Prague Economic Papers 2020, 29(4):424-444 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.738

Assessing the Job-Finding Probability of Older and Prime-Age Unemployed Workers

Vladislav Fleka, Martin Hálaa, Martina Mysíkováa
a ŠKODA AUTO University, Mladá Boleslav, Czech Republic

We analyse the extent and determinants of somewhat gloomy employment prospects of older unemployed populations in Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia. For this purpose, we explore the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions over the period 2004-2014. Survival estimates suggest that older unemployed workers face lower job-finding probabilities compared to prime-age unemployed workers, while this age-based gap increases with longer unemployment spells. The results of estimating the hazard models reveal that the job-finding probability of older unemployed workers is about 20-25% lower than that of the prime-age group, even after controlling for explanatory covariates and unobserved heterogeneity. Unemployment duration appears to be the major determinant of job-finding probability within both age groups. In contrast, the impact of explanatory covariates (gender, education, household characteristics, etc.) is relatively less robust and/or uniform.

Keywords: Hazard model, job-finding probability, older population, survival function, unemployment duration
JEL classification: J14, J64, J71

Received: January 10, 2019; Revised: June 5, 2019; Accepted: October 22, 2019; Prepublished online: March 13, 2020; Published: August 31, 2020  Show citation

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Flek, V., Hála, M., & Mysíková, M. (2020). Assessing the Job-Finding Probability of Older and Prime-Age Unemployed Workers. Prague Economic Papers, 29(4), 424-444. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.738
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