Prague Economic Papers 2003, 12(2):169-186 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.213

Causality between exports and economic growth: empirical estimates for slovenia

Jani Bekõ
Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor, Razlagova 14, 2001 Maribor, Slovenia (e-mail: jani.beko@uni-mb.si).

This paper employs error-correction representation approach and conditional causality technique to assess the patterns of export-economic growth link in Slovenia. In general, the results support the existence of bi-directional causality between export variables and indicators of domestic economic activity. The evidenced bi-directional causality of exportoutput relation for Slovenia suggests that any characterization of a small country's growth as export-driven may be at least perfunctory. As the results imply, there are no trade-offs between whether to pursue a growth strategy of structural reforms for internal competitiveness with the goal of higher domestic growth and afterwards an increasing exports, or to apply trade policy for improving the international competitiveness and enabling the economy a quick response to foreign demand.

Keywords: exports, economic growth and causality
JEL classification: C40, F43

Published: January 1, 2003  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Bekõ, J. (2003). Causality between exports and economic growth: empirical estimates for slovenia. Prague Economic Papers12(2), 169-186. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.213
Download citation

References

  1. Afxentiou, P. C., Serletis, A. (1991), "Exports and GNP Causality in the Industrial Countries." Kyklos, 44, pp. 167-179. Go to original source...
  2. Ahmad, J., Harnhirun, S. (1995), "Unit Roots and Cointegration in Estimating Causality between Exports and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from the ASEAN Countries." Economics Letters, 49, pp. 329-334. Go to original source...
  3. Akaike, H. (1970), "Statistical Predictor Identification." Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 22, pp. 203-217. Go to original source...
  4. Bank of Slovenia. Internal database (Ljubljana).
  5. Bank of Slovenia. Monthly Bulletin, various issues, Ljubljana.
  6. Beckerman, W. H. (1962), "Projecting Europe's Growth." Economic Journal, 288, pp. 912-925. Go to original source...
  7. Bekõ, J. (1999), "Analysis of Import Demand and Export Supply in Slovenia - Empirical Regularities and Stylized Facts." Eastern European Economics, 37, pp. 39-90. Go to original source...
  8. Bekõ, J. (2000), "Exports and Economic Growth: Some Stylized Facts and Preliminary Results about Exogeneity of Exports in Slovenia" (in Slovenian). IB revija, 34, pp. 24-43(a).
  9. Bekõ, J. (2000), "Reconsideration of the Growth Pattern of a Small Economy: Exports and Economic Growth in Slovenia." Maribor. Mimeo(b).
  10. Bole, V. (1994), "Capital Inflow over Households and the Economic Performance" (in Slovenian). Gospodarska gibanja, 10, pp. 23-42.
  11. Charemza, W. W., Deadman, D. F. (1997), New Directions in Econometric Practice. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
  12. Coe, D. T., Helpman, E. (1995), "International R&D Spillovers." European Economic Review, 5, pp. 859-887. Go to original source...
  13. Dickey, D. A., Hasza, D. P., Fuller, W. A. (1984), "Testing for Unit Roots in Seasonal Time Series." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, pp. 355-367. Go to original source...
  14. Engle, R. F., Granger, C. W. J. (1991), "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," in Engle, R. F., Granger, C. W. J., eds., Long-run Economic Relationships, Readings in Cointegration. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  15. Giles, D. E. A., Giles, J. A., McCann, E. (1993), "Causality, Unit Roots and Export-led Growth: The New Zealand Experience." The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2, pp. 195-218.
  16. Giles, J. A., Williams, C. L. (2000), "Export-led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Non-causality Results. Part 1." The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, (9) 3, pp. 261-337(a). Go to original source...
  17. Giles, J. A., Williams, C. L. (2000), "Export-led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Non-causality Results. Part 2." The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, (9) 4, pp. 445-470(b). Go to original source...
  18. Granger, C. W. J. (1988), "Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality." Journal of Econometrics, 39, pp. 199-211. Go to original source...
  19. Greenaway, D., Sapsford, D. (1994), "Exports, Growth, and Liberalization: An Evaluation." Journal of Policy Modelling, 16, pp. 165-186. Go to original source...
  20. Hirsch, S. (1967), Location of Industry and International Competitiveness. London: Oxford University Press.
  21. Hsiao, C. (1979), "Autoregressive Modelling of Canadian Money and Income Data." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, pp. 553-560. Go to original source...
  22. Hsiao, C. (1981), "Autoregressive Modelling and Money-Income Causality Detection." Journal of Monetary Economics, 7, pp. 85-106. Go to original source...
  23. Johansen, S. (1991), "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models." Econometrica, 59, pp. 1551-1580. Go to original source...
  24. Jones, J. D., Joulfaian, D. (1991), "Federal Government Expenditures and Revenues in the Early Years of the American Republic: Evidence from 1792 to 1860." Journal of Macroeconomics, 13, pp. 133-155. Go to original source...
  25. Keller, W. (1997), "Are International R&D Spillovers Trade-related? Analyzing Spillovers among Randomly Matched Trade Partners." Cambridge, MA, NBER Working Paper No. 6065. Go to original source...
  26. Keller, W. (1999), "How Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth." Cambridge, MA, NBER Working Paper No. 6990. Go to original source...
  27. Krugman, P. R. (1979), "Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade." Journal of International Economics, 4, pp. 469-479. Go to original source...
  28. Krugman, P. R. (1980), "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade." The American Economic Review, 5, pp. 950-959.
  29. Marin, D. (1992), "Is Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 74, pp. 678-688. Go to original source...
  30. Markusen, A. R. (1985), Profit Cycles, Oligopoly, and Regional Development. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  31. McCombie, J. S. L., Thirlwall, A. P. (1994), Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint. London: St. Martin's Press. Go to original source...
  32. Mrak, M., Rojec, M., Potoènik, J. (2002), "The Transition Process in Slovenia: Transformation to an EU-compatible Economy." Journal of International Relations and Development, 1, pp. 37-62.
  33. Osborn, D. R., Chui, A. P. L., Smith, J. P., Birchenhall, C. R. (1988), "Seasonality and the Order of Integration for Consumption." Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 50, pp. 361-377. Go to original source...
  34. Pomponio, X. Z. (1996), "A Causality Analysis of Growth and Export Performance." Atlantic Economic Journal, 24, pp. 168-176. Go to original source...
  35. Riezman, R. G., Whiteman, C. H., Summers, P. M. (1996), "The Engine of Growth or its Handmaiden? A Time-series Assessment of Export-led Growth," in Durlauf, S., Helliwell, J. F., Raj, B., eds., Longrun Economic Growth. Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Go to original source...
  36. Sargent, T. J., Wallace, N. (1973), "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation." International Economic Review, 14, pp. 328-350. Go to original source...
  37. Sims, C. A. (1972), "Money, Income, and Causality." The American Economic Review, 62, pp. 540-552.
  38. Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Slovenia. Ljubljana, Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, various issues.
  39. Strojan, A., Kotar, T. (1998), "Concentration of Commodity Trade and the Importance of Intra-industry Trade" (in Slovenian). Prikazi in analize, 1, pp. 40-58.
  40. Thornton, D. L., Batten, D. S. (1985), "Lag-length Selection and Tests of Granger Causality between Money and Income." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 17, pp. 164-178. Go to original source...
  41. Vernon, R. (1966), "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2, pp. 190-207. Go to original source...

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.