Prague Economic Papers 2011, 20(3):195-215 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.396

Models of Factors Driving the Czech Export

David Havrlant1, Roman Hušek2
1 Czech National Bank (david.havrlant@cnb.cz).
2 University of Economics, Prague (husek@vse.cz); this paper was written with the support of the GA 402/09/0273 Grant from the Czech Science Foundation.

This paper aims to analyze the cost factors that influence the export of the Czech Republic, and to estimate models suitable for quantitative analysis of export and its prediction. According to the macroeconomic theory, the fundamental export factors include foreign demand, domestic and foreign price level and exchange rate. Foreign demand reflects the business cycle of foreign economy, price levels and exchange rate characterize the competitiveness of the exported goods, and the exchange rate determines, among others, the production costs through the prices of imported crucial inputs. Several models are applied to set of these variables, and their impact on the export dynamics of the Czech Republic is evaluated.

Keywords: export, exchange rate, cointegration analysis, VECM, import, producer and energy prices
JEL classification: C22, C53, F47

Published: January 1, 2011  Show citation

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Havrlant, D., & Hušek, R. (2011). Models of Factors Driving the Czech Export. Prague Economic Papers, 20(3), 195-215. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.396
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