Prague Economic Papers 2003, 12(3):265-281 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.218

Can pro-natalist policy be effective?

Marek Loužek
University of Economics, 4, W. Churchill Sq., CZ - 130 67 Prague 3 and Center for Economics and Politics, Politických vězňů 10, CZ - 110 00 Prague 1 (e-mail: louzek@vse.cz).

The article is concerned with pro-natalist policies, examining empirically their effectiveness. There are proposed four hypotheses: continuous decline of the birth rate; adaptive model; natural-rate hypothesis; crowding-out hypothesis. Nine countries are tested: Germany, Italy, Sweden and France before the World War II and Romania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and East Germany during the communism. Best empirical results arise from the crowding-out hypothesis. Good results follow from the adaptive model and the continuous decline of birth rates. The natural-rate hypothesis has small explanatory power. Pro-natalist policies, according to this study, are not too effective.

Klíčová slova: population policy, pro-natalist sentiment, static model, dynamic model, constant decline in the birth rate, adaptive model, natural-rate hypothesis, crowding-out hypothesis
JEL classification: C22, C52, J11, J13

Zveřejněno: 1. leden 2003  Zobrazit citaci

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Loužek, M. (2003). Can pro-natalist policy be effective? Prague Economic Papers, 12(3), 265-281. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.218
Stáhnout citaci
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Zobrazit celý článek

    Reference

    1. Andorka, R. (1989), "Demographic Change and Economic Development in Hungary since the Second World War", in Wenig, A., Zimmermann, K. F., eds., Demographic Change and Economic Development. Berlin, Heidelberg, New York: Springer, pp. 183-201. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    2. Baldeaux, D. (1985), Bevölkerungspolitik der Entwicklungsländer. Beurteilung der Maßnahmen seit der Weltbevölkerungskonferenz 1974. München, Köln, London: Weltforum Verlag.
    3. Barlow, R., Gordon, D. (1974), "Policy Analysis with a Disagregated Economic-demographic Model." Journal of Public Economics, pp. 43-70. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    4. Becker, G. S., Barro, R. J. (1988), "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility." Quarterly Journal of Economics, pp. 1-25. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    5. Becker, G. S. (1991), A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge, MA, London: Harvard University Press.
    6. Besemeres, J. F. (1980), Socialist Population Politics. White Plains. New York: M. E. Sharpe.
    7. Čákiová, E.: "An Examination of the Family and Reproduction" (in Czech). Demografie (2), pp. 8594.
    8. Davis, K. (1977), "Population Policy and the Theory of Reproductive Motivation." Economic Development and Cultural Change, pp. 159-179.
    9. Deardoff, A. V. (1976), "The Growth Rate of Population - Comment." International Economic Review, pp. 510-515. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    10. Demeny, P. (1986), "Population and Invisible Hand." Demography (4), pp. 473-487. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    11. "Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries (1960)." A Conference of the Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research. Princeton, Princeton University Press.
    12. Denton, F. T., Spencer, B. G. (1975), Population and the Economy. Westmead, England: Saxon House; Lexington, MA: Heath & Co.
    13. Dorbritz, J., Fux, B., eds. (1997), Einstellungen zur Familienpolitik in Europa. Ergebnisse eines vergleichenden Surveys in den Ländern des "European Comparative Survey on Population Policy Acceptance" (PPA). München: Boldt.
    14. Driver, E. D., ed. (1971), World Population Policy: An Annotated Bibliography. Toronto, London: D. C. Heath and Company.
    15. Dvořáková, A. (2000), "A Comparison of the Demographic Situation in the Czech Republic and Some EU Countries" (in Czech). Demografie, (4), pp. 253-265.
    16. Easterlin, R. A. (1975), "An Economic Framework for Fertility Analysis." Studies in Family Planning, (3), pp. 54-63. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    17. Easterlin, R. A., ed. (1980), Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries. Chicago, London: The University of Chicago Press.
    18. Feshbach, M. (1986), The Soviet Population Policy Debate. Actors and Issues. Santa Monica: RAND.
    19. Glass, D. V. (1967), Population Policies and Movements in Europe. New York: Augustus M. Kelley.
    20. Godwin, R. K., ed. (1975), Comparative Policy Analysis. The Study of Population Policy Determinants in Developing Countries. Lexington, MA, London: D. C. Heath.
    21. Haag, G., Mueller, U., Troitzsch, K. G., eds. (1992), Economic Evolution and Demographic Change. Formal Models in Social Sciences. Berlin, Heidelberg, New York: Springer. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    22. Hajnal, J. (1947), "The Analysis of Birth Statistics in the Light of the Recent International Recovery of the Birth Rate." Population Studies, (2), pp. 137-160. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    23. Hansen, A. H. (1939), "Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth." The American Economic Review, pp. 1-15.
    24. Heeren, H. J. (1974), "The Declining Population Growth and Population Policy." International Social Science Journal, pp. 244-254.
    25. Höhn, Ch. (1988), "Population Policies in Advanced Societies - Pro-natalist and Migration Strategies." European Journal of Population, (3), pp. 459-482. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    26. Chesnais, J. C. (1992), The Demographic Transition. Stages, Patterns, and Economic Implications. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
    27. "International Transmission of Population Policy Experience" (1990). Proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting on the International Transmission of Population Policy Experience New York City, 27-30 June 1988. New York: United Nations.
    28. Janowitz, B. (1973), "An Econometric Analysis of Trends in Fertility Rates." Journal of Development Studies, (3), pp. 413-415. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    29. Kälvemark, A. S. (1980), More Children of Better Quality? Aspects on Swedish Population Policy in the 1930's. Stockholm, Uppsala.
    30. Keynes, J. M. (1937), "Some Economic Consequences of a Declining Population." Eugenics Review, (1), pp. 13-17.
    31. Kraft, M. E., Schneider, M. (1978), Population Policy Analysis. Toronto, Lexington, MA: D. C. Heath and Company.
    32. Kučera, M. (2001), "Does the Czech Republic Need a Clear Population and Migration Policy?" (in Czech). Demografie (2), pp. 85-92.
    33. Macura, M. (1974), "Components of an International Approach to Population Policy." International Social Science Journal, (2), pp. 195-206.
    34. Maringoff, M. L. (1980), "The Impact of Population Policy upon Social Welfare." Social Service Review, (3), pp. 301-316. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    35. Lane, J. S. (1977), On Optimal Population Path. Berlin, Heidelberg, New York: Springer. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    36. Leibenstein, H. (1974), "An Interpretation of the Economic Theory of Fertility." Journal of Economic Literature, pp. 457-479.
    37. McIntosh, C. A. (1983), Population Policy in Western Europe. Responses to Low Fertility in France, Sweden, and West Germany. New York, London: M. E. Sharpe.
    38. Mirrlees, J. A. (1972), "Population Policy and Taxation of Family Size." Journal of Public Economics, pp. 169-198. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    39. Nerlove, M., Razin, A., Sadka, E. (1987), "Population Policy and Individual Choice: A Theoretical Investigation." International Food Policy Research Institute.
    40. Nerlove, M. (1988), "Population Policy and Individual Choice." Journal of Population Economics, (1), pp. 17-32. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    41. Rabušic, L. (1996), "On the Contemporary Development of Marriage and Family Behavior in the Czech Republic" (in Czech). Demografie, (3), pp. 173-180.
    42. Rabušic, L. (1997), "A Polemic on the Contemporary Changes in the Reproduction in the Czech Republic" (in Czech). Demografie, pp. 114-119.
    43. Rabušic, L. (2001), Where Are All the Children? (in Czech). Prague: Sociological Publishing House.
    44. Razin, A., Sadka, E. (1995), Population Economics. Cambridge, London: MIT Press.
    45. Rychtaříková, J. (1997), "I don't Want to Make this Society Believe that Nothing is Happening" (in Czech). Demografie, (4), pp. 267-268.
    46. Samuelson, P. (1975), "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population." International Economic Review, pp. 531-538. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    47. Sanderson, W., Willis, R. J. (1971), "Economic Models of Fertility: Some Examples and Implications." New York, National Bureau of Economic Research.
    48. Sandre, P. de (1978), "Critical Study of Population Policies in Europe," in Population Decline in Europe. New York: St. Martin's Press, pp. 145-170.
    49. Sheps, M. C., Menken, J. A. (1973), Mathematical Models of Conception and Birth. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
    50. Schultz, T. W., ed. (1974), "Economics of the Family - Marriage, Children and Human Capital." Chicago, London, National Bureau for Economic Research. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    51. Schultz, T. P. (1969), "An Economic Model of Family Planning and Fertility." Journal of Political Economy, (2), pp. 153-180. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    52. Sirageldin, I., Salkever, D., Osborn, R., eds. (1983), Evaluating Population Programs: International Experience with Cost-effectiveness Analysis and Cost-benefit Analysis. London: Croom Helm; New York: St. Martin's Press.
    53. Spengler, J. (1955-56), "Socioeconomic Theory and Population Policy." American Journal of Sociology, pp. 129-133. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...
    54. Srb, V. (1997), "Rabušic Versus Rychtaříková" (in Czech). Demografie, (4), pp. 270-271.
    55. UN (2000), Global Population Policy Database, 1999. New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
    56. Warwick, D. P. (1982), Bitter Pills. Population Policies and their Implementation in Eight Developing Countries. Cambridge, London, New York: Cambridge University Press.
    57. Wenig, A., Zimmermann, K. F., eds. (1989), Demographic Change and Economic Development. Berlin, Heidelberg, New York: Springer. Přejít k původnímu zdroji...

    Tento článek je publikován v režimu tzv. otevřeného přístupu k vědeckým informacím (Open Access), který je distribuován pod licencí Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), která umožňuje nekomerční distribuci, reprodukci a změny, pokud je původní dílo řádně ocitováno. Není povolena distribuce, reprodukce nebo změna, která není v souladu s podmínkami této licence.


    Zpět na obsah