Prague Economic Papers 2000, 9(4) | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.87

Macroeconomic development in the czech republic and accession to the european union

Jan Fidrmuc, Jarko Fidrmuc

This paper discusses the implications of accession of the Czech Republic to the European Union. First, we estimate the potential growth in the enlargement and the non-enlargement scenarios. Second, we provide a structural forecast of GDP components. We show that both forecasts are consistent. Accordingly, GDP growth is forecasted to be 4.5 % and 5.0 % in 2001 - 2004 and 4.2 % and 5.2 % in 2005 - 2010 for the accession and non-accession scenarios, respectively. The accession scenario follows the current cyclical pattern (recession 1998 - 1999, recovery 2000 - 2003, boom 2004 - 2007, and a soft landing in the following years), while the non-accession scenario would extend the current recession until 2005.

Klíčová slova: transition, macroeconomic development, economic performance, growth prospects, process to accession

Zveřejněno: 1. leden 2000  Zobrazit citaci