignificant. Since the surveyed measures reached a similar level of effect yet they offer different substance, this outcome has important policymaking implications.

Financial Stability and Income Inequality in Developing Countries

Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, Godfrey Marozva

Prague Economic Papers 2022, 31(6):464-481 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.815

This paper examines the relationship between financial stability and income inequality in 35 developing countries from 2004 to 2020 using system generalized method of mo- ments (GMM) estimation. Four dimensions of the financial sector, namely financial stability, depth, access and efficiency were included as regressors. The results for the relationship of each of the financial dimensions with income inequality are mixed. In this study, inequality increases with an increase in the stability of the financial sector; on the contrary, the depth of the financial sector reduces inequality. Furthermore, not only does the dimension of the financial sector matter in addressing income inequality issues, but the quality of institutions is important. It is important for policy makers to understand linkages between financial dimensions and inequality so as to come up with appropriate prudential regulatory mechanisms.

ESG Resilience Amid Financial Distress: the Role of Board Gender Diversity in EU Firms

Süreyya Yilmaz Ozekenci, Cansu Unver Erbas, Suzan Dsouza

Prague Economic Papers 2025, 34(4):470-494 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.902

Investors often view financial distress, defined as a company’s inability to pay its debts on time, as a sign of declining creditworthiness. However, they also consider non-financial data, such as the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) activities of firms, when making decisions. This study investigates the impact of financial distress on ESG scores among European Union (EU) firms, using firm fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) models, along with Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG), and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators. The panel data covers the years from 2013 to 2023. To examine the relationship between financial distress and ESG scores, the study employs the board gender diversity variable, which reflects the ratio of female to male representation on a firm’s board of directors, as a moderating factor. The Altman Z-score is used as an indicator of financial distress. The findings indicate that firms experiencing higher financial distress tend to have higher ESG scores. However, a higher percentage of women on the board of directors during periods of financial distress appears to mitigate this relationship in ESG scores overall, as well as for individual components. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, a high percentage of women on the managerial boards of firms during financial distress has a negative impact on ESG scores across the sampled EU firms. This research adds valuable insights into how financial distress and board gender diversity interact, contributing to the existing literature on the subject.

The Determinants of Inward FDI in Selected ServiceS Industries in MalaysiA

Tham Siew Yean, Andrew Jia-Yi Kam, Nirwan bin Noh

Prague Economic Papers 2018, 27(2):215-231 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.652

In its drive to achieve a high-income country status, Malaysia aspires to attract more private investment into the services sector. However, empirical studies on the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI), especially in the services sector, are sparse, even more so at the industry level. The location theory asserts that FDI inflows into a host country are determined by variables related to resources, infrastructure, market conditions, cost and business environment. This paper investigates the validity of the location theory on Malaysia using a set of panel data for eight services industries from 2003 to 2010. We find that at the industry level, market size, ICT infrastructure and human capital have significantly influenced FDI inflows into the services sector. However, the impact of FDI liberalisation is not significant compared to the dynamic changes of the other variables as progress in FDI liberalization is slow and limited.

ESG Score Uncertainty and Excess Stock Returns: European Stock Market Case

Michal Vyletelka

Prague Economic Papers 2024, 33(2):137-163 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.854

The study explores a relationship between divergence in ESG scores (measurements of a company's performance in environmental, social and governance issues) and excess stock returns on the European equity market. The sample consists of 851 European stocks in the period from January 2015 to May 2022. It is concluded that, despite previous findings on the US stock market, a similar effect is not observed for equities in Europe. Even though the stock portfolios with the most and the least divergent ESG scores bear excess returns, the effect disappears when it is adjusted for Fama-French factors. The effect is not relevant for any specific industry, nor does it depend on the level of ESG awareness of the issuer's country. Deeper exploration of the nature of ESG score divergence, specifically by decomposition of the individual elements of ESG scores, could further contribute to the understanding of the relationship between the quality of non-financial disclosures and stock performance.

Cross-Currency Basis Spread and Its Impact on Corporate Lending Rates in the Czech Banking Sector

Dušan Staniek

Prague Economic Papers 2020, 29(6):688-709 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.747

For successful monetary policy implementation, it is crucial to know the pricing behaviour of banks and the determinants of banks' lending rates. With the onset of the global financial crisis, markets in unsecured lending ceased to provide a reliable level of market costs, while markets in cross-currency products gained significance. The aim of this research is to gauge the extent to which the EUR-CZK cross-currency basis spread is reflected in the corporate lending rates provided by Czech banks. We discovered that just over 50% of the changes in the basis pass through to the lending rates. The greater part of this pass-through can be identified in EUR lending rates, which are, as a result, higher. In the case of CZK, the negative basis should tend to decrease the lending rates. However, the impact is fairly limited, and we were not able to confirm any significant long-run relationship.

Tax Competition in the Era of Financial Globalization: An Empirical Non-Linear Analysis for European Countries

İrem Didinmez, Nazmiye Tekdemir, Pelin Varol İyidoğan

Prague Economic Papers 2025, 34(4):442-469 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.901

The aim of this study is to empirically investigate how financial globalization affects tax competition, focusing on implicit and effective tax rates across 29 European countries over the period 2010-2021. Our linear dynamic panel findings suggest that while financial globalization increases implicit tax rates on labor and consumption, it exerts downward pressure on corporate tax rates. The non-linear analysis further reveals threshold effects, where the influence of financial globalization varies depending on its intensity. These results highlight the critical role of tax policy adjustments in response to globalization, emphasizing the need for international regulatory coordination to mitigate the adverse effects of tax competition.

The Conspicuous Consumption Phenomenon in Saudi Arabia

Alotaibi Mohamed Meteb

Prague Economic Papers 2024, 33(6):731-763 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.881

With Saudi Arabia's tendency to implement a policy of economic openness to the world from the early 1980s, the phenomenon of conspicuous consumption (society of consumption and imitation) has increased. Due to the adoption of the concepts of economic globalization, changing consumption patterns, tourism and travelling and the spread of multi-national companies which market and promote their products over different mass media, this phenomenon has remarkably gone up. Over time, the effects of this phenomenon have spread to low-income groups, especially young people, and it has been a motive for some young people to earn money illegally to afford it. In addition, banks and financial institutions are providing financial facilities to individuals to finance unjustified conspicuous consumption. This paper aims to identify the concept of this phenomenon at the social, economic and cultural levels. It aims to clarify the most significant factors affecting this phenomenon and its subsequent economic and social effects and risks. Then, it provides suitable recommendations to curb this phenomenon spread in the future. This paper conducted social survey via a sample questionnaire for (300) respondents in three different areas in Saudi Arabia. The survey was conducted during the period from January 2023 till September 2023. It has used also Household Income and Expenditure Survey by General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) in Saudi Arabia (2007, 2013, and 2018). The results of this paper indicate that social status and the dominance of customs and traditions, bank facilities and installment sales play a major role in increasing the phenomenon of conspicuous consumption in Saudi Arabia. This paper recommends rationalizing conspicuous consumption to reduce its negative economic effects in the future, achieving efficiency in the use of resources, reducing waste, and spreading the culture of saving and investment in Saudi society.

Risk-return Portfolio Level Trade-off for Czech Banks

Pavel Jankulár

Prague Economic Papers 2024, 33(2):187-219 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.859

This paper examines the validity of the risk-return trade-off for a sample of Czech banks over the period 2002-2022 by analysing the relationship between the bank risk and risk-adjusted returns. I find evidence of a significant negative association between the regulatory risk measure and risk-adjusted returns, indicating that the risk-return trade-off does not hold. Specifically, a 100 bps increase in the risk is associated with about a 7 bps decrease in the return on risk-adjusted assets (RORWA) and an 11 bps decrease in the risk-adjusted net interest margin (rNIM) in the short run. The long-run effect is about double for RORWA and almost triple for rNIM. I also find evidence that during the period of low interest rates, the effect for RORWA was about a half smaller, albeit still negative. On the contrary, when non-regulatory measures of risk or risk-adjusted profitability are used, the risk-return trade-off seems to hold.

Non-linear Impacts of Public Debt on Growth, Investment and Credit: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Approach

Taner Turan, Pelin Varol Iyidogan

Prague Economic Papers 2023, 32(2):107-128 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.825

This paper examines the effects of public debt on the growth rate, investment and domestic credit provided to private sector using the dynamic panel threshold regression method for a large number of developing countries, namely 53 (48) economies for growth and invest-ment (credit) regressions. Our results suggest that public debt does not have a significant impact on the economic growth rate. Despite a strong negative effect of public debt on the total investment, our results do not support the existence of a (strong) threshold effect of public debt on total (private) investment. On the other hand, we present evidence for a threshold effect of public debt on public investment and credit. More precisely, public debt leads to a reduction in public investment and credit when the public debt exceeds the estimated threshold levels. Since public debt matters for investment and credit, it is important to ensure fiscal discipline and prudence in the long term.

Impact of Financial Market Development, Financial Crises and Deposit Insurance on Bank Risk

Yiming Chang, Xiangyuan Yu, Wei Shan, Fang Wang, Yinying Tao

Prague Economic Papers 2023, 32(1):1-25 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.820

This paper examines the impact of financial market development, financial crises and deposit insurance on bank risk based on macro data of 86 countries during the period 1998-2014. The results show that banking sector development and stock market development have opposing effects on bank risk measured as bank non-performing loan ratio. The introduction of an explicit deposit insurance system plays a significant role in reducing banks’ risk. However, the bank market development after the introduction of this system also increases banks’ risk. The impact of financial market development and deposit insurance system on banks’ risk was more significant before the 2008 financial crisis. It is found that there is a nonlinear relationship between financial market development, deposit insurance, financial crises and banks’ risk. The stock market development has an asymmetric effect on banks’ risk.

Analysis of the Financial Behaviour of Czech Municipalities as a Possibility for International Comparisons

Filip Hrůza

Prague Economic Papers 2023, 32(4):389-410 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.837

From the general perspective, municipalities are economic organisations like private companies with their legal subjectivity, own revenues, and property. To better understand their financial management, it is desirable to conduct relevant empirical research, which lacks in the case of the Czech municipal sector and Czech municipalities. This paper aims to analyse and identify the financial behaviour of Czech municipalities within the post-crisis period focusing on the influence of internal and external vulnerability factors. The panel data and linear regression model (fixed-effect model) were used to evaluate how an external crisis affected the financial management of municipalities. The behaviour of municipal financial management is reflected through financial health, financial dependency, or budget rigidity. The outcomes of the analysis are presented and put into perspective with relevant international research.

IPO Listing Review and Corporate Tax Avoidance: Evidence from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in China

Xiaohong Yu, Maonan Chen, Yujun Wu, Dinglun Wang

Prague Economic Papers 2024, 33(6):764-800 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.882

IPO listing review via comment letters is an important mechanism to improve the quality of listed firms, while its impact on corporate post-listing behaviors is not clear. Using China's Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR market) listed firms, this paper examines the impact of IPO listing review on corporate post-listing tax avoidance behavior. The empirical tests show that the increase of listing review intensity is significantly associated with lower corporate tax avoidance activities of firms after listing. Using textual analysis methods and mediating analysis, this study finds that the decrease effect of listing review on corporate tax avoidance activities is mainly associated with comment letter questions that monitor the characteristics of R&D activities and compliance with operations and information disclosure. The empirical findings support the "Bonding Hypothesis" about the IPO listing review. Further research shows that for non-state-owned firms, firms with low institutional investors shareholding, and firms listed through profitability-related listing criteria, their post-listing tax avoidance activities are more affected by the listing review intensity. Overall, the empirical findings of this study empirically support to the claim that the interactions between stock exchange and equity issuing firms via comment letters during the IPO process play a significant role in monitoring corporate posting-listing behavior. This study helps to reveal the actual effect and strong transmission between the exchange-led IPO listing review and corporate post-listing behaviors, and expands research findings on tax avoidance as well as the effectiveness of IPO comment letters.

Do Machine Learning Techniques Outperform Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models in Inflation Forecasting?

Bogdan Oancea, Mihaela Simionescu, Richard Pospisil

Prague Economic Papers 2025, 34(4):495-558 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.898

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Romania and other Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries faced some of the highest inflation rates in the European Union, creating a pressing need for accurate short-term forecasts to guide monetary policy. This study compares modern machine learning (ML) methods - Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, Random Forests (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) - with traditional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models in forecasting Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Using quarterly data for Romania (2006Q1-2023Q4) and monthly data for nine CEE economies (2006M1-2025M3), we incorporate unemployment and sentiment indicators derived from the Romanian Central Bank reports and the European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). We further evaluate model performance through simulation experiments that include high persistence, moving-average non-invertibility, nonlinear regimes, and structural breaks. Across both empirical and LSTM and SVR models - they frequently deliver lower forecast errors than ARDL, with LSTM achieving up to 53% reductions in mean squared error relative to naïve benchmarks. However, ARDL remains competitive when sentiment indices are the main predictor. These findings highlight that while advanced ML models can capture nonlinear dynamics and regime changes, traditional econometric tools still provide valuable robustness, particularly in sentiment-driven contexts. Overall, integrating ML, econometric approaches, and sentiment analysis offers a more reliable toolkit for short-horizon inflation forecasting under economic uncertainty.

Multiple Large Shareholders, Investment Efficiency and Corporate Tax Avoidance: Evidence from China

Xiaohong Yu, Maonan Chen, Yujun Ye

Prague Economic Papers 2024, 33(1):103-136 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.851

This study assesses the relationship between the ownership structure and corporate tax avoidance based on annual financial data of Chinese A-share listed firms during 2010-2020. Firstly, the empirical results demonstrate that when a listed firm has multiple large shareholders (MLS), these shareholders are likely to weaken internal monitoring and collude with each other, which will lower its corporate governance level and increase its corporate tax avoidance (CTA) level. The empirical conclusion remains valid after multiple robustness tests. Secondly, the empirical result of the baseline model is significantly influenced by the nature of ownership, the quality of external audit, the tracking of securities analysts and the firm's location. Finally, the result of our mediating effect analysis shows that the presence of MLS reduces the company investment efficiency, which provokes firms to make aggressive financial choices to obtain resources to ensure their future development.

Paradox of Excess Liquidity in European Emerging and Transition Economies

Albulenë Kastrati

Prague Economic Papers 2022, 31(1):79-114 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.793

European emerging and transition economies are in immense need of investments and renewal of capital, yet they produce a considerable amount of unutilized resources. In particular, banks hold excess liquidity in the face of seemingly profitable lending opportunities. Is it a demand-side or supply-side problem or is this region entirely different and have we been working under the wrong paradigm? This study creates a new estimate of excess liquidity by taking into account banks' overall liquidity position. Breaking down precautionary from involuntary excess liquidity, a significant presence of the latter is evident. A part of the story deals with insensitivity of deposits to interest rates. Based on our standard understanding of how banks work, this is puzzling and this study creates a new way to look at this. Using new measures is the way to launch the investigation of causes and policy implications for involuntary excess liquidity.

Sectoral Price Stickiness and Inflation Persistence in Poland: A Two-Sector DSGE Approach

Agnieszka Leszczyńska-Paczesna

Prague Economic Papers 2020, 29(2):152-186 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.735

This paper presents a theoretical model that is suitable for the analysis of price-setting hetero-geneity in a small open economy. The model is based on Benigno and López-Salido's (2006) work and is one of many examples of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that utilizes heterogeneous price stickiness (e.g., Aoki, 2001; Bodenstein et al., 2008). The model allows analyses of a small open economy by extending the existing multisector models using the mechanisms described by Galí and Monacelli (2005). As a result, the model enables monetary policy analyses that take into account existing sectoral differences in the price-setting mechanisms found in an open economy. In the empirical part of the paper, the model is estimated on data for Poland using Bayesian techniques. The results show that the period 1999-2017 saw significant differences in price stickiness and inflation persistence in the sectors that produce food and energy compared with sectors that produce other goods and services.

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