Prague Economic Papers 2022, 31(2):195-213 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.801

Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Asymmetric Adjustment of Nigeria's Bilateral Trade

Oliver E. Ogbonnaa, Hyacinth E. Ichokua
a Department of Economics, University of Nigeria in Nsukka, Nigeria

Motivated by the persistent rise in bilateral trade imbalance in Nigeria, this paper empirically examines whether Nigeria's four trading partners (China, India, the UK and the US) respond asymmetrically to changes in the oil price and exchange rate using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model over the period from January 1999 to December 2019. Interestingly, we find that oil price increase and decrease influence Nigeria's trade balance with four trading partners asymmetrically. Further evidence indicates that oil price increases predominantly exert greater influence than decreases. Furthermore, Nigeria's trade balances with India and the UK in the long run and the US in the short run significantly respond asymmetrically to changes in exchange rate. In addition the result establishes significant evidence of the J-curve pattern in the response of Nigeria's trade balance with the UK to differences in exchange rate.

Klíčová slova: Trade balance, oil price, exchange rate, asymmetry, nonlinear ARDL
JEL classification: C22, F14, F31, F41, Q43

Vloženo: 20. říjen 2021; Revidováno: 17. březen 2022; Přijato: 1. duben 2022; Zveřejněno online: 6. květen 2022; Zveřejněno: 9. květen 2022  Zobrazit citaci

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Ogbonna, O.E., & Ichoku, H.E. (2022). Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Asymmetric Adjustment of Nigeria's Bilateral Trade. Prague Economic Papers, 31(2), 195-213. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.801
Stáhnout citaci
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Zobrazit celý článek

    Reference

    1. Ahad, M., Anwer, Z. (2020). Asymmetrical Relationship between Oil Price Shocks and Trade Deficit: Evidence from Pakistan. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 29(2), 163-180, https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2019.1655782 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    2. Allegret, J.-P., Mignon, V., Allegret Sallenave, A. (2015). Oil Price Shocks and Global Imbalances: Lessons from a Model with Trade and Financial Interdependencies. Economic Modelling, 49(9), 232-247, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.04.009 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    3. Anoke, C. I., Odo, S. I., Ogbonna, B. C. (2016). Effect of Exchange Rate Depreciation on Trade Balance in Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science (IOSR-JHSS), 21(3), 72-81.
    4. Arize, A. C., Malindretos, J., Igwe, E. U. (2017). Do Exchange Rate Changes Improve the Trade Balance: An Asymmetric Nonlinear Cointegration Approach. International Review of Economics & Finance, 49(5), 313-326, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.02.007 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    5. Arouri, M., Tiwari, A., Teulon, F. (2014). Oil Prices and Trade Balance: A Frequency Domain Analysis for India. Economics Bulletin, 34(2), 663-680.
    6. Baek, J. (2020). An Asymmetric Approach to the Oil Prices-Trade Balance Nexus: New Evidence from Bilateral Trade between Korea and Her 14 Trading Partners. Economic Analysis and Policy, 68(12), 199-209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2020.09.013 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    7. Baek, J., Choi, Y. J. (2020). Do Oil Price Changes Really Matter to the Trade Balance? Evidence from Korea-ASEAN Commodity Trade Data. Australian Economic Papers, 59(3), 250-278, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12180 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    8. Baek, J., Ikponmwosa, M. J., Choi, Y. J. (2019). Crude Oil Prices and the Balance of Trade: Asymmetric Evidence from Selected OPEC Member Countries. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 28(5), 533-547, https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2019.1574310 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Baek, J. (2016). Do Exchange Rate Changes Have Symmetric or Asymmetric Effects on the Trade Balance? Evidence from U.S.-Korea Commodity Trade. Journal of Asian Economics, 45(8), 15-30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2016.06.001 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    10. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Fariditavana, H. (2015). Nonlinear ARDL Approach, Asymmetric Effects and the J-Curve. Journal of Economic Studies, 42(3), 519-530. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    11. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Fariditavana, H. (2016). Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the J-Curve Phenomenon. Open Economies Review, 27(1), 51-70, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-015-9369-5 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    12. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Hegerty, S., Zhang, R. (2014). Exchange-rate Risk and UK-China Trade: Evidence from 47 Industries. Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 7(1), 2-17, https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-04-2013-0011 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    13. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Kanitpong, T. (2018). Thailand's Trade Balance with Each of Her 15 Largest Partners: An Asymmetry Analysis. Journal of Economic Studies, 45(3), 660-672, https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-10-2017-0307 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    14. Banerjee, A., Dolado, J., Mestre, R. (1998). Error-Correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single-Equation Framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3), 267-283, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9892.00091 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    15. Brace, N., Kemp, R., Snelgar, R. (2000). SPSS for Psychologists. Antony Rowe Ltd., Chippenham, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-57923-2 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    16. Butkus, M., Karpavičius, H., Matuzevičiūtė, K. (2018). Do Free Trade Regimes and Common Currency Drive Export Growth? Prague Economic Papers, 27(6), 654-667, https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.663 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    17. Francois, J., Manchin, M. (2013). Institutions, Infrastructure, and Trade. World Development, 46(3), 165-175, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.02.009 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    18. Ghodsi, S. H. (2017). Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the Housing Market in the U.S. Doctoral Theses and Dissertations No. 1622, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
    19. Gorodnichenko, Y., Kukharskyy, B., Roland, G. (2015). Culture and Global Sourcing. National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper No. 21198. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    20. Greenwood-Nimmo, M., Shin, Y. (2013). Taxation and the Asymmetric Adjustment of Selected Retail Energy Prices in the UK. Economics Letters, 121(3), 411-416, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.09.020 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    21. Gulay, E. (2019). The Nexus Prevalent in Nonlinear Finance and Growth in the Presence of Macroeconomic Instability in Turkey: Does the Stock Market Really Matter? Business and Economic Horizons, 15(1), 1-19, https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.287246 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    22. Hassan, S. A., Zaman, K. (2012). Retracted: Effect of Oil Prices on Trade Balance: New Insights into the Cointegration Relationship from Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 29(6), 2125-2143, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.07.006 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    23. Hatemi-J, A., Irandoust, M. (2005). Bilateral Trade Elasticities: Sweden versus Her Major Trading Partners. American Review of Political Economy, 3(2), 38-50, https://doi.org/10.38024/arpe.88 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    24. Hornok, C., Koren, M. (2015). Administrative Barriers to Trade. Journal of International Economics, 96(1), 110-122, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.01.002 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    25. Igue, N. N., Ogunleye, T. S. (2014). Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Nigeria. African Development Review, 26(2), 347-358, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12086 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    26. Jibril, H., Chaudhuri, K., Mohaddes, K. (2020). Asymmetric Oil Prices and Trade Imbalances: Does the Source Of the Oil Shock Matter? Energy Policy, 137, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111100 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    27. Jibrilla Aliyu, A., Tijani, M. S. (2015). Asymmetric Cointegration between Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in Nigeria. Cogent Economics & Finance, 3(1), 1-19, https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2015.1045213 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    28. Kocaarslan, B., Soytas, M. A., Soytas, U. (2020). The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices, Interest Rates and Oil Price Uncertainty on Unemployment in the US. Energy Economics, 86(3), 104625, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104625 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    29. Laffer, A. B. (1977). Exchange Rates, the Terms of Trade, and the Trade Balance. In: Effects of exchange rate adjustments. Washington: Treasury Dept., OASIA Res.
    30. Le, T. H., Chang, Y. (2013). Oil Price Shocks and Trade Imbalances. Energy Economics, 36(3), 78-96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.12.002 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    31. Liew, K. S., Lim, K. P., Hussain, H. (2003). Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Relationship: The Experience of ASEAN Countries. International Trade, 307003, 1-11.
    32. Lin, J., Flachsbarth, I., von Cramon-Taubadel, S. (2020). The Role of Institutional Quality on the Performance in the Export of Coconut Products. Agricultural Economics, 51(2), 237-258, https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12552. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    33. Magee, S. P. (1973). Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 303-325, https://doi.org/10.2307/2534091 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    34. Mathur, S. K., Shekhawat, A. (2018). Exchange Rate Nonlinearities in India's Exports to the USA. Studies in Economics and Finance, 38(1), 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-07-2015-0179 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    35. Miles, M. A. (1979). The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and the Balance of Payments: Some New Results. Journal of Political Economy, 87(3), 600-620. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    36. Nyangarika, A. M., Mikhaylov, A. Y., Tang, B. (2018). Correlation of Oil Prices and Gross Domestic Product in Oil Producing Countries. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(5), 42-48.
    37. Ogbonna, B. C. (2011). The Impact of Exchange Rate Variations on Trade Balance: Evidence from Nigeria, 1970-2005. Journal of Research in National Development, 9(2), 393-403.
    38. Ogbonna, O. E., Ichoku, H. (2022). Symmetric or Asymmetric: How is Nigeria's Bilateral Trade Balance Responding to Oil Price and Exchange Rate Changes? Journal of Economic Studies, https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-10-2021-0537 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    39. Omojimite, B. U., Akpokodje, G. (2010). The Impact of Exchange Rate Reforms on Trade Performance in Nigeria. Journal of Social Sciences, 23(1), 53-62, https://doi.org/10.1080/09718923.2010.11892811 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    40. Onatunji, O. (2019). Do Real Exchange Rate Changes Have Symmetric or Asymmetric Effects on Trade Balance in Nigeria? Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL Model. The Review of Finance and Banking, 11(1), 14-23, https://doi.org/10.24818/rfb.19.11.01.02 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    41. Ongan, S., Özdemir, D., Işik, C. (2018). Testing the J-Curve Hypothesis for the USA: Applications of the Nonlinear and Linear ARDL Models. South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 16(1), 21-34.
    42. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326, https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    43. Rafiq, S., Salim, R., Bloch, H. (2009). Impact of Crude Oil Price Volatility on Economic Activities: An Empirical Investigation in the Thai Economy. Resources Policy, 34(3), 121-132, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2008.09.001 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    44. Rafiq, S., Sgro, P., Apergis, N. (2016). Asymmetric Oil Shocks and External Balances of Major Oil Exporting and Importing Countries. Energy Economics, 56(5), 42-50, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.02.019 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    45. Raheem, I. D. (2017). Asymmetry and Break Effects of Oil Price - Macroeconomic Fundamentals Dynamics: The Trade Effect Channel. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 16(11), 12-25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2017.04.002 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    46. Rebucci, A., Spatafora, N. (2006). Oil prices and global imbalances. In: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2006: Globalisation and Inflation, 71-96. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781589065499.081 Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    47. Salant, M. (1976). Devaluations Improve the Balance of Payments even if not the Trade Balance. In: Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustments. Washington: Treasury Dept., OASIA Res.
    48. Shin, Y., Yu, B., Greenwood-Nimmo, M. J. (2013). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. In: Horrace, W., C., Sickles, R., C. (eds.). Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, 281-314. New York: Springer Science & Business Media. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    49. Verma, S. K. (2018). WTO and the Regulation of International Trade Law. In: Contemporary Issues in International Law, 263-272. Singapore: Springer. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    50. Wilson, P., Tat, K. C. (2001). Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance: The Case of Singapore 1970 to 1996. Journal of Asian Economics, 12(1), 47-63. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...

    Tento článek je publikován v režimu tzv. otevřeného přístupu k vědeckým informacím (Open Access), který je distribuován pod licencí Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), která umožňuje nekomerční distribuci, reprodukci a změny, pokud je původní dílo řádně ocitováno. Není povolena distribuce, reprodukce nebo změna, která není v souladu s podmínkami této licence.


    Zpět na obsah