Prague Economic Papers 2017, 26(3):286-299 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.614
Central Banks Inflation Forecast and Expectations. A Comparative Analysis
- WSB University in Poznan, Finance and Banking Faculty, Poznan, Poland (magdalena.szyszko@wsb.poznan.pl)
The question on the inflation expectations management is one of the most important ones from the central bank's point of view. The inflation forecast can be a helpful tool of managing expectations. If it actually is, the interdependences of the inflation forecast and expectations can be observed. The existence of such interdependences opens the field for determining the preconditions that might support expectations formation. The hypothesis assumes that associations of inflation forecasts and inflation expectations depend on the central bank's credibility and consistency in inflation forecast targeting. The research covers the Czech National Bank, the National Bank of Hungary, the National Bank of Poland and Sveriges Riksbank. The research combines qualitative and quantitative methods. The research uses survey-based expectations quantified with probabilistic method. The main finding is that the relatively high level of credibility and consistency in inflation forecast targeting is not sufficient to achieve strong interdependences of inflation forecast and expectations.
Klíčová slova: inflation forecasts, inflation forecast targeting, inflation expectations, central bank credibility
JEL classification: E52, E58, E61
Zveřejněno: 1. červen 2017 Zobrazit citaci
Reference
- Ang, A., Bekaert, G., Wei M. (2007). Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecasts Inflation Better? Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(4), 1163-1212, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.04.006
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Ball, L., Romer, D. (1990). Real Rigidities and Non-Neutrality of Money. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(2), 183-203, http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2297377
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Bernanke, B. et al. (2001). Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the international Experience, Princeton: Princeton University Press. ISBN: 9780691086897.
- Blinder, A. S. (2000). Central-Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It? American Economic Review, 90(5), 1421-1431, http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.5.1421
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Brzoza-Brzezina, M., Kot, A. (2008). The Relativity Theory Revised: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecast Really so Valuable? National Bank of Poland Working Paper Series No. 52.
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Bulir, A., Hurnik, J., Smidkova, K. (2014). Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write? IMF Working Papers 14/91, International Monetary Fund.
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Cagan, P. (1956). The Monetary Dynamics of Hyper-Inflation, in Friedman M. ed., Studies in the Quantity of Money, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 25-117.
- Calvo, G. (1983). Staggered Prices in Utility-Maximizing Frameworks. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(83)90060-0
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Carlson, J. A., Parkin, J. M. (1975). Inflation Expectations. Economica, 42(166), 123-138, http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2553588
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Caroll, C. D. (2003). Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1), 269-298, http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/00335530360535207
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Debelle, G. (1997). Inflation Targeting in Practice. International Monetary Fund Working Paper No. 35.
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Dias, F., Duarte, C., Rua, A. (2010). Inflation Expectations In the Euro Area: Are the Consumers Rational? Review of World Economics, Springer, 146(3), 591-607, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10290-010-0058-6
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Forsells, M., Kenny, G. (2004). The Rationality of Consumers' Inflation Expectations: Survey-Based Evidence for the Euro Area. Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2004(1), 13-41, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art3-en
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Galí, J. (2008). Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle, An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
- Goodfriend, M. (2007). How the World Achieved the Consensus on Monetary Policy. The Journal of Economic Perspective, 21(4), 47-68, http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.21.4.47
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Kia, A., Patron, H. (2004). Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index, Risk and Volatility - The Case of the United States. Carleton University Economic Papers, No. 7.
- Lama, M. J., Lein, S. M. (2014). The Role of Media for Consumers' Inflation Expectation Formation. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 106, 62-77, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2014.05.004
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- _________ Maag, T. (2012). The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(7), 1325-1350, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00534.x
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Lei, C., Lu, Z. Zhang, Z. (2015). News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations in China. Economic System, 39(4), 644-653, http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.04.006
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Lucas, R. E. (1972). Expectations and the Neutrality of Money. Journal of Economic Theory, 4(2), 103-124, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(72)90142-1
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Łyziak, T. (2003). Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland. European Central Bank Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 287.
- _________ (2014). Inflation Expectations in Poland, 2001-2013. Measurement and Economic Testing. National Bank of Poland Working Paper No. 178.
- Mankiw, N. G. (1985). Small Business Costs and Large Business Cycles. The Quarterly Journal of Economics', 100(2), 529-538, http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1885395
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Mankiw, N. G., Reis, R. (2002). Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1661-1710, http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003355302320935034
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Mitchell, J., Weale, M. (2007). The Rationality and Reliability of Expectations Reported by British Households: Micro Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, No. 19.
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Pesaran, M. H., Weale, M. (2005). Survey Expectation. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0536.
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Pfajfar, D., Santoro, E. (2013). News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(6), 1045-1067, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12043
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Reis, R. (2006a). Inattentive Consumers. Journal of Monetary Economics, 53(8), 1761-1800, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.03.001
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Reis, R. (2006b). Inattentive Producers. Review of Economic Studies, 73(3), 793-821, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937x.2006.00396.x
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Skořepa, M., Kotlán, V. (2003). Assessing Future Inflation in Inflation Targeting: Forecasts or Simulations. Bank for International Settlements Paper No. 19.
- Svensson, L. E. O. (1997). Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets. European Economic Review, 41(6), 1111-1146, dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(96)00055-4
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- _________ (2003). What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules. Journal of Economic Literature, 41(2), 426-477, http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/002205103765762734
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Szyszko, M. (2011). The Interdependences of Central Bank's Forecasts and Economic Agents Inflation Expectations. Empirical Study. National Bank of Poland Working Paper Series No. 105.
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- _________ (2015). Inflation Forecast versus Shaping Inflation Expectations. Comparative Analysis. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 18(4), 139-156, http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/cer-2015-0033
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- _________ (forthcoming). Measurement of Inflation Forecast Targeting. A Proposal of Methodological Solution. Economics&Management._________ Tura, K. (2015). Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of Czech Republic. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economy and Economic Policy, 10(3), 9-26, http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/equil.2015.022
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- Woodford, M. (2012). Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy: Policy Rules in Practice, in Koeing, E. F., Leeson, R., Kahn, G. A. ed., The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy. Stanford: Hoover Institution Press Publication, pp. 185-234.
- Woodford, M. (2003). Interest and Prices. Foundations of Theory of Monetary Policy, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
- European Commission (2007). The Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, User Guide.
- Tomczyk, E. (2010). Analysis of Expectations on the Meso Scale: Use of Contingency Tables, in Stanisławska, E., Tomczyk, E. ed. Inflation Expectations. A View from Various Perspectives. Warsaw: Publishing House of Warsaw School of Economics, pp. 13-42.
Tento článek je publikován v režimu tzv. otevřeného přístupu k vědeckým informacím (Open Access), který je distribuován pod licencí Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), která umožňuje nekomerční distribuci, reprodukci a změny, pokud je původní dílo řádně ocitováno. Není povolena distribuce, reprodukce nebo změna, která není v souladu s podmínkami této licence.