Prague Economic Papers 2002, 11(3):201-236 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.195

Analysis of the development of the czech economy in 2001 and outlook for 2002 and 2003

Petr Dufek¹, Marián Vávra¹, Milan Václavík²

¹ Československá obchodní banka, a. s., Na Příkopě 14, CZ - 115 20 Prague 1 (e-mail: pdufek@csob.cz; mvavra@csob.cz).

² TRANSGAS, a. s., Limuzská 12, CZ - 110 00 Prague 10.

This paper evaluates Czech economic development during 2001 and is supplemented by the predictions of basic economic indicators for 2002 and 2003. This article is divided in several parts. In the beginning we focus on economic growth, including a marginal analysis of GDP and industrial production. It is possible to find a detailed net inflation analysis in Chapter three which consists of an explanation of current demand and supply factors and then we present an econometric estimate of the net inflation equation. This chapter includes impulse-response analysis. Raw material dependency and the intensity of Czech production is analyzed in Chapter four, including an econometric estimate of oil and gas prices. In the following chapter - Labour Market - we focus on gross nominal wage determinants in the Czech Republic. In the last two chapters we evaluate fiscal and monetary policy, including an detailed interest rate analysis.

Klíčová slova: econometric estimate, impulse-response analysis, net inflation equation, oil and gas equation, wage determinants, import intensity, energy dependency and intensity

JEL classification: O11, O52

Zveřejněno: 1. leden 2002  Zobrazit citaci